Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33

Post on X

SC Freiburg

Away

Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

AI call SC Freiburg or draw

31%

30%

40%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg prediction: Sportiko gives Hamburger SV a 31% chance of winning, SC Freiburg 40% and the draw 30%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Hamburger SV claimed a dramatic 3–2 victory over SC Freiburg in Bundesliga Matchday 33, with the match bursting into life almost immediately. Bakery Jatta opened the scoring in the 14th minute, only for Igor Matanović to level just two minutes later, setting the tone for an eventful afternoon. The sides went into the break level at 1–1.

The second half produced a frantic spell of goals in quick succession. Luka Vušković put Hamburg ahead in the 64th minute, though he was immediately booked, before Fabio Baldé equalised for Freiburg just three minutes later. With the match finely poised, Matanović struck again in the 87th minute to seal all three points for the hosts. The statistics told an interesting story — Freiburg generated an expected goals figure of 1.98 compared to Hamburg's 0.41, and outshot their opponents 14 to 5 in total, yet left empty-handed.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Freiburg win as the most likely outcome at 40%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark as Hamburg held firm despite the statistical pressure.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Bakery Jatta assist: Albert Grønbæk

14' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 16'

Igor Matanović assist: Lukas Kübler

▮ 20'

Lukas Kübler Yellow Card

HT 1–1

⇄ 58'

Johan Manzambi ⇄ Nicolas Hofler

⇄ 59'

Jan-Niklas Beste ⇄ Jordy Makengo

Luka Vušković

64' ⚽ 2–1

Luka Vušković Yellow Card

65' ▮

Otto Stange ⇄ Rayan Philippe

65' ⇄

Bakery Jatta ⇄ Fabio Baldé

65' ⇄

Fabio Baldé assist: Nicolai Remberg

67' ⚽ 3–1

⇄ 68'

Bruno Ogbus ⇄ Philipp Lienhart

⇄ 68'

Lukas Kübler ⇄ Derry Scherhant

⇄ 71'

Matthias Ginter ⇄ Anthony Jung

Albert Sambi Lokonga ⇄ Yussuf Poulsen

80' ⇄

Nicolás Capaldo Yellow Card

86' ▮

▮ 86'

Lucas Höler Yellow Card

⚽ 3–2 87'

Igor Matanović assist: Vincenzo Grifo

Fábio Vieira

90+6' ⇄

Luka Vušković ⇄ Shafiq Nandja

90+6' ⇄

FT 3–2

Hamburger SV

Match Stats

SC Freiburg

47% Ball Possession 53%

1.98 Expected Goals (xG) 0.41

14 Total Shots 5

5 Shots on Goal 3

3 Shots off Goal 2

6 Blocked Shots 0

8 Shots insidebox 2

6 Shots outsidebox 3

2 Corner Kicks 4

1 Offsides 1

15 Fouls 8

2 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 2

429 Total passes 481

352 Passes accurate 393

82% Passes % 82%

-1.76 goals_prevented -1.76

Hamburger SV

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
44 Luka Vušković D	7.9	89'	1	–	2	58 (44%)	–
23 Albert Grønbæk M	7.9	90'	–	1	–	29 (23%)	5
21 Nicolai Remberg M	7.9	90'	–	1	–	60 (54%)	2
45 Fabio Baldé F	7.6	25'	1	–	1	8 (6%)	–
20 Fábio Vieira F	7.3	89'	–	–	1	37 (28%)	1
1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	60 (47%)	–
18 Bakery Jatta M	7.2	65'	1	–	1	23 (19%)	2
15 Yussuf Poulsen F	6.9	10'	–	–	–	7 (3%)	1
17 Warmed Omari D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	54 (48%)	3
6 Albert Sambi Lokonga M	6.6	80'	–	–	–	32 (29%)	1
24 Nicolás Capaldo D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	34 (30%)	3
11 Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer F	6.5	90'	–	–	1	15 (10%)	–
49 Otto Stange F	6.3	65'	–	–	1	7 (7%)	1
14 Rayan Philippe F	6.0	25'	–	–	1	5 (4%)	–
43 Shafiq Nandja D	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–
37 Louis Lemke D	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–

SC Freiburg

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
31 Igor Matanović F	8.3	90'	2	–	3	14 (8%)	–
3 Philipp Lienhart D	7.2	22'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	2
5 Anthony Jung D	7.0	19'	–	–	–	14 (14%)	2
44 Johan Manzambi M	6.9	58'	–	–	–	34 (26%)	3
28 Matthias Ginter D	6.7	71'	–	–	–	44 (42%)	–
17 Lukas Kübler D	6.6	68'	–	1	1	30 (26%)	–
19 Jan-Niklas Beste M	6.5	59'	–	–	–	23 (18%)	3
8 Maximilian Eggestein M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	58 (49%)	–
7 Derry Scherhant F	6.3	22'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
29 Philipp Treu D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	43 (37%)	2
32 Vincenzo Grifo M	6.3	90'	–	1	–	43 (30%)	–
33 Jordy Makengo D	6.2	31'	–	–	–	16 (15%)	–
27 Nicolas Hofler M	6.2	32'	–	–	–	24 (21%)	1
9 Lucas Höler M	6.0	90'	–	–	1	23 (17%)	1
1 Noah Atubolu G	5.9	90'	–	–	–	47 (28%)	–
43 Bruno Ogbus D	5.6	68'	–	–	–	40 (38%)	1

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Confidence Medium (57%)

At a glance

Our lean

SC Freiburg or draw

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Hamburger SV

LDWWL

SC Freiburg

WLDLW

Last 3 meetings Hamburger SV · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash on May 9, 2026, Hamburger SV hosts SC Freiburg. Hamburger SV has shown a strong home advantage this season, with a win rate of over 60% at the Volksparkstadion. They will rely on key players to convert scoring opportunities, as their expected goals (xG) per match stands at around 1.8. SC Freiburg, known for their solid defensive structure, has maintained a lower xG against, averaging 1.1 per match. The outcome may hinge on whether Hamburg can break through Freiburg's defense, while Freiburg will aim to exploit counter-attacking opportunities. Overall, this matchup promises to be tightly contested, with strategic play likely shaping the result.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

SC Freiburg goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	14	8	3	1
1	12	13	8	3	1
2	6	7	4	1
3	2	2	1
4		1
5

↑ Hamburger SV goals · most likely 0–1 (13.7%)

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Head to Head: Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg

1 Hamburger SV Wins

1 Draws

1 SC Freiburg Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 Jan 2026	SC Freiburg	2 - 1	Hamburger SV
21 Apr 2018	Hamburger SV	1 - 0	SC Freiburg
01 Dec 2017	SC Freiburg	0 - 0	Hamburger SV

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Hamburger SV — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Everton	L	1 - 2
16 May	A Bayer Leverkusen	D	1 - 1
10 May	H SC Freiburg	W	3 - 2
02 May	A Eintracht Frankfurt	W	1 - 2
25 Apr	H 1899 Hoffenheim	L	1 - 2

SC Freiburg — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
16 May	H RB Leipzig	W	4 - 1
10 May	A Hamburger SV	L	3 - 2
03 May	H VfL Wolfsburg	D	1 - 1
26 Apr	A Borussia Dortmund	L	4 - 0
19 Apr	H 1. FC Heidenheim	W	2 - 1

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

SC Freiburg

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Julian Schuster

1 Atubolu

29 Treu

43 Ogbus

28 Ginter

17 Kubler

44 Manzambi

8 Eggestein

32 Grifo

9 Holer

19 Beste

31 Matanovic

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	N. Atubolu	G
17	L. Kubler	D
28	M. Ginter	D
43	B. Ogbus	D
29	P. Treu	D
8	M. Eggestein	M
44	J. Manzambi	M
19	J. Beste	M
9	L. Holer	M
32	V. Grifo	M
31	I. Matanovic	F

Substitutes

21	F. Muller	G
27	N. Hofler	M
26	M. Philipp	F
33	J. Makengo	D
30	C. Gunter	D
5	A. Jung	D
3	P. Lienhart	D
7	D. Scherhant	F
22	C. Irie	F

Hamburger SV

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Merlin Polzin

1 Fernandes

17 Omari

44 Vuskovic

24 Capaldo

23 Gronbaek

6 Lokonga

21 Remberg

18 Jatta

11 Konigsdorffer

20 Vieira

49 Stange

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	D. Heuer Fernandes	G
24	N. Capaldo	D
44	L. Vuskovic	D
17	W. Omari	D
18	B. Jatta	M
21	N. Remberg	M
6	A. S. Lokonga	M
23	A. Gronbaek	M
20	F. Vieira	F
11	R. Konigsdorffer	F
49	O. Stange	F

Substitutes

12	S. Tangvik	G
25	J. Torunarigha	D
14	R. Philippe	F
45	F. Balde	F
37	L. Lemke	D
15	Y. Poulsen	F
8	D. Elfadli	M
27	P. Otele	F
43	S. Nandja	D