1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31

Post on X

Bayer Leverkusen

Away

AI call Bayer Leverkusen or draw

22%

29%

49%

Home Win Draw Away Win

1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction: Sportiko gives 1. FC Köln a 22% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen 49% and the draw 29%. Last updated 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Bayer Leverkusen claimed a hard-fought 2–1 derby victory at 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga Matchday 31, with Patrik Schick proving the decisive figure. The Czech striker opened the scoring from the penalty spot just before half-time, giving the visitors a deserved lead that their dominant display warranted. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Leverkusen win as the most likely outcome at 49%, a call that proved correct.

Schick doubled the advantage seven minutes after the restart with a second goal, and the statistics underlined Leverkusen's superiority throughout — they registered 25 total shots and an expected goals figure of 3.04 compared to Köln's 1.33. The visitors were largely in control despite Edmond Tapsoba picking up an early yellow card.

Köln gave themselves a lifeline when substitute Luca Waldschmidt pulled one back on 77 minutes, and the hosts pushed for an equaliser in the closing stages, but Leverkusen held firm. The result was a comfortable away win for the reigning champions, who outclassed their local rivals across all key metrics.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 10'

Edmond Tapsoba Yellow Card

⚽ 0–1 43'

Patrik Schick Penalty

Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Yellow Card

45' ▮

HT 0–1

⚽ 0–2 52'

Patrik Schick assist: Nathan Tella

Marius Bülter ⇄ Jan Thielmann

62' ⇄

Linton Maina ⇄ Alessio Castro-Montes

62' ⇄

⇄ 62'

Ibrahim Maza ⇄ Malik Tillman

Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson ⇄ Luca Waldschmidt

72' ⇄

Kristoffer Lund ⇄ Felipe Chávez

72' ⇄

⇄ 72'

Aleix García ⇄ Ezequiel Fernández

⇄ 72'

Nathan Tella ⇄ Eliesse Ben Seghir

⇄ 72'

Montrell Culbreath

Luca Waldschmidt assist: Said El Mala

77' ⚽ 1–2

Eric Martel

85' ⇄

⇄ 86'

Jarell Quansah ⇄ Loïc Badé

▮ 90+5'

Janis Blaswich Yellow Card

FT 1–2

1. FC Köln

Match Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

45% Ball Possession 55%

3.04 Expected Goals (xG) 1.33

25 Total Shots 8

10 Shots on Goal 3

8 Shots off Goal 3

7 Blocked Shots 2

19 Shots insidebox 5

6 Shots outsidebox 3

2 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 2

11 Fouls 5

1 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 8

459 Total passes 574

390 Passes accurate 499

85% Passes % 87%

1.11 goals_prevented 1.11

1. FC Köln

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Luca Waldschmidt F	7.7	18'	1	–	3	14 (11%)	–
13 Said El Mala F	7.6	90'	–	1	8	8 (5%)	2
29 Jan Thielmann M	7.3	31'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	–
39 Cenk Özkaçar D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	71 (62%)	1
37 Linton Maina M	6.9	59'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	1
17 Alessio Castro-Montes M	6.9	31'	–	–	1	15 (13%)	2
27 Felipe Chávez M	6.9	18'	–	–	1	17 (16%)	–
1 Marvin Schwäbe G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	59 (48%)	–
16 Jakub Kamiński M	6.6	90'	–	–	3	44 (37%)	1
6 Eric Martel M	6.6	85'	–	–	1	42 (37%)	1
30 Marius Bülter M	6.5	59'	–	–	–	13 (9%)	1
18 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson M	6.3	72'	–	–	–	30 (26%)	–
22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	49 (47%)	2
38 Youssoupha Niang F	6.3	12'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
28 Sebastian Sebulonsen D	6.2	90'	–	–	1	38 (30%)	1
32 Kristoffer Lund D	6.2	72'	–	–	–	16 (12%)	1

Bayer Leverkusen

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
28 Janis Blaswich G	8.7	90'	–	–	–	23 (14%)	–
14 Patrik Schick F	7.9	90'	2	–	3	17 (12%)	–
12 Edmond Tapsoba D	7.9	90'	–	–	–	76 (71%)	2
23 Nathan Tella F	7.3	72'	–	1	–	25 (22%)	–
24 Aleix García M	7.2	72'	–	–	–	78 (75%)	1
5 Loïc Badé D	7.0	12'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
42 Montrell Culbreath M	7.0	72'	–	–	–	25 (19%)	2
20 Alejandro Grimaldo M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	65 (58%)	2
6 Ezequiel Fernández M	6.9	18'	–	–	–	16 (16%)	2
17 Eliesse Ben Seghir F	6.6	18'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
30 Ibrahim Maza F	6.5	61'	–	–	–	18 (12%)	2
8 Robert Andrich D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	64 (55%)	5
10 Malik Tillman M	6.3	29'	–	–	–	16 (12%)	1
25 Exequiel Palacios M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	80 (69%)	1
13 Arthur D	6.2	18'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–
4 Jarell Quansah D	5.9	85'	–	–	1	50 (45%)	1

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Our lean

Bayer Leverkusen or draw

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1. FC Köln

LDLWW

Bayer Leverkusen

WWDWL

Last 3 meetings 1. FC Köln · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

1. FC Köln faces Bayer Leverkusen in a key Bundesliga matchup on April 25, 2026. Köln has struggled to find consistency this season, currently sitting near the relegation zone, while Leverkusen is vying for a Champions League spot, demonstrating strong attacking prowess with an average of 2.1 goals per game. Köln's defense has been porous, conceding over 1.8 goals per match, which could be exploited by Leverkusen's potent offense led by their star forward. The home advantage may play a role, but Leverkusen's superior form and squad depth suggest they will be favored to secure the three points. Expect a high-paced game with potential for multiple goals.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Bayer Leverkusen goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13	17	11	5	1
1	10	13	8	3	1
2	4	5	3	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ 1. FC Köln goals · most likely 0–1 (16.9%)

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Players in form

1. FC Köln

No scorer data.

Bayer Leverkusen

P. Schick 4 gls

Christian Kofane 2 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen

0 1. FC Köln Wins

0 Draws

3 Bayer Leverkusen Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
13 Dec 2025	Bayer Leverkusen	2 - 0	1. FC Köln
03 Mar 2024	1. FC Köln	0 - 2	Bayer Leverkusen
08 Oct 2023	Bayer Leverkusen	3 - 0	1. FC Köln

See all 10 meetings — Premium

1. FC Köln — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Hamburger SV	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	H Werder Bremen	D	1 - 1
04 Sep	A VfB Stuttgart	L	4 - 1
29 Aug	H 1899 Hoffenheim	W	3 - 2
24 Aug	A Würzburger Kickers	W	1 - 2

Bayer Leverkusen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H RB Leipzig	W	2 - 0
16 Sep	H Celje	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	A FC Augsburg	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	H Union Berlin	W	4 - 0
29 Aug	A SV Elversberg	L	3 - 2

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0