Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34

Post on X

Borussia Dortmund

Away

Weserstadion, Bremen

AI call Difficult Borussia Dortmund win or draw

18%

22%

60%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: Sportiko gives Werder Bremen a 18% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund 60% and the draw 22%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund were level at the break in a goalless first half, with the hosts holding a narrow edge in possession but struggling to create meaningful chances. The underlying numbers already told a telling story, as Dortmund were generating far greater attacking threat throughout.

The visitors broke the deadlock shortly after the restart when Serhou Guirassy converted in the 59th minute, and Dortmund's dominance was reflected in a shots-on-goal tally of 9 to Bremen's 3. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Dortmund win as the most likely outcome at 60%, a call that proved correct. Yan Couto wrapped up the points with a second goal in the 90th minute, putting the result beyond doubt.

Dortmund's expected goals figure of 2.74 against Bremen's 0.49 underlined how thoroughly they controlled the contest in terms of genuine scoring opportunities. The win was built on defensive solidity in the first half and clinical finishing after the break, with Borussia Dortmund thoroughly deserving their 2–0 victory on Matchday 34.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0

Amos Pieper ⇄ Marco Friedl

46' ⇄

Isaac Schmidt ⇄ Marco Grüll

53' ⇄

⚽ 0–1 59'

Serhou Guirassy assist: Julian Ryerson

Cameron Puertas ⇄ Patrice Čović

70' ⇄

Salim Musah ⇄ Samuel Mbangula

70' ⇄

⇄ 70'

Maximilian Beier ⇄ Julian Brandt

⇄ 70'

Samuele Inacio ⇄ Carney Chukwuemeka

⇄ 83'

Serhou Guirassy ⇄ Fábio Silva

⇄ 83'

Jobe Bellingham ⇄ Karim Adeyemi

⇄ 88'

Julian Ryerson ⇄ Yan Couto

⚽ 0–2 90'

Yan Couto assist: Karim Adeyemi

Romano Schmid ⇄ Leonardo Bittencourt

90+3' ⇄

FT 0–2

Werder Bremen

Match Stats

Borussia Dortmund

51% Ball Possession 49%

0.49 Expected Goals (xG) 2.74

9 Total Shots 17

3 Shots on Goal 9

3 Shots off Goal 3

3 Blocked Shots 5

5 Shots insidebox 14

4 Shots outsidebox 3

4 Corner Kicks 5

4 Offsides 0

8 Fouls 5

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

7 Goalkeeper Saves 3

515 Total passes 485

438 Passes accurate 413

85% Passes % 85%

0.18 goals_prevented 0.18

Werder Bremen

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
30 Mio Backhaus G	8.9	90'	–	–	–	39 (33%)	–
5 Amos Pieper D	7.2	45'	–	–	–	27 (25%)	1
2 Olivier Deman D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	53 (47%)	4
17 Marco Grüll F	7.2	37'	–	–	1	25 (22%)	–
23 Isaac Schmidt D	7.0	53'	–	–	1	33 (30%)	2
20 Romano Schmid M	6.9	89'	–	–	–	49 (41%)	–
7 Samuel Mbangula F	6.9	20'	–	–	1	9 (9%)	–
24 Patrice Čović M	6.7	20'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	2
29 Salim Musah F	6.7	70'	–	–	1	24 (15%)	2
14 Senne Lynen M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	50 (45%)	–
6 Jens Stage M	6.5	90'	–	–	1	39 (29%)	3
32 Marco Friedl D	6.3	45'	–	–	–	31 (28%)	1
18 Cameron Puertas M	6.3	70'	–	–	–	36 (29%)	3
11 Justin Njinmah M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	20 (15%)	1
31 Karim Coulibaly D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	65 (56%)	1
10 Leonardo Bittencourt M	—	1'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–

Borussia Dortmund

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
4 Nico Schlotterbeck D	7.9	90'	–	–	–	74 (61%)	3
3 Waldemar Anton D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	85 (80%)	1
24 Daniel Svensson M	7.5	90'	–	–	–	29 (23%)	1
2 Yan Couto D	7.3	8'	1	–	1	1 (1%)	–
1 Gregor Kobel G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	33 (25%)	–
8 Felix Nmecha M	7.2	90'	–	–	1	43 (40%)	2
26 Julian Ryerson M	7.2	88'	–	1	–	26 (18%)	–
9 Serhou Guirassy F	7.2	83'	1	–	6	17 (13%)	–
40 Samuele Inacio F	7.2	69'	–	–	1	29 (26%)	–
27 Karim Adeyemi F	6.9	13'	–	1	–	2 (2%)	–
49 Luca Reggiani D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	63 (56%)	1
17 Carney Chukwuemeka M	6.7	21'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
7 Jobe Bellingham M	6.6	83'	–	–	2	40 (38%)	2
10 Julian Brandt M	6.6	21'	–	–	–	14 (9%)	1
14 Maximilian Beier F	6.3	69'	–	–	–	18 (11%)	–
21 Fábio Silva F	6.3	13'	–	–	1	5 (4%)	–

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Confidence Medium (62%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Borussia Dortmund win or draw

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Werder Bremen

WWDLL

Borussia Dortmund

WLWWL

Last 3 meetings Werder Bremen · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash on May 16, 2026, Werder Bremen hosts Borussia Dortmund, a match that could have significant implications for both teams. Dortmund currently sits in a comfortable position within the top four, boasting one of the league's most potent attacks, averaging 2.3 goals per game this season. Conversely, Bremen has struggled defensively, conceding 1.8 goals per game, which could be a critical factor. Historically, Dortmund has dominated this fixture, winning 65% of their encounters in recent years. Expect Dortmund to leverage their attacking prowess against a vulnerable Bremen backline while the home side will need to capitalize on any defensive lapses from the visitors.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Borussia Dortmund goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	10	10	7	3	1
1	5	10	10	7	3	1
2	3	5	5	3	2	1
3	1	2	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Werder Bremen goals · most likely 0–1 (10.4%)

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Head to Head: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund

0 Werder Bremen Wins

2 Draws

1 Borussia Dortmund Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
13 Jan 2026	Borussia Dortmund	3 - 0	Werder Bremen
25 Jan 2025	Borussia Dortmund	2 - 2	Werder Bremen
31 Aug 2024	Werder Bremen	0 - 0	Borussia Dortmund

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Werder Bremen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Energie Cottbus	W	2 - 4
25 Jul	H VfL Bochum	W	2 - 0
22 Jul	H Fagiano Okayama	D	0 - 0
16 May	H Borussia Dortmund	L	0 - 2
09 May	A 1899 Hoffenheim	L	1 - 0

Borussia Dortmund — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A FC Tokyo	W	0 - 1
25 Jul	A Fortuna Düsseldorf	L	2 - 1
16 May	A Werder Bremen	W	0 - 2
08 May	H Eintracht Frankfurt	W	3 - 2
03 May	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	L	1 - 0

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0