1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction
1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction: Sportiko gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 39% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 36% and the draw 25%. Last updated 25 Jul 2026, 05:45.
Match Report
Mainz 05 claimed a hard-fought 1–2 victory at Hoffenheim in Bundesliga Matchday 28, with the decisive goal arriving late in the second half. The opening exchanges were lively, with both sides finding the net before the break — goals in the 13th and 23rd minutes producing a 1–1 scoreline at half-time, though the match was punctuated by early disciplinary action, including a yellow card inside seven minutes.
The second half turned increasingly fractious. Ozan Kabak was cautioned just before the interval, while Vladimír Coufal picked up a booking shortly after the restart before being substituted off at the hour mark. Mainz continued to dominate possession — finishing with 60% — and created the greater volume of chances, registering 16 total shots to Hoffenheim's nine. The visitors converted that pressure into a winner in the 79th minute, though goalkeeper Oliver Baumann was also shown a yellow card in the aftermath.
Despite Hoffenheim generating an expected goals figure of 2.19 — higher than Mainz's 1.16 — they could not convert their opportunities. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Hoffenheim win most likely at 39%, a call that ultimately proved unsettled by Mainz's clinical finishing.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
1899 Hoffenheim
Match Stats
1899 Hoffenheim
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Fisnik Asllani M | 7.9 | 61' | 1 | – | 2 | 26 (16%) | – |
| 1 Oliver Baumann G | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (21%) | – |
| 22 Alexander Prass M | 7.3 | 84' | – | – | 1 | 30 (20%) | 2 |
| 34 Vladimír Coufal D | 7.0 | 61' | – | – | 1 | 19 (10%) | 1 |
| 6 Grischa Prömel M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 50 (39%) | 1 |
| 5 Ozan Kabak D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 53 (40%) | 1 |
| 18 Wouter Burger M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 60 (52%) | 3 |
| 7 Leon Avdullahu M | 6.9 | 29' | – | – | – | 33 (32%) | – |
| 29 Bazoumana Touré F | 6.7 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 29 (24%) | – |
| 27 Andrej Kramarić F | 6.7 | 29' | – | – | – | 17 (15%) | – |
| 21 Albian Hajdari D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 62 (54%) | 3 |
| 13 Bernardo D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 54 (40%) | 2 |
| 19 Tim Lemperle F | 6.6 | 87' | – | – | 2 | 32 (25%) | 2 |
| 33 Max Moerstedt F | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 9 Ihlas Bebou F | 6.2 | 11' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 Daniel Batz G | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 54 (22%) | – |
| 48 Kacper Potulski D | 7.7 | 53' | – | – | – | 25 (24%) | – |
| 6 Kaishu Sano M | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 33 (30%) | 4 |
| 20 Phillip Tietz F | 7.3 | 90' | 2 | – | 4 | 13 (8%) | – |
| 2 Phillipp Mwene M | 7.2 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 22 (17%) | 1 |
| 22 Nikolas Veratschnig D | 7.0 | 45' | – | – | – | 12 (9%) | 2 |
| 8 Paul Nebel M | 6.9 | 87' | – | – | 1 | 14 (10%) | 2 |
| 30 Silvan Widmer M | 6.7 | 45' | – | – | – | 8 (6%) | 1 |
| 4 Stefan Posch D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 26 (21%) | 3 |
| 21 Danny da Costa D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (28%) | – |
| 11 Armindo Sieb F | 6.5 | 15' | – | – | – | 6 (3%) | – |
| 15 Lennard Maloney M | 6.5 | 8' | – | – | – | 4 | – |
| 23 Sheraldo Becker F | 6.3 | 75' | – | – | 1 | 11 (7%) | – |
| 24 Sota Kawasaki M | 6.3 | 15' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 7 Jae-sung Lee M | 6.2 | 75' | – | – | 1 | 26 (21%) | 1 |
| 31 Dominik Kohr D | 6.2 | 37' | – | – | – | 14 (10%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
A. Daghim
2 gls
P. Tietz
4 gls
S. Becker
2 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Nov 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 | 1 - 1 | 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 12 Apr 2025 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 - 0 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 01 Dec 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2 - 0 | 1899 Hoffenheim |
1899 Hoffenheim — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A SC Paderborn 07 | L | 3 - 1 |
| 17 Sep | A OFI | L | 2 - 0 |
| 12 Sep | H VfB Stuttgart | W | 2 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | H Borussia Dortmund | L | 2 - 3 |
| 29 Aug | A 1. FC Köln | L | 3 - 2 |
FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 - 4 |
| 12 Sep | H Eintracht Frankfurt | L | 1 - 3 |
| 06 Sep | A Hamburger SV | W | 0 - 5 |
| 29 Aug | H SC Paderborn 07 | D | 0 - 0 |
| 23 Aug | A Krieschow | W | 0 - 9 |
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |
Bayern München
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 |
SC Freiburg
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 |
FC Augsburg
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |
FSV Mainz 05
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |
SV Elversberg
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |
Werder Bremen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |
RB Leipzig
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 |
FC Schalke 04
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 |
1. FC Köln
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 |
Hamburger SV
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 |
Union Berlin
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 |
FSV Mainz 05
Formation: 3-5-2
Coach: U. Fischer
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | D. Batz | G |
| 21 | D. da Costa | D |
| 4 | S. Posch | D |
| 31 | D. Kohr | D |
| 30 | S. Widmer | M |
| 8 | P. Nebel | M |
| 6 | K. Sano | M |
| 7 | Lee Jae-Sung | M |
| 2 | P. Mwene | M |
| 23 | S. Becker | F |
| 20 | P. Tietz | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | L. Riess | G |
| 15 | L. Maloney | M |
| 11 | A. Sieb | F |
| 14 | W. Boving | F |
| 24 | S. Kawasaki | M |
| 5 | M. Leitsch | D |
| 22 | N. Veratschnig | D |
| 44 | N. Weiper | F |
| 48 | K. Potulski | D |
1899 Hoffenheim
Formation: 4-1-3-2
Coach: C. Ilzer
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | O. Baumann | G |
| 34 | V. Coufal | D |
| 5 | O. Kabak | D |
| 21 | A. Hajdari | D |
| 13 | Bernardo | D |
| 18 | W. Burger | M |
| 6 | G. Promel | M |
| 11 | F. Asllani | M |
| 22 | A. Prass | M |
| 19 | T. Lemperle | F |
| 29 | B. Toure | F |
Substitutes
| 37 | L. Philipp | G |
| 27 | A. Kramaric | F |
| 9 | I. Bebou | F |
| 2 | R. Hranac | D |
| 7 | L. Avdullahu | M |
| 10 | M. Damar | M |
| 33 | M. Moerstedt | F |
| 25 | K. Akpoguma | D |
| 20 | C. Campbell | F |