Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34

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1. FC Köln

Away

AI call Bayern München to win

88%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln prediction: Sportiko gives Bayern München a 88% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln 3% and the draw 9%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Bayern München wrapped up their Bundesliga campaign with a commanding 5–1 victory over 1. FC Köln on the final matchday. Harry Kane set the tone with two goals in quick succession in the 10th and 13th minutes, before Köln hit back through Said El Mala in the 18th minute to briefly threaten a contest. Tom Bischof restored the two-goal cushion just four minutes later, and Bayern headed into the break with a comfortable 3–1 lead.

The second half was largely a formality for the hosts, who dominated possession at 69% and outshot Köln 19 to 9 across the 90 minutes. Kane completed his hat-trick on 69 minutes, with Nicolas Jackson adding a fifth in the 83rd minute to round off a convincing afternoon. Both sides made wholesale changes as the game wore on, with Manuel Neuer among those withdrawn after the hour mark.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Bayern win as the most likely outcome at 88%, a call that proved well-founded. The result underlined Bayern's superiority on home turf, with an expected goals figure of 3.05 reflecting their thoroughly dominant display.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Harry Kane assist: Joshua Kimmich

10' ⚽ 1–0

Harry Kane assist: Joshua Kimmich

13' ⚽ 2–0

⚽ 2–1 18'

Said El Mala

Tom Bischof assist: Lennart Karl

22' ⚽ 3–1

▮ 34'

Joel Schmied Yellow Card

Konrad Laimer Yellow Card

37' ▮

HT 3–1

Konrad Laimer ⇄ Josip Stanišić

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

Joel Schmied ⇄ Linton Maina

Manuel Neuer ⇄ Jonas Urbig

60' ⇄

Lennart Karl ⇄ Michael Olise

61' ⇄

Harry Kane assist: Leon Goretzka

69' ⚽ 4–1

⇄ 69'

Alessio Castro-Montes ⇄ Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson

Jamal Musiala ⇄ Raphaël Guerreiro

70' ⇄

⇄ 80'

Said El Mala ⇄ Jan Thielmann

⇄ 80'

Marius Bülter ⇄ Youssoupha Niang

Nicolas Jackson assist: Luis Díaz

83' ⚽ 5–1

Leon Goretzka ⇄ Nicolas Jackson

83' ⇄

⇄ 90+2'

Jakub Kamiński ⇄ Florian Kainz

FT 5–1

Bayern München

Match Stats

1. FC Köln

69% Ball Possession 31%

3.05 Expected Goals (xG) 0.98

19 Total Shots 9

7 Shots on Goal 2

7 Shots off Goal 3

5 Blocked Shots 4

11 Shots insidebox 8

8 Shots outsidebox 1

5 Corner Kicks 5

5 Offsides 1

6 Fouls 4

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 2

724 Total passes 327

659 Passes accurate 266

91% Passes % 81%

-2.54 goals_prevented -2.54

Bayern München

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Harry Kane F	10.0	90'	3	–	4	19 (16%)	1
20 Tom Bischof D	8.5	90'	1	–	1	83 (72%)	4
6 Joshua Kimmich M	8.3	90'	–	2	1	111 (102%)	2
11 Nicolas Jackson F	7.7	12'	1	–	1	4 (4%)	–
2 Dayot Upamecano D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	89 (85%)	2
17 Michael Olise M	7.5	29'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	–
4 Jonathan Tah D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	79 (78%)	–
14 Luis Díaz M	7.3	90'	–	1	3	51 (44%)	–
8 Leon Goretzka M	7.2	83'	–	1	–	70 (61%)	1
42 Lennart Karl M	7.2	61'	–	1	2	58 (54%)	–
44 Josip Stanišić D	6.9	45'	–	–	–	34 (30%)	1
40 Jonas Urbig G	6.9	30'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
27 Konrad Laimer D	6.5	45'	–	–	–	43 (41%)	4
22 Raphaël Guerreiro D	6.5	20'	–	–	1	15 (14%)	–
10 Jamal Musiala M	6.3	70'	–	–	1	22 (18%)	3
1 Manuel Neuer G	6.2	60'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	–

1. FC Köln

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
13 Said El Mala F	8.0	80'	1	–	1	14 (11%)	2
6 Eric Martel M	7.3	90'	–	–	1	40 (33%)	3
38 Youssoupha Niang F	6.5	9'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
18 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson M	6.3	21'	–	–	1	4 (3%)	–
37 Linton Maina M	6.3	45'	–	–	1	14 (12%)	–
30 Marius Bülter F	6.3	81'	–	–	1	21 (17%)	2
29 Jan Thielmann M	6.2	10'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
32 Kristoffer Lund D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	29 (23%)	2
16 Jakub Kamiński M	6.2	89'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	1
17 Alessio Castro-Montes M	6.2	69'	–	–	–	24 (15%)	1
39 Cenk Özkaçar D	5.9	90'	–	–	–	42 (40%)	2
22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D	5.9	90'	–	–	–	44 (36%)	1
1 Marvin Schwäbe G	5.5	90'	–	–	–	55 (44%)	–
2 Joel Schmied D	5.3	45'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
28 Sebastian Sebulonsen D	5.2	90'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	–
11 Florian Kainz M	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Medium (60%)

At a glance

Our lean

Bayern München to win

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Bayern München

WLWWD

1. FC Köln

WLLDL

Last 3 meetings Bayern München · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

Bayern München will host 1. FC Köln in a pivotal Bundesliga clash on May 16, 2026. Bayern currently holds a dominant position in the league, boasting a high scoring average of 3.2 goals per match this season, aided by their prolific attack led by key players. Conversely, Köln has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per match. Historically, Bayern has a strong record against Köln, winning 75% of their last 12 encounters. Given their offensive prowess and Köln’s defensive vulnerabilities, Bayern is favored to secure a convincing victory in this match.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

1. FC Köln goals →

	0	1	2
0	4	1
1	12	4	1
2	17	6	1
3	17	6	1
4	13	4	1
5	8	3

↑ Bayern München goals · most likely 2–0 (17.3%)

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Head to Head: Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln

3 Bayern München Wins

0 Draws

0 1. FC Köln Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Jan 2026	1. FC Köln	1 - 3	Bayern München
13 Apr 2024	Bayern München	2 - 0	1. FC Köln
24 Nov 2023	1. FC Köln	0 - 1	Bayern München

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Bayern München — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Aug	H Aston Villa	W	2 - 1
25 Jul	A SV Wehen	L	2 - 1
16 May	H 1. FC Köln	W	5 - 1
09 May	A VfL Wolfsburg	W	0 - 1
02 May	H 1. FC Heidenheim	D	3 - 3

1. FC Köln — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
23 Jul	A Bergisch Gladbach	W	0 - 8
16 May	A Bayern München	L	5 - 1
10 May	H 1. FC Heidenheim	L	1 - 3
02 May	A Union Berlin	D	2 - 2
25 Apr	H Bayer Leverkusen	L	1 - 2

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Bayern München

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Vincent Kompany

1 Neuer

20 Bischof

4 Tah

2 Upamecano

27 Laimer

8 Goretzka

6 Kimmich

14 Diaz

10 Musiala

42 Karl

9 Kane

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	M. Neuer	G
27	K. Laimer	D
2	D. Upamecano	D
4	J. Tah	D
20	T. Bischof	D
6	J. Kimmich	M
8	L. Goretzka	M
42	L. Karl	M
10	J. Musiala	M
14	L. Diaz	M
9	H. Kane	F

Substitutes

26	S. Ulreich	G
40	J. Urbig	G
22	R. Guerreiro	D
17	M. Olise	M
11	N. Jackson	F
45	A. Pavlovic	M
21	H. Ito	D
44	J. Stanisic	D
39	B. Ndiaye	F

1. FC Köln

Formation: 5-3-2 Coach: Lukas Kwasniok

1 Schwabe

32 Lund

39 Ozkacar

22 Simpson-Pusey

2 Schmied

28 Sebulonsen

17 Castro-Montes

6 Martel

16 Kaminski

13 Mala

30 Bulter

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	M. Schwabe	G
28	S. Sebulonsen	D
2	J. Schmied	D
22	J. Simpson-Pusey	D
39	C. Ozkacar	D
32	K. Lund	D
16	J. Kaminski	M
6	E. Martel	M
17	A. Castro-Montes	M
30	M. Bulter	F
13	S. El Mala	F

Substitutes

20	R. Zieler	G
11	F. Kainz	M
7	L. Waldschmidt	F
37	L. Maina	M
18	I. Johannesson	M
29	J. Thielmann	M
27	F. Chavez	M
33	R. van den Berg	D
38	Y. Niang	F