FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33

Post on X

Union Berlin

Away

MEWA ARENA, Mainz

AI call Difficult FSV Mainz 05 win or draw

54%

25%

21%

Home Win Draw Away Win

FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin prediction: Sportiko gives FSV Mainz 05 a 54% chance of winning, Union Berlin 21% and the draw 25%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Union Berlin claimed a convincing 3–1 victory at Mainz in Bundesliga matchday 33, with the away side looking the more threatening throughout. Andrej Ilić broke the deadlock on 38 minutes to send Union into half-time ahead, and Sheraldo Becker extended the lead almost immediately after the restart on 48 minutes. Mainz's hopes of a comeback were dealt a further blow when a Phillip Tietz goal was ruled out by VAR on 59 minutes.

Mainz, who held 53% possession but managed only three shots on target compared to Union's nine, struggled to convert their territorial advantage into meaningful chances — a gap reflected in the expected goals figures of 1.57 to 2.68 in Union's favour. Oliver Burke wrapped up the points on 88 minutes, with Josip Juranović adding a fourth deep into stoppage time to complete a comfortable win.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Mainz win as the most likely outcome at 54%, a call that proved well wide of the mark as Union Berlin dominated when it mattered most.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Anthony Caci Yellow Card

7' ▮

Danny da Costa ⇄ Kacper Potulski

16' ⇄

⚽ 0–1 38'

Andrej Ilić assist: Aljoscha Kemlein

HT 0–1

Sheraldo Becker assist: Paul Nebel

48' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 59'

Livan Burcu ⇄ Woo-Yeong Jeong

Phillip Tietz Goal cancelled

59' 🖵

⇄ 60'

Ilyas Ansah ⇄ András Schäfer

⇄ 60'

Tom Rothe ⇄ Derrick Köhn

Paul Nebel ⇄ Jae-sung Lee

70' ⇄

Anthony Caci ⇄ Nikolas Veratschnig

70' ⇄

Jae-sung Lee Yellow Card

75' ▮

▮ 80'

Derrick Köhn Yellow Card

Sheraldo Becker ⇄ Armindo Sieb

81' ⇄

Phillip Tietz ⇄ Nelson Weiper

81' ⇄

⇄ 81'

Christopher Trimmel ⇄ Josip Juranović

⚽ 1–2 88'

Oliver Burke assist: Andrej Ilić

⇄ 88'

Oliver Burke ⇄ Tim Skarke

⚽ 1–3 90'

Josip Juranović assist: Tim Skarke

FT 1–3

FSV Mainz 05

Match Stats

Union Berlin

53% Ball Possession 47%

1.57 Expected Goals (xG) 2.68

14 Total Shots 16

3 Shots on Goal 9

7 Shots off Goal 6

4 Blocked Shots 1

10 Shots insidebox 12

4 Shots outsidebox 4

7 Corner Kicks 8

2 Offsides 0

11 Fouls 10

2 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

6 Goalkeeper Saves 2

462 Total passes 411

388 Passes accurate 337

84% Passes % 82%

0.45 goals_prevented 0.45

FSV Mainz 05

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Sheraldo Becker F	8.3	81'	1	–	2	25 (20%)	–
10 Nadiem Amiri M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	45 (37%)	–
2 Phillipp Mwene M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	35 (32%)	1
6 Kaishu Sano M	6.9	90'	–	–	2	43 (36%)	1
20 Phillip Tietz F	6.9	81'	–	–	–	21 (16%)	–
19 Anthony Caci M	6.9	70'	–	–	1	42 (36%)	1
27 Robin Zentner G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	–
11 Armindo Sieb F	6.7	9'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
21 Danny da Costa D	6.6	16'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
8 Paul Nebel M	6.6	70'	–	1	1	37 (32%)	3
7 Jae-sung Lee M	6.2	20'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	–
4 Stefan Posch D	6.2	90'	–	–	2	52 (44%)	–
44 Nelson Weiper F	6.2	9'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	–
22 Nikolas Veratschnig D	6.2	20'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	2
31 Dominik Kohr D	5.9	90'	–	–	–	58 (47%)	–
48 Kacper Potulski D	5.7	74'	–	–	2	42 (37%)	1

Union Berlin

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
28 Christopher Trimmel D	8.9	81'	–	–	–	38 (30%)	3
7 Oliver Burke M	7.3	88'	1	–	1	25 (19%)	2
6 Aljoscha Kemlein M	7.3	90'	–	1	1	60 (51%)	1
18 Josip Juranović D	7.3	9'	1	–	1	8 (6%)	–
5 Danilho Doekhi D	7.2	90'	–	–	3	56 (49%)	1
23 Andrej Ilić F	7.2	90'	1	1	4	10 (5%)	–
10 Ilyas Ansah M	7.0	60'	–	–	1	13 (10%)	1
4 Diogo Leite D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	55 (47%)	2
39 Derrick Köhn D	6.9	30'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	–
13 András Schäfer M	6.7	30'	–	–	1	11 (10%)	–
25 Carl Klaus G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	27 (17%)	–
11 Woo-Yeong Jeong M	6.5	31'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	–
15 Tom Rothe D	6.5	60'	–	–	1	23 (20%)	1
9 Livan Burcu M	6.3	59'	–	–	1	19 (16%)	–
8 Rani Khedira M	6.2	90'	–	–	–	35 (30%)	1
21 Tim Skarke M	—	2'	–	1	1	2 (2%)	–

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Confidence Medium (60%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult FSV Mainz 05 win or draw

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FSV Mainz 05

DWWWW

Union Berlin

DLDLD

Last 3 meetings FSV Mainz 05 · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash on May 9, 2026, FSV Mainz 05 will host Union Berlin at the MEWA Arena. Mainz has shown a solid home record, gaining an average of 1.8 points per game at home this season, while Union Berlin has struggled on the road, with only 1.2 points per away match. Key players to watch include Mainz's attacking midfielder, who has contributed significantly to their goal tally, and Union's defensive stalwart, who has been crucial in away fixtures. The match could hinge on Mainz's ability to penetrate Union's organized defense, making early goals vital for both teams' confidence and tactical approach.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Union Berlin goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	8	7	3	1
1	13	12	5	2
2	10	10	5	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ FSV Mainz 05 goals · most likely 1–0 (12.5%)

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Head to Head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin

0 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

2 Draws

1 Union Berlin Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 Jan 2026	Union Berlin	2 - 2	FSV Mainz 05
19 Jan 2025	Union Berlin	2 - 1	FSV Mainz 05
24 Aug 2024	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 1	Union Berlin

See all 10 meetings — Premium

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Udinese	D	3 - 3
31 Jul	H Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	W	1 - 0
25 Jul	H Holstein Kiel	W	3 - 0
17 Jul	H 1. FC Kaiserslautern	W	4 - 1
16 May	A 1. FC Heidenheim	W	0 - 2

Union Berlin — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	H Cagliari	D	2 - 2
01 Aug	A Dynamo Dresden	L	2 - 1
17 Jul	A FC Winterthur	D	0 - 0
12 Jul	A FC Carl Zeiss Jena	L	1 - 0
09 Jul	A Chemnitzer FC	D	1 - 1

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0