AC Milan vs Cagliari Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 38

Post on X

Cagliari

Away

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AI call AC Milan to win

77%

18%

Home Win Draw Away Win

AC Milan vs Cagliari prediction: Sportiko gives AC Milan a 77% chance of winning, Cagliari 5% and the draw 18%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

AC Milan made the perfect start when Alexis Saelemaekers struck inside two minutes, though Cagliari's Zé Pedro had already picked up a yellow card in that same frantic opening. The visitors levelled through Gennaro Borrelli on 20 minutes, and the sides went into the break level at 1–1.

The decisive moment came just after the hour mark when Juan Rodríguez put Cagliari ahead on 57 minutes, a lead they would not relinquish. Milan responded with a flurry of substitutions, introducing Tomori, Nkunku, and Fofana in quick succession, but could not find an equaliser. The stats told a damning story for the hosts: Cagliari outshot Milan 25 to 16 overall and registered 10 shots on target compared to just three, with an expected goals figure of 2.78 against Milan's 1.74.

The result was a notable upset — our pre-match AI model had rated an AC Milan win as the most likely outcome at 77%. Cagliari's controlled, efficient performance proved otherwise, securing all three points in a result that will raise eyebrows across Serie A.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 2'

Zé Pedro Yellow Card

Alexis Saelemaekers assist: Santiago Giménez

2' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 20'

Gennaro Borrelli

HT 1–1

Santiago Giménez ⇄ Christian Pulišić

46' ⇄

Strahinja Pavlović Yellow Card

56' ▮

⚽ 1–2 57'

Juan Rodríguez

Mike Maignan Yellow Card

58' ▮

Fikayo Tomori ⇄ Zachary Athekame

61' ⇄

Christopher Nkunku ⇄ Niclas Füllkrug

61' ⇄

Ardon Jashari ⇄ Luka Modrić

62' ⇄

⇄ 62'

Juan Rodríguez ⇄ Alberto Dossena

⇄ 63'

Zé Pedro ⇄ Marco Palestra

Youssouf Fofana ⇄ Rafael Leão

68' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Alessandro Deiola ⇄ Ibrahim Sulemana

⇄ 74'

Gennaro Borrelli ⇄ Paul Mendy

⇄ 90+5'

Sebastiano Esposito

▮ 90+6'

Ibrahim Sulemana Yellow Card

FT 1–2

AC Milan

Match Stats

Cagliari

48% Ball Possession 52%

1.74 Expected Goals (xG) 2.78

16 Total Shots 25

3 Shots on Goal 10

11 Shots off Goal 8

2 Blocked Shots 7

13 Shots insidebox 16

3 Shots outsidebox 9

5 Corner Kicks 5

3 Offsides 0

8 Fouls 9

2 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

9 Goalkeeper Saves 2

455 Total passes 487

395 Passes accurate 430

87% Passes % 88%

0.14 goals_prevented 0.14

AC Milan

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Mike Maignan G	9.7	90'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	–
56 Alexis Saelemaekers M	7.9	90'	1	–	1	37 (26%)	3
12 Adrien Rabiot M	7.7	90'	–	–	4	48 (44%)	1
46 Matteo Gabbia D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	58 (53%)	1
14 Luka Modrić M	7.3	28'	–	–	1	22 (16%)	2
33 Davide Bartesaghi M	7.3	90'	–	–	–	39 (35%)	2
10 Rafael Leão F	7.2	22'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–
24 Zachary Athekame D	7.2	29'	–	–	–	16 (14%)	2
11 Christian Pulišić M	6.7	45'	–	–	3	18 (15%)	1
30 Ardon Jashari M	6.6	62'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	–
18 Christopher Nkunku F	6.6	61'	–	–	1	15 (12%)	–
7 Santiago Giménez F	6.3	45'	–	1	2	4 (4%)	1
23 Fikayo Tomori D	6.3	61'	–	–	–	44 (41%)	–
31 Strahinja Pavlović D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	64 (59%)	1
9 Niclas Füllkrug F	6.3	29'	–	–	–	11 (8%)	–
19 Youssouf Fofana M	6.0	68'	–	–	1	18 (14%)	1

Cagliari

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
29 Gennaro Borrelli F	8.3	74'	1	–	4	12 (8%)	–
94 Sebastiano Esposito F	7.7	89'	–	–	2	49 (41%)	4
2 Marco Palestra D	7.3	27'	–	–	1	10 (8%)	–
10 Gianluca Gaetano M	7.2	90'	–	–	4	76 (73%)	1
15 Juan Rodríguez D	7.0	62'	1	–	1	51 (47%)	1
1 Elia Caprile G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	29 (20%)	–
33 Adam Obert M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	25 (21%)	3
31 Paul Mendy F	6.9	16'	–	–	1	7 (6%)	–
22 Alberto Dossena D	6.9	28'	–	–	–	13 (11%)	1
26 Yerry Mina D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	57 (55%)	1
32 Zé Pedro D	6.7	63'	–	–	2	57 (53%)	–
8 Michel Adopo M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	2
28 Gabriele Zappa M	6.5	90'	–	–	1	37 (33%)	–
14 Alessandro Deiola M	6.3	74'	–	–	2	30 (24%)	–
25 Ibrahim Sulemana M	6.2	16'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	1
17 Mattia Felici F	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Medium (56%)

At a glance

Our lean

AC Milan to win

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AC Milan

DLWLL

Cagliari

DWDWW

Last 3 meetings AC Milan · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A match on May 24, 2026, AC Milan hosts Cagliari at San Siro. AC Milan has been performing strongly at home, with a win rate of approximately 75% in their last 10 home fixtures, showcasing a solid attack averaging 2.2 goals per game. Cagliari, on the other hand, struggles on the road, with only 30% of their matches resulting in points away from home. Defensively, Milan has also been robust, conceding less than 1 goal per game at home this season. This match favors AC Milan, who will look to secure three points to bolster their title hopes.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Cagliari goals →

	0	1	2
0	11	3
1	21	6	1
2	20	6	1
3	13	4	1
4	6	2
5	2	1

↑ AC Milan goals · most likely 1–0 (21.1%)

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Head to Head: AC Milan vs Cagliari

1 AC Milan Wins

2 Draws

0 Cagliari Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
02 Jan 2026	Cagliari	0 - 1	AC Milan
11 Jan 2025	AC Milan	1 - 1	Cagliari
09 Nov 2024	Cagliari	3 - 3	AC Milan

See all 10 meetings — Premium

AC Milan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jul	A Celtic	D	2 - 2
24 May	H Cagliari	L	1 - 2
17 May	A Genoa	W	1 - 2
10 May	H Atalanta	L	2 - 3
03 May	A Sassuolo	L	2 - 0

Cagliari — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	A Union Berlin	D	2 - 2
28 Jul	H Modena	W	1 - 0
23 Jul	A Sampdoria	D	0 - 0
24 May	A AC Milan	W	1 - 2
17 May	H Torino	W	2 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

AC Milan

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Massimiliano Allegri

16 Maignan

31 Pavlovic

46 Gabbia

23 Tomori

33 Bartesaghi

12 Rabiot

30 Jashari

19 Fofana

56 Saelemaekers

18 Nkunku

7 Gimenez

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	M. Maignan	G
23	F. Tomori	D
46	M. Gabbia	D
31	S. Pavlovic	D
56	A. Saelemaekers	M
19	Y. Fofana	M
30	A. Jashari	M
12	A. Rabiot	M
33	D. Bartesaghi	M
7	S. Gimenez	F
18	C. Nkunku	F

Substitutes

37	M. Pittarella	G
96	L. Torriani	G
14	L. Modric	M
8	R. Loftus-Cheek	M
2	P. Estupinan	D
4	S. Ricci	M
24	Z. Athekame	D
34	V. Vladimirov	D
9	N. Fullkrug	F
11	C. Pulisic	M
10	R. Leao	F
5	K. De Winter	D
27	D. Odogu	D
45	J. Sardo	M
25	C. Balentien	F

Cagliari

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Fabio Pisacane

1 Caprile

15 Rodriguez

26 Mina

32 Pedro

33 Obert

14 Deiola

10 Gaetano

8 Adopo

28 Zappa

94 Esposito

29 Borrelli

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	E. Caprile	G
32	J. Pedro	D
26	Y. Mina	D
15	J. Rodriguez	D
28	G. Zappa	M
8	M. Adopo	M
10	G. Gaetano	M
14	A. Deiola	M
33	A. Obert	M
29	G. Borrelli	F
94	S. Esposito	F

Substitutes

24	G. Ciocci	G
12	A. Sherri	G
19	A. Belotti	F
4	L. Mazzitelli	M
22	A. Dossena	D
38	I. Sulev	M
25	I. Sulemana	M
2	M. Palestra	D
36	N. Grandu	F
37	Y. Trepy	F
41	A. Russo	M
31	P. Mendy	F
17	M. Felici	F
18	O. Raterink	D
20	A. Albarracin	F