Napoli vs Udinese Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 38

Post on X

Udinese

Away

AI call Napoli to win

63%

21%

16%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Napoli vs Udinese prediction: Sportiko gives Napoli a 63% chance of winning, Udinese 16% and the draw 21%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Napoli secured a narrow but comfortable 1–0 victory over Udinese on the final day of the Serie A regular season, with Rasmus Højlund's 24th-minute strike proving the decisive moment. The goal came against the run of early play, shortly after Udinese had been forced into a substitution, and gave Napoli a lead they would not relinquish heading into the break.

The second half saw Udinese's task grow considerably harder when Christian Kabasele was shown a red card on 64 minutes following a VAR review, reducing the visitors to ten men. Despite making a series of changes on both sides, Udinese could not find a way through a disciplined Napoli backline, and their expected goals figure of just 0.37 reflected how little they genuinely threatened.

Napoli dominated possession at 67% and registered 14 total shots to Udinese's ten, with their 1.76 xG underscoring a controlled if not emphatic performance. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Napoli win as the most likely outcome at 63%, a call that proved correct as the hosts closed out the season with three points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Alisson Santos ⇄ Kevin De Bruyne

10' ⇄

Rasmus Højlund assist: Kevin De Bruyne

24' ⚽ 1–0

Stanislav Lobotka ⇄ Billy Gilmour

37' ⇄

HT 1–0

Mathías Olivera ⇄ Juan Jesus

46' ⇄

▮ 51'

Jesper Karlström Yellow Card

⇄ 54'

Jakub Piotrowski ⇄ Idrissa Gueye

⇄ 59'

Jesper Karlström ⇄ Adam Buksa

⇄ 59'

Thomas Kristensen ⇄ Nicolò Bertola

▮ 64'

Christian Kabasele Red Card

🖵 64'

Christian Kabasele Card upgrade

Alex Meret ⇄ Nikita Contini

80' ⇄

Matteo Politano ⇄ Pasquale Mazzocchi

80' ⇄

⇄ 80'

Jordan Zemura ⇄ Branimir Mlačić

⇄ 80'

Keinan Davis ⇄ Oier Zarraga

▮ 81'

Adam Buksa Yellow Card

▮ 90'

Lennon Miller Yellow Card

FT 1–0

Napoli

Match Stats

Udinese

67% Ball Possession 33%

1.76 Expected Goals (xG) 0.37

14 Total Shots 10

6 Shots on Goal 3

5 Shots off Goal 1

3 Blocked Shots 6

7 Shots insidebox 7

7 Shots outsidebox 3

3 Corner Kicks 3

4 Offsides 0

3 Fouls 13

0 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 1

2 Goalkeeper Saves 5

700 Total passes 332

647 Passes accurate 267

92% Passes % 80%

0.68 goals_prevented 0.68

Napoli

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Rasmus Højlund F	8.3	90'	1	–	2	9 (9%)	–
5 Juan Jesus D	8.2	45'	–	–	–	40 (37%)	3
1 Alex Meret G	7.5	80'	–	–	–	31 (30%)	–
13 Amir Rrahmani D	7.5	90'	–	–	1	92 (84%)	–
8 Scott McTominay M	7.3	90'	–	–	2	67 (64%)	–
17 Mathías Olivera D	7.2	45'	–	–	–	46 (45%)	–
6 Billy Gilmour M	7.2	53'	–	–	–	79 (74%)	2
22 Giovanni Di Lorenzo D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	77 (72%)	1
21 Matteo Politano M	7.0	80'	–	–	2	37 (29%)	–
11 Kevin De Bruyne M	6.9	80'	–	1	1	70 (60%)	2
3 Miguel Gutiérrez M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	58 (54%)	–
68 Stanislav Lobotka M	6.9	37'	–	–	–	37 (36%)	–
27 Alisson Santos F	6.9	10'	–	–	1	4 (3%)	–
20 Eljif Elmas F	6.9	90'	–	–	1	43 (41%)	–
14 Nikita Contini G	6.7	10'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
30 Pasquale Mazzocchi D	6.6	10'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	–

Udinese

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
40 Maduka Okoye G	7.9	90'	–	–	–	30 (19%)	–
38 Lennon Miller M	7.0	90'	–	–	–	33 (26%)	2
13 Nicolò Bertola D	7.0	31'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	3
8 Jesper Karlström M	6.7	59'	–	–	1	25 (22%)	2
14 Arthur Atta F	6.7	90'	–	–	1	37 (30%)	2
6 Oier Zarraga M	6.7	10'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
33 Jordan Zemura M	6.7	80'	–	–	–	25 (23%)	2
28 Oumar Solet D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	59 (55%)	2
19 Kingsley Ehizibue M	6.6	90'	–	–	1	23 (16%)	–
22 Branimir Mlačić D	6.6	10'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
24 Jakub Piotrowski F	6.3	54'	–	–	–	13 (9%)	–
7 Idrissa Gueye F	6.3	36'	–	–	1	3 (2%)	–
18 Adam Buksa F	6.3	31'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	–
31 Thomas Kristensen D	6.2	59'	–	–	–	31 (23%)	–
9 Keinan Davis F	6.0	80'	–	–	–	18 (12%)	–
27 Christian Kabasele D	5.9	64'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	1

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Confidence Medium (62%)

At a glance

Our lean

Napoli to win

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Napoli

WWWWL

Udinese

LDLLL

Last 3 meetings Napoli · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash, Napoli hosts Udinese on May 24, 2026. Napoli has been strong at home, boasting a high win rate, particularly benefiting from their dynamic attacking play led by key forwards. As of the latest data, they rank among the top teams in goals scored per match, showcasing a potent offense.

Conversely, Udinese has struggled against top-tier teams and tends to concede more goals away from home. Their defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by Napoli's pace and creativity. Given the current form and historical head-to-head results favoring Napoli, they will likely enter this match as favorites. Expect Napoli to leverage home advantage to secure crucial points in their title pursuit.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Udinese goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	5	5	2	1
1	11	10	4	1
2	11	10	5	1
3	8	7	3	1
4	4	4	2	1
5	2	2	1

↑ Napoli goals · most likely 2–0 (11.0%)

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Head to Head: Napoli vs Udinese

1 Napoli Wins

1 Draws

1 Udinese Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Dec 2025	Udinese	1 - 0	Napoli
09 Feb 2025	Napoli	1 - 1	Udinese
14 Dec 2024	Udinese	1 - 3	Napoli

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Napoli — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Aug	H Osasuna	W	2 - 1
26 Jul	H Carrarese	W	2 - 0
24 May	H Udinese	W	1 - 0
17 May	A Pisa	W	0 - 3
11 May	H Bologna	L	2 - 3

Udinese — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	A Trabzonspor	L	1 - 0
01 Aug	H FSV Mainz 05	D	3 - 3
28 Jul	H Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	L	0 - 2
24 May	A Napoli	L	1 - 0
17 May	H Cremonese	L	0 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0