Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction
Toulouse vs Monaco prediction: Sportiko gives Toulouse a 21% chance of winning, Monaco 56% and the draw 22%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Monaco looked well in control in the opening stages, with Jordan Teze breaking the deadlock in the sixth minute before Lamine Camara doubled the advantage on 18 minutes. The visitors dominated possession and created the clearer chances throughout the first half, reflected in their expected goals figure of 1.75 compared to Toulouse's 0.74, and the scoreline at the break accurately reflected Monaco's superiority.
Toulouse mounted a spirited second-half comeback, with Jacen Russell-Rowe pulling one back on 61 minutes to give the hosts a foothold in the contest. The closing stages were frantic, with four yellow cards shown between the 62nd and 75th minutes as both sides grew increasingly physical. Emersonn then completed the turnaround in stoppage time, heading in an equaliser at the death to deny Monaco what had seemed a comfortable victory.
Our pre-match AI model rated a Monaco win as the most likely outcome at 56%, and while the result ultimately eluded them, the underlying numbers supported that assessment throughout. Monaco's 18 total shots to Toulouse's eight told the story of a match the visitors should have seen out.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Toulouse
Match Stats
Toulouse
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aron Dønnum M | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 55 (44%) | 7 |
| 20 Emersonn F | 7.5 | 16' | 1 | – | 2 | 4 (4%) | – |
| 23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 92 (83%) | 1 |
| 3 Mark McKenzie D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 53 (48%) | 3 |
| 18 Pape Diop F | 6.9 | 89' | – | – | – | 47 (40%) | 2 |
| 13 Jacen Russell-Rowe F | 6.9 | 74' | 1 | – | 3 | 14 (13%) | – |
| 4 Charlie Cresswell D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 67 (64%) | – |
| 24 Dayann Methalie M | 6.6 | 89' | – | 1 | – | 29 (24%) | 1 |
| 77 Mario Sauer M | 6.6 | 11' | – | – | – | 7 (4%) | – |
| 37 Ilyas Azizi F | 6.6 | 11' | – | – | – | 6 (6%) | 1 |
| 2 Rasmus Nicolaisen D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 70 (60%) | 2 |
| 45 Alexis Vossah M | 6.3 | 79' | – | – | – | 29 (25%) | 2 |
| 11 Santiago Hidalgo F | 6.3 | 79' | – | – | – | 12 (8%) | 1 |
| 1 Guillaume Restes G | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (19%) | – |
| 12 Warren Kamanzi D | — | 1' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 7 Julian Vignolo F | — | 1' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
Monaco
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jordan Teze M | 8.3 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 54 (45%) | 3 |
| 1 Lukáš Hrádecký G | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (23%) | – |
| 11 Maghnes Akliouche F | 7.2 | 75' | – | 1 | 1 | 40 (36%) | 1 |
| 15 Lamine Camara M | 7.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 60 (52%) | 3 |
| 6 Denis Zakaria M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 40 (36%) | 4 |
| 5 Thilo Kehrer D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 79 (66%) | 3 |
| 25 Wout Faes D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 48 (44%) | 3 |
| 13 Christian Mawissa D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 51 (45%) | 6 |
| 24 Simon Adingra M | 6.5 | 84' | – | 1 | 2 | 31 (23%) | – |
| 8 Paul Pogba M | 6.5 | 11' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 3 Eric Dier D | 6.5 | 15' | – | – | – | 9 (9%) | – |
| 9 Folarin Balogun F | 6.3 | 84' | – | – | – | 11 (9%) | – |
| 10 Aleksandr Golovin M | 6.3 | 29' | – | – | – | 7 (4%) | – |
| 14 Mika Biereth F | 6.3 | 11' | – | – | – | 5 (3%) | – |
| 31 Ansu Fati F | 6.2 | 61' | – | – | 1 | 28 (21%) | – |
Unlock the AI's full read on Toulouse vs Monaco
- All 70+ probability markets
- AI Deep-Dive match report
- Value Edge — model vs market
- Pick types you choose
At a glance
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowMatch summary
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowMost likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowPlayers in form
C. Tengstedt
3 gls
T. Jørgensen
2 gls
Paris Josua Brunner
4 gls
You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.
Unlock all modelsUnlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowHead to Head: Toulouse vs Monaco
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2025 | Monaco | 1 - 0 | Toulouse |
| 07 Mar 2025 | Toulouse | 1 - 1 | Monaco |
| 07 Dec 2024 | Monaco | 2 - 0 | Toulouse |
Toulouse — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Le Havre | W | 3 - 2 |
| 12 Sep | A Lorient | D | 2 - 2 |
| 03 Sep | H Lille | L | 0 - 1 |
| 29 Aug | A Stade Brestois 29 | D | 2 - 2 |
| 22 Aug | H Lyon | L | 0 - 2 |
Monaco — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | H Lens | W | 2 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | A Strasbourg | D | 1 - 1 |
| 04 Sep | A Paris Saint Germain | W | 1 - 2 |
| 30 Aug | H Marseille | W | 2 - 0 |
| 27 Aug | H Gornik Zabrze | W | 4 - 1 |
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Monaco
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 |
Lyon
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 |
Paris FC
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 |
Lille
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 |
Rennes
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 7 |
Angers
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |
Strasbourg
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |
Le Mans
|
5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 |
Auxerre
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 |
Stade Brestois 29
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |
Lorient
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 |
Toulouse
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 |
Nice
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |
Lens
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |
Estac Troyes
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 |
Marseille
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 |
Le Havre
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
Monaco
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Sebastien Pocognoli
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Hradecky | G |
| 5 | T. Kehrer | D |
| 25 | W. Faes | D |
| 13 | C. Mawissa | D |
| 4 | J. Teze | M |
| 15 | L. Camara | M |
| 6 | D. Zakaria | M |
| 24 | S. Adingra | M |
| 11 | M. Akliouche | F |
| 31 | A. Fati | F |
| 9 | F. Balogun | F |
Substitutes
| 16 | P. Kohn | G |
| 8 | P. Pogba | M |
| 3 | E. Dier | D |
| 14 | M. Biereth | F |
| 44 | S. Nibombe | M |
| 23 | A. Bamba | M |
| 10 | A. Golovin | M |
| 28 | M. Coulibaly | M |
| 49 | I. Toure | M |
Toulouse
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Carles Martínez
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | G. Restes | G |
| 3 | M. McKenzie | D |
| 4 | C. Cresswell | D |
| 2 | R. Nicolaisen | D |
| 15 | A. Donnum | M |
| 45 | A. Vossah | M |
| 23 | C. Casseres | M |
| 24 | D. Methalie | M |
| 11 | S. Hidalgo | F |
| 18 | P. Demba | F |
| 13 | J. Russell-Rowe | F |
Substitutes
| 16 | K. Haug | G |
| 40 | N. Said Mchindra | G |
| 12 | W. Kamanzi | D |
| 77 | M. Sauer | M |
| 37 | I. Azizi | F |
| 19 | D. Sidibe | D |
| 20 | Emersonn | F |
| 35 | S. Koumbassa | D |
| 7 | J. Vignolo | F |