Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34

Post on X

FC Augsburg

Away

Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

AI call FC Augsburg or draw

32%

30%

38%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg prediction: Sportiko gives Union Berlin a 32% chance of winning, FC Augsburg 38% and the draw 30%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Union Berlin produced a dominant home display to thrash FC Augsburg 4–0 in the final Bundesliga matchday of the season, with Andrej Ilić the standout performer. The Serbian striker opened the scoring in the 10th minute and doubled the lead just before half-time in the 42nd, giving Union a commanding 2–0 advantage at the break despite the visitors carrying a yellow card each for Oliver Burke and Christopher Trimmel.

The second half brought more of the same, as András Schäfer extended the lead in the 54th minute before a flurry of substitutions from both sides disrupted the rhythm of the game. Augsburg struggled to find a foothold, and Woo-Yeong Jeong rounded off the scoring in the 89th minute to complete a convincing victory. The underlying numbers told a stark story — Augsburg managed just one shot on target compared to Union's nine, with expected goals heavily favouring the hosts at 3.68 to 0.61.

Our pre-match AI model had rated an Augsburg win as the most likely outcome at 38%, a call that proved well wide of the mark as Union ran out emphatic winners.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Andrej Ilić assist: András Schäfer

10' ⚽ 1–0

Oliver Burke Yellow Card

24' ▮

Christopher Trimmel Yellow Card

26' ▮

Andrej Ilić assist: Oliver Burke

42' ⚽ 2–0

HT 2–0

András Schäfer assist: Livan Burcu

54' ⚽ 3–0

⇄ 55'

Mert Kömür ⇄ Rodrigo Ribeiro

⇄ 55'

Yannik Keitel ⇄ Han-Noah Massengo

⇄ 61'

Marius Wolf ⇄ Mads Pedersen

⇄ 61'

Chrislain Matsima ⇄ Noahkai Banks

▮ 63'

Han-Noah Massengo Yellow Card

Christopher Trimmel ⇄ Josip Juranović

64' ⇄

Ilyas Ansah ⇄ Woo-Yeong Jeong

65' ⇄

Aljoscha Kemlein Yellow Card

70' ▮

Livan Burcu ⇄ Tim Skarke

71' ⇄

⇄ 77'

Michael Gregoritsch ⇄ Uchenna Ogundu

Andrej Ilić ⇄ Leopold Querfeld

86' ⇄

Oliver Burke

86' ⇄

Woo-Yeong Jeong

89' ⚽ 4–0

FT 4–0

Union Berlin

Match Stats

FC Augsburg

49% Ball Possession 51%

3.68 Expected Goals (xG) 0.61

17 Total Shots 11

9 Shots on Goal 1

3 Shots off Goal 6

5 Blocked Shots 4

10 Shots insidebox 6

7 Shots outsidebox 5

4 Corner Kicks 9

2 Offsides 3

6 Fouls 7

3 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 5

450 Total passes 448

376 Passes accurate 369

84% Passes % 82%

0.18 goals_prevented 0.18

Union Berlin

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Andrej Ilić F	9.0	86'	2	–	3	19 (13%)	1
13 András Schäfer M	8.9	90'	1	1	1	53 (50%)	4
11 Woo-Yeong Jeong M	7.7	25'	1	–	1	2 (2%)	–
28 Christopher Trimmel D	7.7	65'	–	–	1	41 (34%)	1
4 Diogo Leite D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	67 (60%)	2
15 Tom Rothe D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	31 (27%)	2
18 Josip Juranović D	7.3	25'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
25 Carl Klaus G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	37 (22%)	–
9 Livan Burcu M	7.2	71'	–	1	1	32 (30%)	–
6 Aljoscha Kemlein M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	55 (51%)	3
21 Tim Skarke M	6.9	19'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–
5 Danilho Doekhi D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	58 (49%)	–
7 Oliver Burke M	6.6	86'	–	1	1	24 (17%)	–
10 Ilyas Ansah M	6.5	65'	–	–	1	22 (15%)	–
14 Leopold Querfeld D	—	4'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	1
30 Dmytro Bogdanov F	—	4'	–	–	2	–	–

FC Augsburg

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
40 Noahkai Banks D	7.5	29'	–	–	–	17 (17%)	3
4 Han-Noah Massengo M	6.9	35'	–	–	–	27 (24%)	1
30 Anton Kade F	6.6	90'	–	–	4	16 (14%)	1
6 Jeffrey Gouweleeuw D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	64 (50%)	5
27 Marius Wolf M	6.5	61'	–	–	–	25 (18%)	3
19 Robin Fellhauer M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	33 (28%)	–
14 Yannik Keitel M	6.5	55'	–	–	–	28 (24%)	1
16 Cedric Zesiger D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	65 (54%)	2
21 Rodrigo Ribeiro F	6.3	35'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	2
3 Mads Pedersen D	6.3	29'	–	–	1	9 (7%)	–
5 Chrislain Matsima D	6.3	61'	–	–	–	25 (24%)	3
32 Fabian Rieder M	6.2	90'	–	–	–	62 (50%)	2
38 Michael Gregoritsch F	6.2	77'	–	–	–	13 (8%)	–
39 Uchenna Ogundu F	6.2	13'	–	–	2	1 (1%)	–
36 Mert Kömür F	6.2	55'	–	–	–	28 (24%)	–
1 Finn Dahmen G	5.7	90'	–	–	–	27 (19%)	–

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Confidence Medium (56%)

At a glance

Our lean

FC Augsburg or draw

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Union Berlin

DLDLD

FC Augsburg

WDLWW

Last 3 meetings Union Berlin · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Union Berlin hosts FC Augsburg in a crucial Bundesliga clash on May 16, 2026. Union has shown strong home form, with a 65% win rate at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei this season, bolstered by a robust defense that has conceded just 22 goals at home. Augsburg, on the other hand, struggles on the road, recording only 3 wins away from home this season and facing difficulties in scoring against organized defenses. Expect Union to leverage their home advantage and solid defensive structure, while Augsburg will need to find a way to exploit any gaps to secure valuable points in their survival bid.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FC Augsburg goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	13	7	3	1
1	12	13	8	3	1
2	6	7	4	1
3	2	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Union Berlin goals · most likely 1–1 (13.4%)

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Head to Head: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg

1 Union Berlin Wins

1 Draws

1 FC Augsburg Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Jan 2026	FC Augsburg	1 - 1	Union Berlin
17 May 2025	FC Augsburg	1 - 2	Union Berlin
15 Jan 2025	Union Berlin	0 - 2	FC Augsburg

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Union Berlin — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	H Cagliari	D	2 - 2
01 Aug	A Dynamo Dresden	L	2 - 1
17 Jul	A FC Winterthur	D	0 - 0
12 Jul	A FC Carl Zeiss Jena	L	1 - 0
09 Jul	A Chemnitzer FC	D	1 - 1

FC Augsburg — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Aug	A Schwaz	W	0 - 15
25 Jul	H FC Saarbrücken	D	1 - 1
16 May	A Union Berlin	L	4 - 0
09 May	H Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 1
02 May	A Werder Bremen	W	1 - 3

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0