AS Roma vs Lazio Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 37

Post on X

Lazio

Away

AI call AS Roma or draw

44%

26%

30%

Home Win Draw Away Win

AS Roma vs Lazio prediction: Sportiko gives AS Roma a 44% chance of winning, Lazio 30% and the draw 26%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

AS Roma claimed a commanding 2–0 derby victory over Lazio in Serie A Matchday 37, with Gianluca Mancini proving the decisive figure on a dramatic afternoon. The defender broke the deadlock on 40 minutes to send Roma into half-time with the advantage, having already seen an early flurry of bookings set a feisty tone. An enforced substitution for Ndicka before the break added early tension to the encounter.

Mancini doubled his and Roma's tally on 66 minutes, all but sealing the points, before the match descended into chaos four minutes later. Both Wesley and Nicolò Rovella received red cards on 70 minutes, leaving Lazio severely depleted and any hope of a comeback effectively extinguished. The dismissals capped a miserable afternoon for the visitors, who had also accumulated multiple yellow cards throughout.

Roma managed the closing stages comfortably, rotating their squad with several late substitutions including the introductions of Dybala and Malen. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Roma win as the most likely outcome at 44%, a call that proved correct as the Giallorossi secured a fully deserved derby triumph.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 21'

Kenneth Taylor Yellow Card

Evan Ndicka ⇄ Devyne Rensch

37' ⇄

Gianluca Mancini assist: Niccolò Pisilli

40' ⚽ 1–0

Mario Hermoso Yellow Card

42' ▮

▮ 42'

Matteo Cancellieri Yellow Card

HT 1–0

Niccolò Pisilli ⇄ Stephan El Shaarawy

46' ⇄

⇄ 62'

Kenneth Taylor ⇄ Fisayo Dele-Bashiru

⇄ 62'

Boulaye Dia ⇄ Daniel Maldini

▮ 64'

Nuno Tavares Yellow Card

Gianluca Mancini assist: Paulo Dybala

66' ⚽ 2–0

Wesley Red Card

70' ▮

▮ 70'

Nicolò Rovella Red Card

⇄ 71'

Matteo Cancellieri ⇄ Gustav Isaksen

⇄ 79'

Tijjani Noslin ⇄ Pedro

⇄ 79'

Adam Marušić ⇄ Manuel Lazzari

Gianluca Mancini ⇄ Jan Ziółkowski

83' ⇄

D. Malen ⇄ Matías Soulé

83' ⇄

Stephan El Shaarawy Yellow Card

85' ▮

Paulo Dybala

88' ⇄

FT 2–0

AS Roma

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Gianluca Mancini D	9.5	83'	2	–	2	46 (45%)	1
21 Paulo Dybala F	8.0	88'	–	1	1	30 (25%)	2
8 Neil El Aynaoui M	7.7	90'	–	–	–	53 (49%)	3
18 Matías Soulé F	7.3	13'	–	–	1	5 (5%)	–
4 Bryan Cristante M	7.2	90'	–	–	1	53 (43%)	3
5 Evan Ndicka D	6.9	37'	–	–	–	29 (26%)	–
99 Mile Svilar G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	25 (13%)	–
61 Niccolò Pisilli F	6.9	45'	–	1	–	15 (13%)	2
22 Mario Hermoso D	6.7	90'	–	–	2	46 (42%)	1
24 Jan Ziółkowski D	6.7	13'	–	–	1	5 (5%)	–
2 Devyne Rensch D	6.6	53'	–	–	–	30 (27%)	1
19 Zeki Çelik M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	46 (38%)	3
14 D. Malen F	6.2	83'	–	–	1	10 (9%)	1
92 Stephan El Shaarawy F	6.2	45'	–	–	2	10 (9%)	–
9 Artem Dovbyk F	6.2	8'	–	–	2	3 (2%)	–
43 Wesley M	5.9	70'	–	–	1	14 (12%)	–

Lazio

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
55 Alessio Furlanetto G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	23 (20%)	–
26 Toma Bašić M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	43 (38%)	1
27 Daniel Maldini F	6.9	28'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–
29 Manuel Lazzari M	6.9	11'	–	–	–	11 (11%)	1
34 Mario Gila Fuentes D	6.7	90'	–	–	1	50 (45%)	2
19 Boulaye Dia F	6.6	62'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	1
25 Oliver Provstgaard D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	59 (55%)	3
7 Fisayo Dele-Bashiru M	6.5	28'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–
6 Nicolò Rovella M	6.5	70'	–	–	–	49 (46%)	–
17 Nuno Tavares D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	53 (41%)	2
9 Pedro F	6.3	11'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	–
22 Matteo Cancellieri F	6.3	71'	–	–	2	15 (12%)	3
24 Kenneth Taylor M	6.2	62'	–	–	–	25 (22%)	–
18 Gustav Isaksen F	6.2	19'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
14 Tijjani Noslin F	6.2	79'	–	–	1	27 (21%)	1
77 Adam Marušić D	5.9	79'	–	–	–	19 (12%)	–

Premium

Unlock the AI's full read on AS Roma vs Lazio

All 70+ probability markets
AI Deep-Dive match report
Value Edge — model vs market
Live in-play co-pilot

Go Premium

Confidence Medium (59%)

At a glance

Our lean

AS Roma or draw

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

AS Roma

WLDWW

Lazio

WWWWL

Last 3 meetings AS Roma · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

The upcoming Serie A clash between AS Roma and Lazio, known as the Derby della Capitale, promises to be a fiercely contested match. AS Roma is currently performing well at home, boasting a strong record with an average of 2.1 goals per match at the Stadio Olimpico. Conversely, Lazio's away form has been inconsistent, with a win rate of only 40% in their last five away fixtures. Key players to watch include Roma’s Tammy Abraham, who has been crucial in their attack, and Lazio's Ciro Immobile, known for his goal-scoring prowess. Expect a tactical battle with both teams likely to prioritize defensive solidity while looking to capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lazio goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	8	5	2	1
1	10	12	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	1	2	1
5		1

↑ AS Roma goals · most likely 1–1 (12.1%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Why this pick? · Premium AI Deep-Dive · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: AS Roma vs Lazio

2 AS Roma Wins

1 Draws

0 Lazio Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
21 Sep 2025	Lazio	0 - 1	AS Roma
13 Apr 2025	Lazio	1 - 1	AS Roma
05 Jan 2025	AS Roma	2 - 0	Lazio

See all 10 meetings — Premium

AS Roma — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Aug	A Newport County	W	1 - 4
01 Aug	A Cardiff	L	4 - 1
26 Jul	A Cannes	D	3 - 3
24 May	A Hellas Verona	W	0 - 2
17 May	H Lazio	W	2 - 0

Lazio — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Aug	H Ostia Mare	W	4 - 0
02 Aug	A Ascoli	W	1 - 2
01 Aug	H Avellino	W	6 - 3
23 May	H Pisa	W	2 - 1
17 May	A AS Roma	L	2 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lazio

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Maurizio Sarri

55 Furlanetto

17 Tavares

25 Provstgaard

34 Gila

77 Marusic

24 Taylor

6 Rovella

26 Basic

14 Noslin

19 Dia

22 Cancellieri

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
55	A. Furlanetto	G
77	A. Marusic	D
34	M. Gila	D
25	O. Provstgaard	D
17	N. Tavares	D
26	T. Basic	M
6	N. Rovella	M
24	K. Taylor	M
22	M. Cancellieri	F
19	B. Dia	F
14	T. Noslin	F

Substitutes

99	G. Giacomone	G
72	N. Pannozzo	G
9	Pedro	F
23	E. Hysaj	D
29	M. Lazzari	M
3	L. Pellegrini	D
32	D. Cataldi	M
2	S. Gigot	D
18	G. Isaksen	F
7	F. Dele-Bashiru	M
27	D. Maldini	F
20	P. Ratkov	F
21	R. Belahyane	M
28	A. Przyborek	M

AS Roma

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Piero Gasperini Gian

99 Svilar

22 Hermoso

5 Ndicka

23 Mancini

43 Franca

8 Aynaoui

4 Cristante

19 Celik

61 Pisilli

21 Dybala

14 Malen

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
99	M. Svilar	G
23	G. Mancini	D
5	E. Ndicka	D
22	M. Hermoso	D
19	Z. Celik	M
4	B. Cristante	M
8	N. El Aynaoui	M
43	Wesley Franca	M
21	P. Dybala	F
61	N. Pisilli	F
14	D. Malen	F

Substitutes

70	G. De Marzi	G
95	P. Gollini	G
92	S. El Shaarawy	F
12	K. Tsimikas	D
24	J. Ziolkowski	D
78	R. Vaz	F
3	Angelino	D
9	A. Dovbyk	F
2	D. Rensch	D
18	M. Soule	F
87	D. Ghilardi	D