Lazio vs Inter Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 36

Post on X

Inter

Away

AI call Inter or draw

27%

25%

48%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Lazio vs Inter prediction: Sportiko gives Lazio a 27% chance of winning, Inter 48% and the draw 25%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Inter made a commanding start at the Stadio Olimpico, with Lautaro Martínez breaking the deadlock as early as the sixth minute. Petar Sučić doubled the advantage just before half-time, leaving Lazio with a mountain to climb after the interval. Inter's 58% possession and superior expected goals figure of 1.23 to Lazio's 0.63 reflected their control throughout the first half.

The second half took a decisive turn when Alessio Romagnoli's yellow card was upgraded via VAR to a red in the 59th minute, reducing Lazio to ten men and effectively ending any realistic hope of a comeback. Henrikh Mkhitaryan capitalised on the numerical advantage, adding a third goal in the 76th minute to seal a convincing away victory.

Inter's clinical display — converting five shots on goal into three — will be a source of satisfaction for their coaching staff. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Inter win as the most likely outcome at 48%, a call that proved correct as the visitors controlled proceedings from first whistle to last.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 6'

Lautaro Martínez assist: Marcus Thuram

⚽ 0–2 39'

Petar Sučić assist: Lautaro Martínez

HT 0–2

⇄ 46'

Nicolò Barella ⇄ Davide Frattesi

⇄ 46'

Marcus Thuram ⇄ Ange-Yoan Bonny

Luca Pellegrini Yellow Card

48' ▮

Nicolò Rovella ⇄ Patric

56' ⇄

Matteo Cancellieri ⇄ Gustav Isaksen

56' ⇄

Mario Gila Fuentes ⇄ Oliver Provstgaard

56' ⇄

Alessio Romagnoli Card upgrade

58' 🖵

Alessio Romagnoli Red Card

59' ▮

Pedro ⇄ Boulaye Dia

62' ⇄

⇄ 63'

Lautaro Martínez ⇄ D. Dumfries

⇄ 63'

Alessandro Bastoni ⇄ Luís Henrique

Tijjani Noslin Yellow Card

74' ▮

⚽ 0–3 76'

Henrikh Mkhitaryan assist: Ange-Yoan Bonny

Adam Marušić ⇄ Manuel Lazzari

77' ⇄

⇄ 80'

Petar Sučić ⇄ Mattia Mosconi

▮ 85'

Henrikh Mkhitaryan Yellow Card

FT 0–3

Lazio

Match Stats

Inter

42% Ball Possession 58%

0.63 Expected Goals (xG) 1.23

9 Total Shots 14

5 Shots on Goal 5

3 Shots off Goal 6

1 Blocked Shots 3

4 Shots insidebox 10

5 Shots outsidebox 4

5 Corner Kicks 1

0 Offsides 1

10 Fouls 8

2 Yellow Cards 1

1 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 4

450 Total passes 640

404 Passes accurate 593

90% Passes % 93%

0.70 goals_prevented 0.70

Lazio

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
14 Tijjani Noslin F	7.5	90'	–	–	2	29 (26%)	1
34 Mario Gila Fuentes D	6.7	56'	–	–	–	46 (43%)	–
29 Manuel Lazzari M	6.6	13'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	1
6 Nicolò Rovella M	6.6	56'	–	–	–	57 (54%)	2
18 Gustav Isaksen F	6.3	34'	–	–	3	7 (7%)	–
9 Pedro F	6.3	62'	–	–	1	26 (21%)	1
22 Matteo Cancellieri F	6.3	56'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
19 Boulaye Dia F	6.3	28'	–	–	1	8 (6%)	–
26 Toma Bašić M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	43 (35%)	–
3 Luca Pellegrini D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	41 (36%)	1
40 Edoardo Motta G	6.2	90'	–	–	–	31 (25%)	–
25 Oliver Provstgaard D	6.2	34'	–	–	–	20 (19%)	–
4 Patric D	6.2	34'	–	–	–	20 (19%)	–
7 Fisayo Dele-Bashiru M	6.0	90'	–	–	–	30 (29%)	–
77 Adam Marušić D	5.6	77'	–	–	–	46 (42%)	–
13 Alessio Romagnoli D	5.6	59'	–	–	–	30 (29%)	–

Inter

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Petar Sučić M	8.3	80'	1	–	1	85 (82%)	3
22 Henrikh Mkhitaryan M	8.2	90'	1	–	1	65 (57%)	2
10 Lautaro Martínez F	8.0	63'	1	1	1	21 (16%)	1
13 Josep Martínez G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	45 (45%)	–
30 Carlos Augusto M	7.3	90'	–	–	1	63 (60%)	2
15 Francesco Acerbi D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	106 (103%)	–
95 Alessandro Bastoni D	7.0	63'	–	–	–	80 (73%)	–
9 Marcus Thuram F	6.9	45'	–	1	1	10 (10%)	–
17 Andy Diouf M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	30 (25%)	4
31 Yann Bisseck D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	55 (51%)	–
14 Ange-Yoan Bonny F	6.7	45'	–	1	–	4 (4%)	–
2 D. Dumfries D	6.7	27'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	1
11 Luís Henrique F	6.7	27'	–	–	–	19 (18%)	–
16 Davide Frattesi M	6.5	45'	–	–	2	6 (6%)	–
23 Nicolò Barella M	6.3	45'	–	–	2	38 (32%)	1
48 Mattia Mosconi F	6.2	10'	–	–	1	5 (5%)	–

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Confidence Medium (59%)

At a glance

Our lean

Inter or draw

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Lazio

WDWWW

Inter

DWLWW

Last 3 meetings Lazio · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash, Lazio will host Inter on May 10, 2026. Lazio has demonstrated solid home form, winning 65% of their home matches this season, while Inter boasts the league's best away record with an impressive 70% win rate on the road. Key players to watch include Lazio's top scorer, who has netted 15 goals this season, and Inter's creative midfielder, contributing 10 assists. Historically, matches between these two sides have been tightly contested, with Inter slightly edging the head-to-head record. Expect a tactical battle, as both teams vie for critical points in the race for European qualification.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Inter goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	11	8	4	2	1
1	8	12	9	5	2	1
2	4	7	5	3	1
3	2	2	2	1
4		1	1
5

↑ Lazio goals · most likely 1–1 (11.9%)

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Players in form

Lazio

D. Frattesi 3 gls

Inter

Lautaro Martínez 4 gls

M. Thuram 2 gls

F. Esposito 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Lazio vs Inter

0 Lazio Wins

1 Draws

2 Inter Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
09 Nov 2025	Inter	2 - 0	Lazio
18 May 2025	Inter	2 - 2	Lazio
16 Dec 2024	Lazio	0 - 6	Inter

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Lazio — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Venezia	W	0 - 2
12 Sep	H AC Milan	D	2 - 2
07 Sep	A Udinese	W	1 - 2
30 Aug	H Genoa	W	1 - 0
24 Aug	A Bologna	W	0 - 1

Inter — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A AS Roma	D	2 - 2
14 Sep	H Udinese	W	5 - 3
08 Sep	A Real Madrid	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	H Napoli	W	3 - 2
30 Aug	A Cagliari	W	0 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14	3	+11	13
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	15	8	+7	13
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	5	2	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10	4	+6	11
6	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	9	4	+5	10
7	Juventus	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
8	Como	5	3	1	1	9	6	+3	10
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7	6	+1	7
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9	9	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5	7	-2	6
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5	10	-5	6
13	Udinese	5	1	1	3	8	11	-3	4
14	Torino	5	1	1	3	5	8	-3	4
15	Parma	5	1	1	3	4	7	-3	4
16	Monza	5	1	1	3	8	12	-4	4
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6	12	-6	4
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3	6	-3	2
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	3	10	-7	1
20	Venezia	5	0	0	5	4	13	-9	0

Lazio

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Maurizio Sarri

40 Motta

3 Pellegrini

13 Romagnoli

34 Gila

77 Marusic

26 Basic

6 Rovella

7 Dele-Bashiru

9 Pedro

14 Noslin

22 Cancellieri

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
40	E. Motta	G
77	A. Marusic	D
34	M. Gila	D
13	A. Romagnoli	D
3	L. Pellegrini	D
7	F. Dele-Bashiru	M
6	N. Rovella	M
26	T. Basic	M
22	M. Cancellieri	F
14	T. Noslin	F
9	Pedro	F

Substitutes

55	A. Furlanetto	G
99	G. Giacomone	G
23	E. Hysaj	D
29	M. Lazzari	M
24	K. Taylor	M
4	Patric	D
2	S. Gigot	D
18	G. Isaksen	F
17	N. Tavares	D
19	B. Dia	F
27	D. Maldini	F
25	O. Provstgaard	D
20	P. Ratkov	F
21	R. Belahyane	M
28	A. Przyborek	M

Inter

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Cristian Chivu

13 Martinez

95 Bastoni

15 Acerbi

31 Bisseck

30 Augusto

22 Mkhitaryan

8 Sucic

23 Barella

17 Diouf

10 Martinez

9 Thuram

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	J. Martinez	G
31	Y. Bisseck	D
15	F. Acerbi	D
95	A. Bastoni	D
17	A. Diouf	M
23	N. Barella	M
8	P. Sucic	M
22	H. Mkhitaryan	M
30	Carlos Augusto	M
9	M. Thuram	F
10	L. Martinez	F

Substitutes

1	Y. Sommer	G
12	R. Di Gennaro	G
7	P. Zielinski	M
36	M. Darmian	D
6	S. de Vrij	D
2	D. Dumfries	D
16	D. Frattesi	M
43	M. Cocchi	D
48	M. Mosconi	F
32	F. Dimarco	D
25	M. Akanji	D
11	Luis Henrique	F
14	A. Bonny	F