RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33

Post on X

FC St. Pauli

Away

Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

AI call RB Leipzig to win

72%

20%

Home Win Draw Away Win

RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli prediction: Sportiko gives RB Leipzig a 72% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli 8% and the draw 20%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

RB Leipzig secured a 2–1 home victory over FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga Matchday 33, with the hosts dominant in possession throughout. Leipzig controlled 70% of the ball and generated an expected goals figure of 1.37, underlining their superiority across the 90 minutes. Our pre-match AI model rated an RB Leipzig win most likely at 72%, a call that proved correct.

The breakthrough came right on half-time, as Xaver Schlager's goal sent Leipzig into the break with a 1–0 lead. The hosts doubled their advantage early in the second half through Willi Orbán in the 54th minute, putting them firmly in control despite Christoph Baumgartner picking up a yellow card shortly after the restart.

St. Pauli refused to capitulate entirely, and substitute Abdoulie Ceesay pulled one back in the 86th minute to set up a nervy finale. Both sides made a flurry of late substitutions as the visitors pushed for an equaliser, but Leipzig held firm to claim all three points and extend their advantage in the standings.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Castello Lukeba Yellow Card

19' ▮

Xaver Schlager assist: Christoph Baumgartner

45' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

Christoph Baumgartner Yellow Card

50' ▮

Willi Orbán assist: David Raum

54' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 64'

Lars Ritzka ⇄ Hauke Wahl

⇄ 64'

Louis Oppie

David Raum ⇄ Max Finkgräfe

69' ⇄

Assan Ouédraogo ⇄ Nicolas Seiwald

69' ⇄

⇄ 72'

Andreas Hountondji ⇄ Abdoulie Ceesay

Brajan Gruda ⇄ Antonio Nusa

79' ⇄

⚽ 2–1 86'

Abdoulie Ceesay assist: Jackson Irvine

⇄ 89'

Connor Metcalfe ⇄ Danel Sinani

⇄ 89'

Eric Smith ⇄ Mathias Rasmussen

Ridle Baku ⇄ Benjamin Henrichs

90+1' ⇄

FT 2–1

RB Leipzig

Match Stats

FC St. Pauli

70% Ball Possession 30%

1.37 Expected Goals (xG) 0.79

13 Total Shots 8

5 Shots on Goal 3

6 Shots off Goal 3

2 Blocked Shots 2

8 Shots insidebox 4

5 Shots outsidebox 4

3 Corner Kicks 5

2 Offsides 0

5 Fouls 9

2 Yellow Cards 0

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

732 Total passes 299

646 Passes accurate 211

88% Passes % 71%

-0.19 goals_prevented -0.19

RB Leipzig

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
4 Willi Orbán D	8.9	90'	1	–	1	146 (140%)	1
24 Xaver Schlager M	7.6	90'	1	–	1	65 (57%)	2
22 David Raum D	7.5	69'	–	1	–	63 (60%)	–
10 Brajan Gruda F	7.3	79'	–	–	2	32 (23%)	–
49 Yan Diomande F	7.2	90'	–	–	–	35 (26%)	1
23 Castello Lukeba D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	125 (117%)	3
20 Assan Ouédraogo M	6.7	69'	–	–	1	21 (19%)	–
26 Maarten Vandevoordt G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	35 (27%)	–
17 Ridle Baku D	6.6	89'	–	–	–	82 (69%)	2
14 Christoph Baumgartner M	6.6	90'	–	1	3	62 (49%)	2
7 Antonio Nusa M	6.5	11'	–	–	2	3 (3%)	–
40 Rômulo F	6.3	90'	–	–	1	12 (11%)	2
13 Nicolas Seiwald M	6.2	21'	–	–	–	26 (22%)	–
35 Max Finkgräfe D	6.2	21'	–	–	–	24 (22%)	–
39 Benjamin Henrichs D	—	1'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

FC St. Pauli

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Abdoulie Ceesay F	7.3	18'	1	–	1	5 (5%)	–
22 Nikola Vasilj G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	31 (16%)	–
7 Jackson Irvine M	6.9	90'	–	1	1	21 (14%)	6
5 Hauke Wahl D	6.9	26'	–	–	–	9 (6%)	1
16 Joel Chima Fujita M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	30 (25%)	9
15 Tomoya Ando D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	38 (31%)	2
11 Arkadiusz Pyrka M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	22 (14%)	1
14 Fin Stevens D	6.6	26'	–	–	–	13 (7%)	–
23 Louis Oppie M	6.5	64'	–	–	1	16 (11%)	1
27 Andreas Hountondji F	6.3	72'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	1
21 Lars Ritzka D	6.3	64'	–	–	–	21 (16%)	2
24 Connor Metcalfe M	6.2	89'	–	–	–	21 (14%)	–
8 Eric Smith D	6.2	89'	–	–	1	27 (20%)	1
19 Martijn Kaars F	6.2	90'	–	–	1	22 (16%)	–
20 Mathias Rasmussen M	—	1'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–
10 Danel Sinani F	—	1'	–	–	1	3 (2%)	–

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Our lean

RB Leipzig to win

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RB Leipzig

WLWLW

FC St. Pauli

DLDWL

Last 3 meetings RB Leipzig · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash on May 9, 2026, RB Leipzig will host FC St. Pauli. Leipzig has been a strong contender in the league, showcasing a high-scoring offense that averages 2.5 goals per match this season, supported by their solid defense conceding only 1 goal per match. In contrast, St. Pauli has struggled in the league, with a recent form of just one win in their last five matches, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities. Leipzig's home advantage and overall squad depth suggest they will dominate possession and create more goal-scoring opportunities. Expect Leipzig to capitalize on St. Pauli's weaknesses to secure a decisive victory.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FC St. Pauli goals →

	0	1	2
0	10	4	1
1	18	8	2
2	17	8	2
3	11	5	1
4	5	2	1
5	2	1

↑ RB Leipzig goals · most likely 1–0 (18.4%)

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Head to Head: RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli

1 RB Leipzig Wins

2 Draws

0 FC St. Pauli Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
27 Jan 2026	FC St. Pauli	1 - 1	RB Leipzig
09 Feb 2025	RB Leipzig	2 - 0	FC St. Pauli
22 Sep 2024	FC St. Pauli	0 - 0	RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Verl	W	4 - 0
16 May	A SC Freiburg	L	4 - 1
09 May	H FC St. Pauli	W	2 - 1
02 May	A Bayer Leverkusen	L	4 - 1
24 Apr	H Union Berlin	W	3 - 1

FC St. Pauli — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Deportivo La Coruna	D	2 - 2
24 Jul	A Bournemouth	L	4 - 1
19 Jul	H HNK Gorica	D	1 - 1
30 Jun	A Altona 93	W	2 - 6
16 May	H VfL Wolfsburg	L	1 - 3

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0