Lille vs Auxerre Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 34

Post on X

Auxerre

Away

AI call Difficult Lille win or draw

62%

27%

10%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Lille vs Auxerre prediction: Sportiko gives Lille a 62% chance of winning, Auxerre 10% and the draw 27%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Lille suffered a surprise home defeat to Auxerre in Ligue 1, despite dominating possession throughout the match. The hosts controlled 73% of the ball and generated 1.72 expected goals to Auxerre's 0.54, yet were unable to convert their pressure into goals. A 24th-minute effort from Sinaly Diomandé was ruled out by VAR, and Auxerre made Lille pay moments later when Lassine Sinayoko struck in the 32nd minute to send the visitors into the break with a deserved lead.

Lille's evening grew increasingly frustrating in the second half, with four yellow cards distributed across both teams and a flurry of substitutions failing to shift the momentum. Despite their territorial advantage, the hosts managed just three shots on target all game. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lille win as most likely at 62%, a call that proved wide of the mark. Sinayoko wrapped up the result with a second goal deep in stoppage time, his brace securing a composed and disciplined 2–0 victory for Auxerre.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

🖵 24'

Sinaly Diomandé Goal cancelled

⚽ 0–1 32'

Lassine Sinayoko

Hakon Arnar Haraldsson Yellow Card

40' ▮

Nathan Ngoy Yellow Card

43' ▮

HT 0–1

Ngal'ayel Mukau ⇄ Olivier Giroud

46' ⇄

Nabil Bentaleb ⇄ Ethan Mbappé

46' ⇄

Romain Perraud ⇄ Calvin Verdonk

46' ⇄

Benjamin André Yellow Card

60' ▮

Félix Correia ⇄ Osame Sahraoui

62' ⇄

▮ 67'

Danny Namaso Yellow Card

⇄ 72'

Danny Namaso ⇄ Josué Casimir

▮ 81'

Donovan Léon Yellow Card

Hakon Arnar Haraldsson ⇄ Gaëtan Perrin

82' ⇄

⇄ 82'

Sékou Mara ⇄ Marvin Senaya

⚽ 0–2 90'

Lassine Sinayoko assist: Gideon Mensah

FT 0–2

Lille

Match Stats

Auxerre

73% Ball Possession 27%

1.72 Expected Goals (xG) 0.54

12 Total Shots 7

3 Shots on Goal 4

5 Shots off Goal 3

4 Blocked Shots 0

9 Shots insidebox 7

3 Shots outsidebox 0

4 Corner Kicks 2

3 Offsides 2

9 Fouls 16

3 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

617 Total passes 233

548 Passes accurate 157

89% Passes % 67%

0.43 goals_prevented 0.43

Lille

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
32 Ayyoub Bouaddi D	7.7	90'	–	–	–	80 (75%)	2
7 Matías Fernández-Pardo F	7.0	90'	–	–	2	19 (15%)	1
27 Félix Correia M	7.0	62'	–	–	2	24 (21%)	1
8 Ethan Mbappé M	7.0	45'	–	–	–	32 (27%)	1
6 Nabil Bentaleb M	6.9	45'	–	–	1	33 (26%)	1
21 Benjamin André M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	58 (48%)	2
3 Nathan Ngoy D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	84 (82%)	2
15 Romain Perraud D	6.6	45'	–	–	–	16 (16%)	2
23 Aïssa Mandi D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	92 (88%)	–
17 Ngal'ayel Mukau M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	30 (22%)	–
1 Berke Özer G	6.3	90'	–	–	–	34 (32%)	–
28 Gaëtan Perrin F	6.3	8'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson M	6.3	82'	–	–	–	54 (47%)	2
9 Olivier Giroud F	6.3	45'	–	–	1	3 (1%)	–
24 Calvin Verdonk D	6.3	45'	–	–	–	41 (34%)	1
11 Osame Sahraoui F	6.3	28'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	1

Auxerre

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Lassine Sinayoko M	8.3	90'	2	–	3	21 (17%)	1
14 Gideon Mensah D	7.9	90'	–	1	–	30 (18%)	2
27 Lamine Sy D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	19 (14%)	1
20 Sinaly Diomandé D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	18 (14%)	2
16 Donovan Léon G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	34 (7%)	–
9 Sékou Mara F	7.2	82'	–	–	1	11 (8%)	1
29 Marvin Senaya D	6.9	8'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	1
8 Naouirou Ahamada M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	14 (11%)	1
13 Telli Siwe D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	15 (14%)	2
5 Kévin Danois M	6.7	90'	–	–	1	30 (22%)	3
42 Elisha Owusu M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	14 (8%)	1
19 Danny Namaso M	6.5	72'	–	–	–	16 (14%)	1
7 Josué Casimir F	6.3	18'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	–

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Confidence Medium (57%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Lille win or draw

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Lille

LWLWD

Auxerre

WWLLL

Last 3 meetings Lille · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash on May 16, 2026, Lille hosts Auxerre, with both teams having distinct trajectories this season. Lille has shown strong home form, with a 60% win rate at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, while Auxerre struggles on the road, recording only 25% of their points away from home. Lille’s attacking line, featuring a potent goal-scoring average of 2.1 goals per match, will challenge Auxerre’s defense, which has conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game this season. Moreover, Lille's midfield control could dominate possession, limiting Auxerre's chances. Overall, Lille is favored to secure three points in this match-up.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Auxerre goals →

	0	1	2
0	17	7	1
1	23	9	2
2	16	7	1
3	8	3	1
4	3	1
5	1

↑ Lille goals · most likely 1–0 (23.2%)

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Players in form

Lille

Tiago Santos 2 gls

Auxerre

C. Archer 3 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Lille vs Auxerre

2 Lille Wins

1 Draws

0 Auxerre Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Dec 2025	Auxerre	3 - 4	Lille
20 Apr 2025	Lille	3 - 1	Auxerre
10 Jan 2025	Auxerre	0 - 0	Lille

See all 9 meetings — Premium

Lille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Nice	L	2 - 1
13 Sep	H Estac Troyes	W	2 - 0
08 Sep	H Real Betis	L	2 - 3
03 Sep	A Toulouse	W	0 - 1
28 Aug	H Paris Saint Germain	D	2 - 2

Auxerre — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Stade Brestois 29	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	H Nice	W	1 - 0
04 Sep	A Lyon	L	3 - 1
29 Aug	H Angers	L	1 - 3
22 Aug	A Lens	L	5 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2