Cagliari vs Torino Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 37

Post on X

Torino

Away

Unipol Domus, Cagliari

AI call Cagliari or draw

37%

31%

32%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Cagliari vs Torino prediction: Sportiko gives Cagliari a 37% chance of winning, Torino 32% and the draw 31%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Cagliari claimed a vital Serie A victory over Torino in a breathless first half that produced all three goals. Rafael Obrador broke the deadlock in the 37th minute, only for Sebastiano Esposito to equalise just two minutes later. Yerry Mina then headed Cagliari back in front on the stroke of half-time, ensuring the hosts carried a 2–1 advantage into the break.

The second half was a more measured affair, with Torino — who enjoyed 55% possession — unable to find the equaliser despite their territorial dominance. Cagliari's defence held firm through a series of substitutions from both benches, with Duván Zapata introduced by Torino in the 59th minute in search of a response. A flashpoint arrived in the 82nd minute when both Paul Mendy and Guillermo Maripán received yellow cards, with Mendy subsequently withdrawn.

Cagliari ultimately deserved their win, registering a superior expected goals figure of 1.32 against Torino's 0.99 and earning five corner kicks to the visitors' one. The result was in line with our pre-match AI model, which had rated a Cagliari victory as the most likely outcome at 37%.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 37'

Rafael Obrador assist: Matteo Prati

Sebastiano Esposito assist: Gianluca Gaetano

39' ⚽ 1–1

Yerry Mina

45' ⚽ 2–1

HT 2–1

⇄ 46'

Luca Marianucci ⇄ Guillermo Maripán

⇄ 59'

Duván Zapata ⇄ Che Adams

⇄ 59'

Matteo Prati ⇄ Cesare Casadei

Alessandro Deiola ⇄ Michael Folorunsho

72' ⇄

Michel Adopo ⇄ Ibrahim Sulemana

72' ⇄

⇄ 77'

Marcus Pedersen ⇄ Alieu Njie

Paul Mendy Yellow Card

82' ▮

▮ 82'

Guillermo Maripán Yellow Card

Paul Mendy ⇄ Andrea Belotti

82' ⇄

Sebastiano Esposito ⇄ Juan Rodríguez

82' ⇄

⇄ 85'

Emirhan İlkhan ⇄ Sandro Kulenović

FT 2–1

Cagliari

Match Stats

Torino

45% Ball Possession 55%

1.32 Expected Goals (xG) 0.99

13 Total Shots 10

4 Shots on Goal 3

6 Shots off Goal 2

3 Blocked Shots 5

8 Shots insidebox 6

5 Shots outsidebox 4

5 Corner Kicks 1

1 Offsides 1

8 Fouls 13

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 1

413 Total passes 510

343 Passes accurate 434

83% Passes % 85%

-0.72 goals_prevented -0.72

Cagliari

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
94 Sebastiano Esposito M	8.3	82'	1	–	1	38 (32%)	3
26 Yerry Mina D	7.7	90'	1	–	1	51 (47%)	1
22 Alberto Dossena D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	42 (42%)	2
10 Gianluca Gaetano M	7.2	90'	–	1	–	56 (52%)	2
1 Elia Caprile G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	31 (15%)	–
15 Juan Rodríguez D	6.9	8'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
33 Adam Obert D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	42 (37%)	2
25 Ibrahim Sulemana M	6.9	18'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	1
28 Gabriele Zappa D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	45 (35%)	1
19 Andrea Belotti F	6.9	8'	–	–	–	1	–
14 Alessandro Deiola M	6.7	72'	–	–	1	21 (16%)	3
90 Michael Folorunsho M	6.7	18'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	–
2 Marco Palestra M	6.6	90'	–	–	2	22 (17%)	2
8 Michel Adopo M	6.6	72'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	1
31 Paul Mendy F	5.6	82'	–	–	4	19 (13%)	–

Torino

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
33 Rafael Obrador M	7.9	90'	1	–	1	27 (22%)	3
23 Saúl Coco D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	65 (58%)	3
10 Nikola Vlašić F	7.2	90'	–	–	–	57 (49%)	3
13 Guillermo Maripán D	7.0	45'	–	–	–	41 (38%)	–
19 Che Adams F	6.7	31'	–	–	2	13 (10%)	–
4 Matteo Prati M	6.7	59'	–	1	–	38 (29%)	2
22 Cesare Casadei M	6.7	31'	–	–	–	17 (14%)	1
92 Alieu Njie F	6.6	13'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	1
77 Enzo Ebosse D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	87 (79%)	–
17 Sandro Kulenović F	6.5	11'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	1
6 Emirhan İlkhan M	6.5	85'	–	–	–	45 (39%)	–
35 Luca Marianucci D	6.3	45'	–	–	–	32 (25%)	3
16 Marcus Pedersen M	6.2	77'	–	–	–	16 (11%)	1
18 Giovanni Simeone F	6.2	90'	–	–	2	22 (20%)	1
91 Duván Zapata F	6.2	59'	–	–	–	20 (14%)	1
1 Alberto Paleari G	6.0	90'	–	–	–	25 (23%)	–

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Our lean

Cagliari or draw

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Cagliari

DWDWW

Torino

WLDDL

Last 3 meetings Cagliari · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Cagliari will host Torino in a crucial Serie A clash on May 17, 2026. Cagliari's home form has been inconsistent, with a win rate of 40% at the Sardegna Arena this season, while Torino has shown resilience away, boasting a slightly higher win rate of 45% on the road. Key players to watch include Cagliari’s top scorer, who has delivered in crucial moments, and Torino’s defense, which has kept 6 clean sheets this season. With both teams vying for mid-table security, expect a tightly contested match with potential playoff implications.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Torino goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	13	13	6	2
1	14	14	6	2
2	7	7	3	1
3	3	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Cagliari goals · most likely 1–0 (14.1%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Cagliari vs Torino

2 Cagliari Wins

0 Draws

1 Torino Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
27 Dec 2025	Torino	1 - 2	Cagliari
24 Jan 2025	Torino	2 - 0	Cagliari
20 Oct 2024	Cagliari	3 - 2	Torino

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Cagliari — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	A Union Berlin	D	2 - 2
28 Jul	H Modena	W	1 - 0
23 Jul	A Sampdoria	D	0 - 0
24 May	A AC Milan	W	1 - 2
17 May	H Torino	W	2 - 1

Torino — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	A Burnley	W	0 - 1
25 Jul	H Cittadella	L	0 - 1
22 Jul	H Alcione	D	0 - 0
24 May	H Juventus	D	2 - 2
17 May	A Cagliari	L	2 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Cagliari

Formation: 4-3-2-1 Coach: Fabio Pisacane

1 Caprile

33 Obert

22 Dossena

26 Mina

28 Zappa

14 Deiola

10 Gaetano

8 Adopo

94 Esposito

2 Palestra

31 Mendy

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	E. Caprile	G
28	G. Zappa	D
26	Y. Mina	D
22	A. Dossena	D
33	A. Obert	D
8	M. Adopo	M
10	G. Gaetano	M
14	A. Deiola	M
2	M. Palestra	M
94	S. Esposito	M
31	P. Mendy	F

Substitutes

24	G. Ciocci	G
12	A. Sherri	G
19	A. Belotti	F
90	M. Folorunsho	M
25	I. Sulemana	M
15	J. Rodriguez	D
29	G. Borrelli	F
9	S. Kilicsoy	F
20	A. Albarracin	F

Torino

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Leonardo Colucci

1 Paleari

77 Ebosse

23 Coco

35 Marianucci

33 Obrador

4 Prati

6 Ilkhan

16 Pedersen

10 Vlasic

18 Simeone

91 Zapata

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	A. Paleari	G
35	L. Marianucci	D
23	S. Coco	D
77	E. Ebosse	D
16	M. Pedersen	M
6	E. Ilkhan	M
4	M. Prati	M
33	R. Obrador	M
18	G. Simeone	F
10	N. Vlasic	F
91	D. Zapata	F

Substitutes

81	F. Israel	G
99	L. Siviero	G
34	C. Biraghi	D
20	V. Lazaro	D
17	S. Kulenovic	F
25	N. Nkounkou	D
93	M. Pellini	D
13	G. Maripan	D
19	C. Adams	F
22	C. Casadei	M
8	I. Ilic	M
79	Z. Savva	-
92	A. Njie	F
83	S. Perciun	M
94	W. Acquah	M