Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens Prediction

Ligue 1 Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31
FT
Post on X
Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
AI call Difficult Lens win or draw
24%
24%
52%
Home Win Draw Away Win

Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens prediction: Sportiko gives Stade Brestois 29 a 24% chance of winning, Lens 52% and the draw 24%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Stade Brestois 29 produced a stunning first-half display to lead 3–0 at the break, with Daouda Guindo opening the scoring in the seventh minute, Lucas Tousart doubling the advantage on 24 minutes, and Junior Dina Ebimbe — despite picking up an early yellow card — adding a third just before half-time. The scoreline was a remarkable outcome given that Lens dominated possession at 64% and generated an expected goals figure of 2.76 against Brest's 0.25, underlining just how clinical the hosts were in the opening 45 minutes.

Lens mounted a remarkable second-half comeback, with Florian Thauvin pulling one back on 60 minutes before Abdallah Sima reduced the deficit further just four minutes later. Allan Saint-Maximin completed the stunning turnaround in stoppage time to earn Lens a share of the points, a result that our pre-match AI model — which rated a Lens win as the most likely outcome at 52% — could reflect on with some satisfaction given the visitors' ultimate resilience.

A flurry of yellow cards in the closing moments, shown to Saint-Maximin, Kenny Lala, and Grégoire Coudert, added a fractious end to a remarkable contest that will be remembered for one of the more dramatic second-half recoveries of the Ligue 1 season.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Junior Dina Ebimbe Yellow Card
0'
Daouda Guindo assist: Joris Chotard
7' 1–0
Lucas Tousart assist: Daouda Guindo
24' 2–0
Junior Dina Ebimbe assist: Ludovic Ajorque
42' 3–0
HT 3–0
52'
Ruben Aguilar ⇄ Saud Abdulhamid
52'
Florian Sotoca ⇄ Florian Thauvin
53'
Wesley Saïd ⇄ Allan Saint-Maximin
53'
Arthur Masuaku ⇄ Samson Baidoo
55'
Adrien Thomasson Yellow Card
3–1 60'
Florian Thauvin
3–2 64'
Abdallah Sima assist: Saud Abdulhamid
64'
Abdallah Sima ⇄ Odsonne Édouard
Junior Dina Ebimbe ⇄ Mama Baldé
67'
Lucas Tousart ⇄ Michel Diaz
80'
85'
Mamadou Sangare Yellow Card
Daouda Guindo ⇄ Luc Zogbé
88'
Romain Del Castillo ⇄ Pathé Mboup
89'
3–3 90'
Allan Saint-Maximin assist: Mamadou Sangare
Grégoire Coudert Yellow Card
90+4'
Kenny Lala Yellow Card
90+4'
90+4'
Allan Saint-Maximin Yellow Card
FT 3–3
Stade Brestois 29

Match Stats

Lens
36% Ball Possession 64%
0.25 Expected Goals (xG) 2.76
6 Total Shots 25
3 Shots on Goal 7
1 Shots off Goal 13
2 Blocked Shots 5
4 Shots insidebox 17
2 Shots outsidebox 8
0 Corner Kicks 6
1 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
Red Cards
4 Goalkeeper Saves 0
338 Total passes 594
252 Passes accurate 513
75% Passes % 86%
-1.52 goals_prevented -1.52
Stade Brestois 29
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
27 Daouda Guindo D 8.3 88' 1 1 1 29 (25%)
19 Ludovic Ajorque F 7.2 90' 1 1 36 (25%) 5
24 Lucas Tousart M 7.2 80' 1 1 21 (12%) 1
13 Joris Chotard M 7.0 90' 1 36 (32%) 1
7 Junior Dina Ebimbe M 7.0 67' 1 1 17 (13%)
99 Pathé Mboup F 7.0 8' 2 (2%) 1
17 Mama Baldé F 7.0 23' 7 (6%) 1
5 Brendan Chardonnet D 6.9 90' 26 (22%) 2
10 Romain Del Castillo M 6.7 89' 35 (27%) 1
30 Grégoire Coudert G 6.3 90' 44 (25%)
4 Michel Diaz D 6.3 10' 2 (1%)
8 Hugo Magnetti M 6.3 90' 35 (26%)
12 Luc Zogbé D 6.2 9'
44 Soumaila Coulibaly D 6.0 90' 22 (18%)
77 Kenny Lala D 5.9 90' 26 (18%)
Lens
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
9 Allan Saint-Maximin F 8.7 37' 1 2 21 (19%)
23 Saud Abdulhamid D 7.7 38' 1 1 26 (23%) 2
10 Florian Thauvin F 7.7 38' 1 1 25 (20%)
8 Mamadou Sangare M 7.2 90' 1 3 99 (84%) 3
2 Ruben Aguilar M 7.2 52' 47 (44%) 1
14 Matthieu Udol M 7.0 90' 39 (36%) 2
6 Samson Baidoo D 6.9 37' 16 (13%) 2
20 Malang Sarr D 6.6 90' 55 (48%)
28 Adrien Thomasson M 6.6 90' 3 52 (41%) 4
19 Abdallah Sima F 6.6 64' 1 6 10 (9%)
22 Wesley Saïd F 6.5 53' 23 (20%)
7 Florian Sotoca F 6.3 52' 31 (25%)
11 Odsonne Édouard F 6.2 26' 3 4 (4%)
25 Ismaelo Ganiou D 6.0 90' 1 84 (76%) 2
40 Robin Risser G 5.9 90' 17 (17%)
27 Arthur Masuaku D 5.3 53' 45 (34%) 1
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Confidence Medium (59%)

At a glance

Our lean
Difficult Lens win or draw
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Stade Brestois 29
LLWDD
Lens
LDWLL
Last 3 meetings Stade Brestois 29 · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 match on April 26, 2026, Stade Brestois 29 will host Lens at Stade Francis-Le Blé. Brestois, typically a mid-table side, has shown resilience at home, boasting a solid defensive record with an average of 1.3 goals conceded per game this season. Conversely, Lens has been a formidable opponent away from home, averaging 2 goals per match and relying on their high pressing and quick transitions. Key players to watch include Brest's leading scorer, whose finishing has been critical, and Lens' dynamic winger, known for creating goal-scoring opportunities. This matchup could hinge on Brest's ability to neutralize Lens' attacking threats while capitalizing on set pieces. Expect a tightly contested encounter with potential playoff implications for both sides.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

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Players in form

Stade Brestois 29
K. Doumbia 4 gls
Lens
F. Thauvin 3 gls
F. Ivanović 2 gls

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Head to Head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens

0 Stade Brestois 29 Wins
0 Draws
3 Lens Wins
Date Home Score Away
29 Aug 2025 Lens 3 - 1 Stade Brestois 29
20 Apr 2025 Stade Brestois 29 1 - 3 Lens
25 Aug 2024 Lens 2 - 0 Stade Brestois 29
See all 10 meetings — Premium

Stade Brestois 29 — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
20 Sep A Auxerre L 2 - 1
13 Sep H Paris Saint Germain L 0 - 1
05 Sep A Le Havre W 1 - 2
29 Aug H Toulouse D 2 - 2
22 Aug A Le Mans D 2 - 2

Lens — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
18 Sep A Monaco L 2 - 1
13 Sep A Le Mans D 2 - 2
10 Sep A Slavia Praha W 2 - 3
05 Sep H Lorient L 0 - 1
29 Aug A Strasbourg L 2 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Monaco
5 4 1 0 +5 13
2
Lyon
5 3 2 0 +8 11
3
Paris FC
5 3 2 0 +5 11
4
Lille
5 3 1 1 +4 10
5
Rennes
5 3 1 1 -1 10
6
Paris Saint Germain
5 2 2 1 +1 8
7
Angers
5 2 1 2 +1 7
8
Strasbourg
5 2 1 2 0 7
9
Le Mans
5 1 3 1 0 6
10
Auxerre
5 2 0 3 -5 6
11
Stade Brestois 29
5 1 2 2 -1 5
12
Lorient
5 1 2 2 -1 5
13
Toulouse
5 1 2 2 -2 5
14
Nice
5 1 2 2 -3 5
15
Lens
5 1 1 3 0 4
16
Estac Troyes
5 1 1 3 -7 4
17
Marseille
5 1 0 4 -1 3
18
Le Havre
5 0 2 3 -3 2

Stade Brestois 29

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Eric Roy
30 Coudert
27 Guindo
44 Coulibaly
5 Chardonnet
77 Lala
13 Chotard
7 Ebimbe
8 Magnetti
24 Tousart
10 Castillo
19 Ajorque

Starting XI

# Player Pos
30 G. Coudert G
77 K. Lala D
5 B. Chardonnet D
44 S. Coulibaly D
27 D. Guindo D
13 J. Chotard M
10 R. Del Castillo M
24 L. Tousart M
8 H. Magnetti M
7 J. Dina Ebimbe M
19 L. Ajorque F

Substitutes

50 N. Jauny G
1 R. Majecki G
17 M. Balde F
4 J. M. Diaz D
33 H. Makalou M
99 P. Mboup F
12 L. Zogbe D
21 I. Y. Kante F
39 A. Lassus M

Lens

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: P. Sage
40 Risser
27 Masuaku
20 Sarr
25 Ganiou
14 Udol
28 Thomasson
8 Sangare
2 Aguilar
22 Said
7 Sotoca
19 Sima

Starting XI

# Player Pos
40 R. Risser G
25 I. Ganiou D
20 M. Sarr D
27 A. Masuaku D
2 R. Aguilar M
8 M. Sangare M
28 A. Thomasson M
14 M. Udol M
7 F. Sotoca F
22 W. Said F
19 A. Sima F

Substitutes

16 M. Gorgelin G
23 S. Abdulhamid D
10 F. Thauvin F
9 A. Saint-Maximin F
11 O. Edouard F
21 A. Haidara M
6 S. Baidoo D
5 A. Bulatovic M
38 R. Fofana F

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