Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 32

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Borussia Dortmund

Away

BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach

AI call Difficult Borussia Dortmund win or draw

19%

22%

60%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: Sportiko gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 19% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund 60% and the draw 22%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Borussia Mönchengladbach claimed all three points against Borussia Dortmund with a dramatic late winner in Bundesliga Matchday 32, despite a goalless first half that offered little indication of what was to come. The hosts dominated the underlying numbers throughout, finishing with an expected goals figure of 2.20 compared to Dortmund's 0.49, and outshot their visitors 12 to 6 over the course of the contest.

The decisive moment arrived in the 88th minute when Haris Tabaković broke the deadlock with a late goal, confirmed by VAR at the 90th minute. In a chaotic finish, Tabaković was booked just moments after his goal was ratified before being substituted in stoppage time. Dortmund's afternoon had been disrupted by a flurry of changes and bookings, with Nico Schlotterbeck picking up a yellow card in the 56th minute and the visitors managing just a single shot on target across the full 90.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Dortmund win as the most likely outcome at 60%, a call that proved wide of the mark as Gladbach's late pressure ultimately told.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0

Kevin Stöger Yellow Card

54' ▮

▮ 56'

Nico Schlotterbeck Yellow Card

⇄ 61'

Maximilian Beier ⇄ Daniel Svensson

Wael Mohya ⇄ Hugo Bolin

65' ⇄

Fabio Chiarodia ⇄ Kevin Diks

70' ⇄

Kevin Stöger ⇄ Giovanni Reyna

70' ⇄

⇄ 76'

Serhou Guirassy ⇄ Fábio Silva

⇄ 76'

Jobe Bellingham ⇄ Salih Özcan

⇄ 84'

Julian Brandt ⇄ Carney Chukwuemeka

⇄ 84'

Julian Ryerson ⇄ Yan Couto

Nico Elvedi Yellow Card

87' ▮

Haris Tabaković assist: Rocco Reitz

88' ⚽ 1–0

Haris Tabaković Goal confirmed

90' 🖵

Haris Tabaković Yellow Card

90+1' ▮

Haris Tabaković ⇄ S. Machino

90+1' ⇄

Rocco Reitz ⇄ Robin Hack

90+1' ⇄

FT 1–0

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Match Stats

Borussia Dortmund

51% Ball Possession 49%

2.20 Expected Goals (xG) 0.49

12 Total Shots 6

4 Shots on Goal 1

5 Shots off Goal 5

3 Blocked Shots 0

11 Shots insidebox 5

1 Shots outsidebox 1

1 Corner Kicks 1

1 Offsides 0

14 Fouls 17

3 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 3

502 Total passes 490

420 Passes accurate 414

84% Passes % 84%

0.50 goals_prevented 0.50

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
27 Rocco Reitz M	7.9	89'	–	1	1	46 (37%)	4
9 Franck Honorat D	7.9	90'	–	–	–	31 (23%)	2
16 Philipp Sander D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	67 (59%)	1
7 Kevin Stöger M	7.3	70'	–	–	1	62 (58%)	2
29 Joe Scally D	7.2	90'	–	–	1	39 (30%)	–
15 Haris Tabaković F	6.9	89'	1	–	3	17 (10%)	1
30 Nico Elvedi D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	53 (48%)	2
38 Hugo Bolin M	6.9	25'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
2 Fabio Chiarodia D	6.9	70'	–	–	–	48 (42%)	1
13 Giovanni Reyna M	6.7	20'	–	–	–	13 (11%)	–
6 Yannik Engelhardt M	6.7	90'	–	–	3	45 (42%)	1
33 Moritz Nicolas G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	47 (32%)	–
4 Kevin Diks D	6.6	20'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
36 Wael Mohya M	6.3	65'	–	–	–	16 (14%)	1
18 S. Machino F	—	1'	–	–	–	1	–
25 Robin Hack M	—	1'	–	–	–	–	1

Borussia Dortmund

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Gregor Kobel G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	33 (20%)	–
4 Nico Schlotterbeck D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	68 (59%)	2
49 Luca Reggiani D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	60 (52%)	3
7 Jobe Bellingham M	7.2	76'	–	–	–	53 (50%)	–
20 Marcel Sabitzer M	7.0	90'	–	–	1	51 (43%)	2
14 Maximilian Beier M	6.6	61'	–	–	–	26 (20%)	–
26 Julian Ryerson M	6.6	84'	–	–	–	29 (26%)	2
40 Samuele Inacio F	6.6	90'	–	–	2	29 (23%)	2
6 Salih Özcan M	6.5	14'	–	–	–	11 (8%)	–
17 Carney Chukwuemeka M	6.3	12'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
9 Serhou Guirassy F	6.3	76'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	–
3 Waldemar Anton D	6.2	90'	–	–	1	47 (42%)	–
24 Daniel Svensson D	6.2	29'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
21 Fábio Silva F	6.2	14'	–	–	1	9 (7%)	–
10 Julian Brandt F	6.2	84'	–	–	1	40 (35%)	–
2 Yan Couto D	6.2	12'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–

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Confidence Medium (61%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Borussia Dortmund win or draw

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Borussia Mönchengladbach

WWWLW

Borussia Dortmund

WLWWL

Last 3 meetings Borussia Mönchengladbach · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash on May 2, 2026, Borussia Mönchengladbach will host Borussia Dortmund in a highly anticipated match. Historically, Dortmund has been dominant in this fixture, winning 15 of the last 20 encounters. As of this season, Dortmund boasts a potent attack, averaging 2.5 goals per game, while Mönchengladbach has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. The home advantage could play a crucial role for Gladbach, but they will need to contain Dortmund's offensive prowess, particularly their leading scorer, who has netted over 20 goals this season. Expect a fast-paced game with potential playoff implications for both teams.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Borussia Dortmund goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	10	10	7	3	1
1	5	10	10	7	3	1
2	3	5	5	3	2	1
3	1	2	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Borussia Mönchengladbach goals · most likely 1–1 (10.1%)

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Head to Head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund

0 Borussia Mönchengladbach Wins

1 Draws

2 Borussia Dortmund Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 Dec 2025	Borussia Dortmund	2 - 0	Borussia Mönchengladbach
20 Apr 2025	Borussia Dortmund	3 - 2	Borussia Mönchengladbach
07 Dec 2024	Borussia Mönchengladbach	1 - 1	Borussia Dortmund

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Borussia Mönchengladbach — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Hansa Rostock	W	1 - 3
25 Jul	A Rot-Weiß Essen	W	1 - 2
16 May	H 1899 Hoffenheim	W	4 - 0
09 May	A FC Augsburg	L	3 - 1
03 May	H Borussia Dortmund	W	1 - 0

Borussia Dortmund — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A FC Tokyo	W	0 - 1
25 Jul	A Fortuna Düsseldorf	L	2 - 1
16 May	A Werder Bremen	W	0 - 2
08 May	H Eintracht Frankfurt	W	3 - 2
03 May	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	L	1 - 0

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0