VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33

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Bayer Leverkusen

Away

MHPArena, Stuttgart

AI call Difficult VfB Stuttgart win or draw

58%

24%

19%

Home Win Draw Away Win

VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction: Sportiko gives VfB Stuttgart a 58% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen 19% and the draw 24%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

VfB Stuttgart produced a dominant performance against Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga Matchday 33, running out 3–1 winners despite the visitors striking first. Aleix García opened the scoring inside the opening minute, only for Stuttgart to respond swiftly through Ermedin Demirović just four minutes later. The home side took control before the break when Maximilian Mittelstädt converted a penalty — confirmed by VAR — to send Stuttgart into half-time leading 2–1.

Deniz Undav wrapped up the points with a third goal on 58 minutes, effectively ending the contest. The xG figures told a clear story, with Stuttgart generating 3.04 expected goals to Leverkusen's 0.54, while the visitors' 20 total shots yielded little reward against a well-organised Stuttgart defence. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Stuttgart win as the most likely outcome at 58%, and the result duly followed.

Late bookings for Tiago Tomás and Exequiel Palacios in stoppage time added a fractious edge to the closing stages, but Stuttgart's victory was thoroughly deserved and secured with considerable comfort.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 1'

Aleix García assist: Christian Kofane

Ermedin Demirović assist: Nikolas Nartey

5' ⚽ 1–1

Maximilian Mittelstädt Penalty

45' ⚽ 2–1

Ermedin Demirović Penalty confirmed

45+4' 🖵

HT 2–1

Deniz Undav assist: Jamie Leweling

58' ⚽ 3–1

⇄ 65'

Aleix García ⇄ Malik Tillman

⇄ 65'

Montrell Culbreath ⇄ Arthur

Deniz Undav ⇄ Tiago Tomás

68' ⇄

Maximilian Mittelstädt ⇄ Luca Jaquez

78' ⇄

Nikolas Nartey ⇄ Bilal El Khannouss

78' ⇄

⇄ 78'

Christian Kofane ⇄ Ernest Poku

Chris Führich Yellow Card

80' ▮

⇄ 86'

Jarell Quansah ⇄ Eliesse Ben Seghir

Jamie Leweling ⇄ Josha Vagnoman

87' ⇄

Chris Führich ⇄ Lorenz Assignon

87' ⇄

Tiago Tomás Yellow Card

90+7' ▮

▮ 90+7'

Exequiel Palacios Yellow Card

FT 3–1

VfB Stuttgart

Match Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

49% Ball Possession 51%

3.04 Expected Goals (xG) 0.54

20 Total Shots 6

9 Shots on Goal 5

5 Shots off Goal 1

6 Blocked Shots 0

13 Shots insidebox 4

7 Shots outsidebox 2

7 Corner Kicks 6

3 Offsides 0

13 Fouls 8

2 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 5

384 Total passes 401

322 Passes accurate 323

84% Passes % 81%

0.56 goals_prevented 0.56

VfB Stuttgart

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
18 Jamie Leweling M	8.3	87'	–	1	–	30 (26%)	–
6 Angelo Stiller M	8.2	90'	–	–	1	55 (47%)	4
33 Alexander Nübel G	8.0	90'	–	–	–	33 (19%)	–
9 Ermedin Demirović F	7.9	90'	1	–	6	16 (13%)	1
28 Nikolas Nartey F	7.9	78'	–	1	–	21 (17%)	1
7 Maximilian Mittelstädt D	7.7	78'	1	–	2	39 (37%)	1
26 Deniz Undav F	7.3	68'	1	–	4	27 (22%)	–
30 Chema Andrés M	7.0	90'	–	–	–	41 (35%)	1
14 Luca Jaquez D	6.9	12'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
10 Chris Führich M	6.9	87'	–	–	–	34 (28%)	–
24 Jeff Chabot D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	36 (35%)	1
11 Bilal El Khannouss M	6.7	12'	–	–	–	15 (10%)	1
4 Josha Vagnoman D	6.7	10'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
22 Lorenz Assignon D	6.6	10'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
8 Tiago Tomás F	6.3	22'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
3 Ramon Hendriks D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	25 (23%)	1

Bayer Leverkusen

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
24 Aleix García M	7.7	65'	1	–	1	49 (37%)	1
20 Alejandro Grimaldo M	7.2	90'	–	–	1	51 (44%)	2
25 Exequiel Palacios M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	67 (65%)	3
1 M. Flekken G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	30 (11%)	–
35 Christian Kofane F	7.2	78'	–	1	1	11 (9%)	–
13 Arthur D	7.0	25'	–	–	–	20 (16%)	1
10 Malik Tillman M	6.9	25'	–	–	1	9 (8%)	–
30 Ibrahim Maza F	6.9	90'	–	–	1	26 (21%)	2
42 Montrell Culbreath M	6.7	65'	–	–	1	14 (9%)	1
14 Patrik Schick F	6.5	90'	–	–	–	16 (13%)	2
8 Robert Andrich D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	32 (29%)	–
19 Ernest Poku F	6.5	12'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
17 Eliesse Ben Seghir F	6.3	11'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
4 Jarell Quansah D	6.2	86'	–	–	–	25 (18%)	1
12 Edmond Tapsoba D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	45 (38%)	1

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Confidence Medium (56%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult VfB Stuttgart win or draw

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VfB Stuttgart

WWWWD

Bayer Leverkusen

WWWDL

Last 3 meetings VfB Stuttgart · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

VfB Stuttgart hosts Bayer Leverkusen in a crucial Bundesliga clash on May 9, 2026. Stuttgart has shown resilience at home, currently boasting a strong win rate at the Mercedes-Benz Arena. However, Leverkusen, known for their attacking prowess, ranks among the league's top scorers, fueled by a potent forward line. Stuttgart will need to tighten their defense, as they have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match this season. The outcome may hinge on Leverkusen's ability to exploit counter-attacking opportunities against Stuttgart's high defensive line. Expect a dynamic matchup with key implications for European qualification spots.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Bayer Leverkusen goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	6	3	1
1	13	11	5	1
2	11	10	4	1
3	7	6	2	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ VfB Stuttgart goals · most likely 1–0 (12.9%)

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Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen

1 VfB Stuttgart Wins

1 Draws

1 Bayer Leverkusen Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 Jan 2026	Bayer Leverkusen	1 - 4	VfB Stuttgart
16 Mar 2025	VfB Stuttgart	3 - 4	Bayer Leverkusen
01 Nov 2024	Bayer Leverkusen	0 - 0	VfB Stuttgart

See all 10 meetings — Premium

VfB Stuttgart — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Paris FC	W	2 - 1
29 Jul	A Kickers Offenbach	W	1 - 8
25 Jul	A Hollenbach	W	0 - 5
19 Jul	A Balingen	W	0 - 7
16 May	A Eintracht Frankfurt	D	2 - 2

Bayer Leverkusen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Rot-Weiß Essen	W	3 - 0
29 Jul	H Genk	W	4 - 0
25 Jul	A Kickers Offenbach	W	1 - 3
16 May	H Hamburger SV	D	1 - 1
09 May	A VfB Stuttgart	L	3 - 1

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0