1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34

Post on X

FSV Mainz 05

Away

Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz

AI call Difficult FSV Mainz 05 win or draw

16%

25%

59%

Home Win Draw Away Win

1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction: Sportiko gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 16% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 59% and the draw 25%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Mainz 05 made a decisive start to secure a comfortable 2–0 victory away at Heidenheim on the final day of the Bundesliga regular season. Phillip Tietz struck early in the seventh minute to put the visitors ahead, and Nadiem Amiri doubled the advantage just before half-time, ensuring Mainz went into the break with a commanding two-goal cushion.

The second half saw both sides make multiple changes, with Heidenheim pushing for a way back into the contest. Despite generating the higher expected goals figure of 3.71 and registering nine shots on target, the hosts were unable to convert their opportunities. A brief flare-up midway through the half saw both Eren Dinkçi and Sheraldo Becker receive yellow cards in the 70th minute, with both subsequently substituted shortly after.

Mainz controlled possession at 53% and limited Heidenheim effectively when it mattered, holding firm to claim all three points. The result aligned with the pre-match AI model, which had rated a Mainz win as the most likely outcome at 59%.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 7'

Phillip Tietz

⚽ 0–2 43'

Nadiem Amiri assist: Phillip Tietz

HT 0–2

Marvin Pieringer ⇄ Christian Joe Conteh

46' ⇄

Marnon Busch ⇄ Haktab Omar Traore

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

Stefan Posch ⇄ Danny da Costa

Arijon Ibrahimović ⇄ Stefan Schimmer

65' ⇄

⇄ 68'

Silvan Widmer ⇄ Anthony Caci

⇄ 68'

Nadiem Amiri ⇄ Jae-sung Lee

Eren Dinkçi Yellow Card

70' ▮

▮ 70'

Sheraldo Becker Yellow Card

Eren Dinkçi ⇄ Mathias Honsak

73' ⇄

Niklas Dorsch ⇄ Adrian Beck

73' ⇄

⇄ 77'

Sheraldo Becker ⇄ Lennard Maloney

⇄ 84'

Phillip Tietz ⇄ Nelson Weiper

FT 0–2

1. FC Heidenheim

Match Stats

FSV Mainz 05

53% Ball Possession 47%

2.53 Expected Goals (xG) 3.71

15 Total Shots 15

5 Shots on Goal 9

6 Shots off Goal 4

4 Blocked Shots 2

12 Shots insidebox 10

3 Shots outsidebox 5

6 Corner Kicks 3

3 Offsides 1

8 Fouls 12

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

5 Goalkeeper Saves 5

428 Total passes 389

345 Passes accurate 302

81% Passes % 78%

2.06 goals_prevented 2.06

1. FC Heidenheim

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
40 Frank Feller G	8.7	90'	–	–	–	30 (25%)	1
11 Budu Zivzivadze F	7.5	90'	–	–	4	11 (10%)	2
6 Patrick Mainka D	7.2	90'	–	–	2	48 (40%)	–
19 Jonas Föhrenbach D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	68 (63%)	3
8 Eren Dinkçi M	7.0	73'	–	–	1	23 (16%)	–
30 Niklas Dorsch M	6.9	73'	–	–	–	40 (37%)	1
17 Mathias Honsak F	6.9	17'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	1
23 Haktab Omar Traore D	6.9	45'	–	–	–	21 (14%)	2
21 Adrian Beck M	6.9	17'	–	–	–	17 (16%)	1
3 Jan Schöppner M	6.7	90'	–	–	1	46 (29%)	4
2 Marnon Busch D	6.6	45'	–	–	–	19 (14%)	1
9 Stefan Schimmer F	6.6	25'	–	–	1	–	2
22 Arijon Ibrahimović M	6.5	65'	–	–	1	23 (16%)	–
26 Hennes Behrens D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	49 (40%)	2
18 Marvin Pieringer F	6.3	45'	–	–	1	10 (7%)	–
10 Christian Joe Conteh F	6.3	45'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–

FSV Mainz 05

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
33 Daniel Batz G	9.3	90'	–	–	–	37 (22%)	–
48 Kacper Potulski D	8.5	90'	–	–	2	40 (34%)	2
10 Nadiem Amiri M	8.3	68'	1	–	3	44 (36%)	2
30 Silvan Widmer M	7.3	68'	–	–	–	23 (20%)	3
2 Phillipp Mwene M	7.3	90'	–	–	–	40 (35%)	3
21 Danny da Costa D	7.2	45'	–	–	–	12 (8%)	1
6 Kaishu Sano M	7.0	90'	–	–	1	37 (30%)	1
4 Stefan Posch D	6.9	45'	–	–	–	26 (18%)	–
31 Dominik Kohr D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	32 (28%)	3
23 Sheraldo Becker F	6.9	77'	–	–	2	17 (14%)	–
20 Phillip Tietz F	6.9	84'	1	1	2	26 (18%)	1
7 Jae-sung Lee M	6.7	22'	–	–	–	8 (5%)	2
15 Lennard Maloney M	6.6	13'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
19 Anthony Caci D	6.6	22'	–	–	–	10 (7%)	–
44 Nelson Weiper F	6.5	10'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
8 Paul Nebel M	6.3	90'	–	–	2	33 (25%)	1

Premium

Unlock the AI's full read on 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05

All 70+ probability markets
AI Deep-Dive match report
Value Edge — model vs market
Live in-play co-pilot

Go Premium

Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult FSV Mainz 05 win or draw

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

1. FC Heidenheim

WDDLW

FSV Mainz 05

DWWWW

Last 3 meetings 1. FC Heidenheim · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash on May 16, 2026, 1. FC Heidenheim hosts FSV Mainz 05. Heidenheim, having shown resilience at home, will look to leverage their solid defensive record, conceding an average of just 1.2 goals per match. Mainz 05, meanwhile, has struggled on the road, with a win rate of only 25% away from home this season. Key players to watch include Heidenheim's top scorer, who has netted 12 goals this season, and Mainz’s playmaker, who leads the team in assists. This match could be pivotal for both teams as they aim to secure crucial points in the relegation battle.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FSV Mainz 05 goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	16	13	7	3	1
1	7	11	9	5	2	1
2	2	4	3	2	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ 1. FC Heidenheim goals · most likely 0–1 (15.6%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Why this pick? · Premium AI Deep-Dive · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05

1 1. FC Heidenheim Wins

0 Draws

2 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
13 Jan 2026	FSV Mainz 05	2 - 1	1. FC Heidenheim
16 Feb 2025	1. FC Heidenheim	0 - 2	FSV Mainz 05
28 Sep 2024	FSV Mainz 05	0 - 2	1. FC Heidenheim

See all 5 meetings — Premium

1. FC Heidenheim — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H FC Ingolstadt 04	W	4 - 1
22 Jul	A Bologna	D	1 - 1
10 Jul	H FC Lugano	D	0 - 0
16 May	H FSV Mainz 05	L	0 - 2
10 May	A 1. FC Köln	W	1 - 3

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Udinese	D	3 - 3
31 Jul	H Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	W	1 - 0
25 Jul	H Holstein Kiel	W	3 - 0
17 Jul	H 1. FC Kaiserslautern	W	4 - 1
16 May	A 1. FC Heidenheim	W	0 - 2

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0