SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34

Post on X

RB Leipzig

Away

Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

AI call Difficult RB Leipzig win or draw

25%

23%

52%

Home Win Draw Away Win

SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig prediction: Sportiko gives SC Freiburg a 25% chance of winning, RB Leipzig 52% and the draw 23%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

SC Freiburg produced a commanding home performance to defeat RB Leipzig 4–1 in the final Bundesliga matchday, despite the visitors dominating possession with 59% of the ball. The scoring burst came in a remarkable nine-minute spell, with Jan-Niklas Beste opening the account in the 24th minute before Igor Matanović doubled the lead two minutes later. Leipzig pulled one back through Assan Ouédraogo in the 33rd minute to make it 2–1 at the break.

Freiburg restored their two-goal cushion almost immediately after the restart, with Matthias Ginter converting in the 47th minute. Our pre-match AI model had rated an RB Leipzig victory as the most likely outcome at 52%, a call that proved well wide of the mark. A flurry of substitutions from both sides followed, and Derry Scherhant added a fourth for Freiburg in the 75th minute to put the result beyond doubt.

The scoreline was somewhat flattering to Freiburg given the underlying numbers — Leipzig actually edged them on shots on goal six to five and posted a slightly lower expected goals figure of 1.24 against Freiburg's 1.41 — but the hosts were ruthlessly clinical on the day.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Jan-Niklas Beste

24' ⚽ 1–0

Igor Matanović assist: Johan Manzambi

26' ⚽ 2–0

⚽ 2–1 33'

Assan Ouédraogo assist: Yan Diomande

HT 2–1

Matthias Ginter assist: Jordy Makengo

47' ⚽ 3–1

Jan-Niklas Beste ⇄ Vincenzo Grifo

60' ⇄

Nicolas Hofler ⇄ Lukas Kübler

60' ⇄

⇄ 63'

Benjamin Henrichs ⇄ Ridle Baku

⇄ 63'

Brajan Gruda ⇄ Antonio Nusa

Johan Manzambi ⇄ Lucas Höler

72' ⇄

Matthias Ginter ⇄ Bruno Ogbus

72' ⇄

⇄ 73'

Conrad Harder ⇄ Rômulo

⇄ 73'

Nicolas Seiwald ⇄ Tidiam Gomis

Derry Scherhant assist: Igor Matanović

75' ⚽ 4–1

▮ 77'

Christoph Baumgartner Yellow Card

⇄ 80'

Yan Diomande ⇄ Johan Bakayoko

Igor Matanović ⇄ Maximilian Philipp

86' ⇄

FT 4–1

SC Freiburg

Match Stats

RB Leipzig

41% Ball Possession 59%

1.41 Expected Goals (xG) 1.24

11 Total Shots 14

5 Shots on Goal 6

5 Shots off Goal 5

1 Blocked Shots 3

9 Shots insidebox 10

2 Shots outsidebox 4

1 Corner Kicks 2

1 Offsides 1

13 Fouls 7

0 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

5 Goalkeeper Saves 1

346 Total passes 490

280 Passes accurate 429

81% Passes % 88%

-1.85 goals_prevented -1.85

SC Freiburg

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
31 Igor Matanović F	8.0	86'	1	1	1	22 (13%)	–
28 Matthias Ginter D	8.0	72'	1	–	2	42 (38%)	–
1 Noah Atubolu G	7.9	90'	–	–	–	39 (30%)	–
7 Derry Scherhant M	7.7	90'	1	–	2	15 (11%)	3
44 Johan Manzambi M	7.3	72'	–	1	2	21 (18%)	1
19 Jan-Niklas Beste M	7.3	60'	1	–	1	24 (20%)	–
33 Jordy Makengo D	7.3	90'	–	1	–	29 (25%)	3
17 Lukas Kübler D	6.9	30'	–	–	–	11 (5%)	2
43 Bruno Ogbus D	6.9	18'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	1
32 Vincenzo Grifo M	6.9	30'	–	–	–	11 (11%)	2
27 Nicolas Hofler M	6.7	60'	–	–	–	13 (11%)	3
8 Maximilian Eggestein M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	34 (28%)	2
9 Lucas Höler F	6.6	18'	–	–	1	1 (1%)	–
29 Philipp Treu D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	33 (29%)	5
26 Maximilian Philipp F	6.3	9'	–	–	–	5 (2%)	–
3 Philipp Lienhart D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	39 (31%)	–

RB Leipzig

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Assan Ouédraogo M	7.3	90'	1	–	2	23 (23%)	1
49 Yan Diomande F	7.0	80'	–	1	3	24 (18%)	–
10 Brajan Gruda F	7.0	63'	–	–	–	17 (15%)	–
13 Nicolas Seiwald M	6.9	73'	–	–	–	46 (43%)	5
23 Castello Lukeba D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	89 (80%)	4
7 Antonio Nusa M	6.7	27'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	1
4 Willi Orbán D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	83 (75%)	2
27 Tidiam Gomis F	6.3	17'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
11 Conrad Harder F	6.3	73'	–	–	2	12 (9%)	–
9 Johan Bakayoko F	6.3	10'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
17 Ridle Baku D	6.2	27'	–	–	1	20 (18%)	–
14 Christoph Baumgartner M	6.2	90'	–	–	2	43 (33%)	1
40 Rômulo F	6.2	17'	–	–	1	6 (4%)	–
35 Max Finkgräfe D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	49 (43%)	6
1 Péter Gulácsi G	6.0	90'	–	–	–	31 (28%)	–
39 Benjamin Henrichs D	5.9	63'	–	–	–	25 (21%)	1

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Confidence Medium (61%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult RB Leipzig win or draw

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SC Freiburg

WLDLW

RB Leipzig

WLWLW

Last 3 meetings SC Freiburg · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash on May 16, SC Freiburg will host RB Leipzig, a match that could significantly impact both teams' aspirations for European competition. Freiburg, known for their disciplined defense, ranks in the top half for goals conceded, but they will face a potent Leipzig attack that boasts one of the league's highest scoring rates. Leipzig's away form has been strong, with an impressive win rate of over 60% in their last ten matches on the road. Freiburg will need to capitalize on set pieces and counter-attacks to exploit Leipzig's high defensive line. Ultimately, the match is likely to hinge on Freiburg's ability to disrupt Leipzig's fluid attacking play while taking advantage of any defensive lapses.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

RB Leipzig goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	9	8	5	2	1
1	6	11	10	6	3	1
2	4	6	6	3	2	1
3	1	2	2	1	1
4		1	1
5

↑ SC Freiburg goals · most likely 1–1 (10.9%)

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Head to Head: SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig

0 SC Freiburg Wins

1 Draws

2 RB Leipzig Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Jan 2026	RB Leipzig	2 - 0	SC Freiburg
08 Mar 2025	SC Freiburg	0 - 0	RB Leipzig
26 Oct 2024	RB Leipzig	3 - 1	SC Freiburg

See all 10 meetings — Premium

SC Freiburg — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
16 May	H RB Leipzig	W	4 - 1
10 May	A Hamburger SV	L	3 - 2
03 May	H VfL Wolfsburg	D	1 - 1
26 Apr	A Borussia Dortmund	L	4 - 0
19 Apr	H 1. FC Heidenheim	W	2 - 1

RB Leipzig — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Verl	W	4 - 0
16 May	A SC Freiburg	L	4 - 1
09 May	H FC St. Pauli	W	2 - 1
02 May	A Bayer Leverkusen	L	4 - 1
24 Apr	H Union Berlin	W	3 - 1

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0