1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33

Post on X

1. FC Heidenheim

Away

AI call 1. FC Köln or draw

42%

33%

25%

Home Win Draw Away Win

1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim prediction: Sportiko gives 1. FC Köln a 42% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim 25% and the draw 33%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

1. FC Heidenheim secured a comfortable 3–1 victory away at 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga Matchday 33, with the game's decisive action packed into a breathless opening half-hour. Jan Schöppner opened the scoring in the eighth minute, only for Marius Bülter to equalise almost immediately two minutes later. Heidenheim then took control when Arijon Ibrahimović struck in the 28th minute to put the visitors ahead at the break.

The second half offered little in the way of a Köln comeback, despite the hosts holding a slight edge in expected goals at 1.36 to 1.17. Heidenheim's Schöppner settled the contest with his second goal of the afternoon on 72 minutes, putting the result beyond doubt. Heidenheim dominated possession at 66 percent and registered 18 total shots to Köln's 11 throughout the contest.

The result was a surprise on paper — our pre-match AI model had rated a Köln home win as the most likely outcome at 42 percent — but Heidenheim's clinical finishing and territorial dominance told a different story on the day.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 8'

Jan Schöppner assist: Arijon Ibrahimović

Marius Bülter assist: Tom Krauß

10' ⚽ 1–1

⚽ 1–2 28'

Arijon Ibrahimović

▮ 30'

Eren Dinkçi Yellow Card

▮ 37'

Budu Zivzivadze Yellow Card

HT 1–2

Said El Mala Yellow Card

55' ▮

Tom Krauß ⇄ Luca Waldschmidt

58' ⇄

Linton Maina ⇄ Florian Kainz

71' ⇄

Joel Schmied ⇄ Alessio Castro-Montes

71' ⇄

⚽ 1–3 72'

Jan Schöppner

⇄ 76'

Haktab Omar Traore ⇄ Leonidas Stergiou

⇄ 76'

Arijon Ibrahimović ⇄ Christian Joe Conteh

⇄ 83'

Eren Dinkçi ⇄ Mathias Honsak

⇄ 83'

Budu Zivzivadze ⇄ Luca Kerber

Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Yellow Card

89' ▮

Cenk Özkaçar ⇄ Dominique Heintz

89' ⇄

Kristoffer Lund ⇄ Youssoupha Niang

89' ⇄

⇄ 89'

Marvin Pieringer ⇄ Stefan Schimmer

FT 1–3

1. FC Köln

Match Stats

1. FC Heidenheim

66% Ball Possession 34%

1.17 Expected Goals (xG) 1.36

18 Total Shots 11

7 Shots on Goal 5

4 Shots off Goal 4

7 Blocked Shots 2

10 Shots insidebox 11

8 Shots outsidebox 0

6 Corner Kicks 4

0 Offsides 3

9 Fouls 8

2 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 6

561 Total passes 278

489 Passes accurate 205

87% Passes % 74%

0.28 goals_prevented 0.28

1. FC Köln

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
5 Tom Krauß M	7.3	58'	–	1	–	41 (39%)	2
37 Linton Maina M	7.2	71'	–	–	–	26 (23%)	–
30 Marius Bülter F	7.2	90'	1	–	3	27 (22%)	–
16 Jakub Kamiński M	7.0	90'	–	–	–	40 (38%)	–
2 Joel Schmied D	7.0	71'	–	–	–	56 (50%)	–
1 Marvin Schwäbe G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	64 (60%)	–
18 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	83 (73%)	–
38 Youssoupha Niang F	6.7	8'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
7 Luca Waldschmidt F	6.6	32'	–	–	3	13 (7%)	–
3 Dominique Heintz D	6.6	8'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
17 Alessio Castro-Montes M	6.3	19'	–	–	1	11 (8%)	–
11 Florian Kainz M	6.3	19'	–	–	1	17 (15%)	–
32 Kristoffer Lund D	6.2	89'	–	–	–	41 (35%)	2
28 Sebastian Sebulonsen D	6.0	90'	–	–	2	36 (27%)	1
39 Cenk Özkaçar D	5.9	89'	–	–	–	79 (68%)	1
13 Said El Mala M	5.0	90'	–	–	1	15 (14%)	1

1. FC Heidenheim

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
3 Jan Schöppner M	8.7	90'	2	–	3	26 (17%)	3
22 Arijon Ibrahimović M	8.3	76'	1	1	2	25 (16%)	4
40 Frank Feller G	7.6	90'	–	–	–	41 (24%)	–
8 Eren Dinkçi M	7.3	83'	–	–	1	30 (21%)	–
30 Niklas Dorsch M	7.3	90'	–	–	–	33 (32%)	1
19 Jonas Föhrenbach D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	20 (17%)	3
6 Patrick Mainka D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	22 (18%)	2
26 Hennes Behrens D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	23 (19%)	–
9 Stefan Schimmer F	6.9	8'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	1
23 Haktab Omar Traore D	6.7	76'	–	–	–	17 (11%)	4
25 Leonidas Stergiou D	6.6	14'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	1
20 Luca Kerber M	6.6	14'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
17 Mathias Honsak F	6.3	14'	–	–	–	1	–
11 Budu Zivzivadze F	6.3	83'	–	–	–	13 (9%)	1
10 Christian Joe Conteh F	6.3	14'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
18 Marvin Pieringer F	6.2	89'	–	–	3	19 (15%)	1

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Confidence Medium (51%)

At a glance

Our lean

1. FC Köln or draw

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1. FC Köln

WLLDL

1. FC Heidenheim

WDDLW

Last 3 meetings 1. FC Köln · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash, 1. FC Köln hosts 1. FC Heidenheim on May 9, 2026. Köln has historically been strong at home, boasting a solid win rate, particularly against lower-ranked teams. Heidenheim, newly promoted, faces a tough challenge as they struggle with away form, having secured only a few points on the road this season. Key players for Köln will need to exploit Heidenheim's defensive weaknesses, while the visitors will aim to capitalize on counter-attacks. Overall, Köln is favored to claim the three points, underlining their home advantage and experience in the league.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

1. FC Heidenheim goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	17	12	4	1
1	18	13	5	1
2	9	7	2	1
3	3	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ 1. FC Köln goals · most likely 1–0 (17.9%)

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Head to Head: 1. FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim

0 1. FC Köln Wins

2 Draws

1 1. FC Heidenheim Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 Jan 2026	1. FC Heidenheim	2 - 2	1. FC Köln
18 May 2024	1. FC Heidenheim	4 - 1	1. FC Köln
13 Jan 2024	1. FC Köln	1 - 1	1. FC Heidenheim

1. FC Köln — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
23 Jul	A Bergisch Gladbach	W	0 - 8
16 May	A Bayern München	L	5 - 1
10 May	H 1. FC Heidenheim	L	1 - 3
02 May	A Union Berlin	D	2 - 2
25 Apr	H Bayer Leverkusen	L	1 - 2

1. FC Heidenheim — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H FC Ingolstadt 04	W	4 - 1
22 Jul	A Bologna	D	1 - 1
10 Jul	H FC Lugano	D	0 - 0
16 May	H FSV Mainz 05	L	0 - 2
10 May	A 1. FC Köln	W	1 - 3

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

1. FC Heidenheim

Formation: 4-2-2-2 Coach: Frank Schmidt

40 Feller

26 Behrens

19 Fohrenbach

6 Mainka

23 Traore

30 Dorsch

3 Schoppner

22 Ibrahimovic

8 Dinkci

11 Zivzivadze

18 Pieringer

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
40	F. Feller	G
23	O. H. Traore	D
6	P. Mainka	D
19	J. Fohrenbach	D
26	H. Behrens	D
3	J. Schoppner	M
30	N. Dorsch	M
8	E. Dinkci	M
22	A. Ibrahimovic	M
18	M. Pieringer	F
11	B. Zivzivadze	F

Substitutes

41	D. Ramaj	G
9	S. Schimmer	F
4	T. Siersleben	D
25	L. Stergiou	D
17	M. Honsak	F
21	A. Beck	M
10	C. Conteh	F
16	J. Niehues	M
20	L. Kerber	M

1. FC Köln

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Lukas Kwasniok

1 Schwabe

32 Lund

39 Ozkacar

2 Schmied

28 Sebulonsen

18 Johannesson

5 Krauss

13 Mala

16 Kaminski

37 Maina

30 Bulter

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	M. Schwabe	G
28	S. Sebulonsen	D
2	J. Schmied	D
39	C. Ozkacar	D
32	K. Lund	D
5	T. Krauss	M
18	I. Johannesson	M
37	L. Maina	M
16	J. Kaminski	M
13	S. El Mala	M
30	M. Bulter	F

Substitutes

20	R. Zieler	G
11	F. Kainz	M
7	L. Waldschmidt	F
29	J. Thielmann	M
8	D. Huseinbasic	M
3	D. Heintz	D
17	A. Castro-Montes	M
33	R. van den Berg	D
38	Y. Niang	F