Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse Prediction
Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse prediction: Sportiko gives Paris Saint Germain a 73% chance of winning, Toulouse 11% and the draw 16%. Last updated 25 Jul 2026, 05:45.
Match Report
Paris Saint-Germain dominated Toulouse in Ligue 1 Matchday 28, running out comfortable 3–1 winners at home. Ousmane Dembélé was the standout performer, opening the scoring in the 23rd minute before adding a second just ten minutes later. An unnamed Toulouse goal in between briefly levelled matters, but PSG's superiority was never seriously in doubt as they headed into the break leading 2–1.
The second half saw Luis Enrique rotate his squad through a series of substitutions, with Kang-in Lee among those introduced. The game was put to bed in the final stages, with Gonçalo Ramos adding a third in the 90th minute to seal the result. A yellow card in the 36th minute was the only moment of real controversy across the ninety minutes.
The statistics underlined PSG's total control — 72% possession, 17 shots to Toulouse's five, and an expected goals figure of 1.95 against just 0.16 for the visitors. Our pre-match AI model had rated a PSG win as the most likely outcome at 73%, a call that proved well-founded.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Paris Saint Germain
Match Stats
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Ousmane Dembélé F | 8.7 | 90' | 2 | – | 3 | 53 (47%) | – |
| 7 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia F | 8.0 | 68' | – | 1 | 5 | 46 (40%) | 5 |
| 19 Kang-in Lee F | 7.3 | 59' | – | – | – | 39 (34%) | 1 |
| 33 Warren Zaïre-Emery M | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 75 (72%) | 3 |
| 17 Vitinha M | 7.3 | 23' | – | – | – | 40 (36%) | 1 |
| 9 Gonçalo Ramos F | 7.2 | 7' | 1 | – | 1 | 2 (2%) | – |
| 87 João Neves M | 7.0 | 31' | – | – | – | 22 (22%) | – |
| 6 Ilya Zabarnyi D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 101 (93%) | 2 |
| 4 Lucas Beraldo M | 7.0 | 67' | – | – | – | 50 (43%) | 4 |
| 51 Willian Pacho D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 104 (100%) | 1 |
| 14 Désiré Doué M | 6.9 | 87' | – | – | 1 | 72 (60%) | 2 |
| 25 Nuno Mendes D | 6.9 | 22' | – | 1 | – | 15 (13%) | – |
| 2 Achraf Hakimi D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 75 (69%) | – |
| 21 Lucas Hernández D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 92 (83%) | – |
| 39 Matvey Safonov G | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (23%) | – |
Toulouse
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Rasmus Nicolaisen D | 7.3 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 35 (30%) | 1 |
| 19 Djibril Sidibé M | 6.7 | 83' | – | 1 | – | 27 (19%) | 1 |
| 1 Guillaume Restes G | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 23 (9%) | – |
| 23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. M | 6.3 | 83' | – | – | – | 40 (33%) | – |
| 18 Pape Diop M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 41 (37%) | 1 |
| 24 Dayann Methalie M | 6.3 | 67' | – | – | – | 12 (9%) | 1 |
| 15 Aron Dønnum F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 27 (22%) | – |
| 20 Emersonn F | 6.3 | 83' | – | – | 1 | 18 (14%) | 2 |
| 12 Warren Kamanzi D | 6.3 | 23' | – | – | – | 8 (5%) | 1 |
| 77 Mario Sauer M | 6.3 | 11' | – | – | – | 9 (7%) | – |
| 37 Ilyas Azizi F | 6.3 | 11' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 13 Jacen Russell-Rowe F | 6.3 | 11' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 3 Mark McKenzie D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (25%) | 1 |
| 10 Yann Gboho F | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 20 (16%) | 1 |
| 35 Seny Koumbassa D | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 20 (17%) | 1 |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Ferran Torres
4 gls
Marquinhos
3 gls
C. Tengstedt
3 gls
T. Jørgensen
2 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2025 | Toulouse | 3 - 6 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Toulouse | 0 - 1 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 22 Nov 2024 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 - 0 | Toulouse |
Paris Saint Germain — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Marseille | W | 1 - 2 |
| 13 Sep | A Stade Brestois 29 | W | 0 - 1 |
| 09 Sep | H Slovan Bratislava | W | 6 - 1 |
| 04 Sep | H Monaco | L | 1 - 2 |
| 28 Aug | A Lille | D | 2 - 2 |
Toulouse — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Le Havre | W | 3 - 2 |
| 12 Sep | A Lorient | D | 2 - 2 |
| 03 Sep | H Lille | L | 0 - 1 |
| 29 Aug | A Stade Brestois 29 | D | 2 - 2 |
| 22 Aug | H Lyon | L | 0 - 2 |
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Monaco
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 |
Lyon
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 |
Paris FC
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 |
Lille
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 |
Rennes
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 7 |
Angers
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |
Strasbourg
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |
Le Mans
|
5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 |
Auxerre
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 |
Stade Brestois 29
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |
Lorient
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 |
Toulouse
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 |
Nice
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |
Lens
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |
Estac Troyes
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 |
Marseille
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 |
Le Havre
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
Paris Saint Germain
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Luis Enrique
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | M. Safonov | G |
| 2 | A. Hakimi | D |
| 6 | I. Zabarnyi | D |
| 51 | W. Pacho | D |
| 21 | L. Hernandez | D |
| 33 | W. Zaire-Emery | M |
| 4 | L. Beraldo | M |
| 14 | D. Doue | M |
| 19 | Lee Kang-In | F |
| 10 | O. Dembele | F |
| 7 | K. Kvaratskhelia | F |
Substitutes
| 30 | L. Chevalier | G |
| 89 | R. Marin | G |
| 5 | Marquinhos | D |
| 17 | Vitinha | M |
| 9 | G. Ramos | F |
| 25 | N. Mendes | D |
| 87 | J. Neves | M |
| 27 | D. Fernandez | M |
| 49 | I. Mbaye | F |
Toulouse
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Carles Martínez
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | G. Restes | G |
| 3 | M. McKenzie | D |
| 35 | S. Koumbassa | D |
| 2 | R. Nicolaisen | D |
| 19 | D. Sidibe | M |
| 23 | C. Casseres | M |
| 18 | P. Demba | M |
| 24 | D. Methalie | M |
| 15 | A. Donnum | F |
| 10 | Y. Gboho | F |
| 20 | Emersonn | F |
Substitutes
| 16 | K. Haug | G |
| 40 | N. Said Mchindra | G |
| 12 | W. Kamanzi | D |
| 77 | M. Sauer | M |
| 44 | G. Bakhouche Piernas | D |
| 37 | I. Azizi | F |
| 13 | J. Russell-Rowe | F |
| 7 | J. Vignolo | F |
| 45 | A. Vossah | M |