Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille Prediction
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction: Sportiko gives Bayer Leverkusen a 72% chance of winning, Marseille 10% and the draw 17%. Last updated 5 Nov 2026, 21:57.
Premium picks
Premium- Under 4.5 72%
Match Report
Bayer Leverkusen suffered a surprise home defeat to Marseille in the UEFA Europa League league stage, with the French side claiming a narrow 1–0 victory thanks to a late winner. The first half was uneventful in terms of goals, though both sides picked up yellow cards, with Miguel Gutiérrez cautioned in the sixth minute and Igor Paixão booked just before the break.
Marseille dominated possession with 58% of the ball and created the better opportunities from set pieces, earning six corner kicks to Leverkusen's two. The decisive moment arrived in the 77th minute when Amine Gouiri broke the deadlock with a composed finish, punishing the hosts just as the game appeared to be drifting towards a stalemate. Gouiri was withdrawn seven minutes later, his job done. A late yellow card for Tochukwu Nnadi added further frustration for Leverkusen in stoppage time.
Despite the xG figures finishing almost level at 0.94 to 0.91, Marseille took their chance when it mattered. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Leverkusen win as most likely at 72%, a call the visitors emphatically overturned on the night.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Bayer Leverkusen
Match Stats
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aleix García M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 91 (85%) | 2 |
| 4 Jarell Quansah D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 74 (68%) | 2 |
| 2 Facundo Medina D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 117 (110%) | 1 |
| 8 Robert Andrich M | 6.7 | 68' | – | – | 1 | 47 (44%) | 3 |
| 6 Ezequiel Fernández M | 6.7 | 22' | – | – | – | 28 (27%) | – |
| 12 Edmond Tapsoba D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 91 (87%) | 1 |
| 14 Patrik Schick F | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 16 (9%) | 1 |
| 17 Lucas Vázquez M | 6.4 | 68' | – | – | – | 35 (31%) | – |
| 10 Malik Tillman M | 6.3 | 11' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 3 Miguel Gutiérrez D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 60 (56%) | – |
| 42 Montrell Culbreath M | 6.2 | 11' | – | – | – | 12 (7%) | – |
| 1 M. Flekken G | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (22%) | – |
| 9 Afonso Moreira F | 6.1 | 22' | – | – | – | 11 (9%) | – |
| 30 Ibrahim Maza M | 6.0 | 79' | – | – | 1 | 29 (20%) | 5 |
| 7 Jonas Hofmann M | 5.9 | 79' | – | – | – | 50 (43%) | – |
Marseille
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Amine Gouiri F | 7.8 | 84' | 1 | – | 3 | 19 (17%) | – |
| 4 Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 72 (69%) | 1 |
| 23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 80 (77%) | 1 |
| 21 Nayef Aguerd D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 71 (68%) | 2 |
| 22 Tim Weah M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 30 (26%) | 1 |
| 12 Jeffrey de Lange G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 38 (23%) | – |
| 8 Himad Abdelli M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 39 (37%) | 1 |
| 19 Geoffrey Kondogbia M | 6.7 | 71' | – | – | 1 | 49 (44%) | 3 |
| 74 K. Bezahaf D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 49 (41%) | 3 |
| 11 Neal Maupay F | 6.5 | 6' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 43 T. Mmadi F | 6.5 | 19' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | 1 |
| 6 Tochukwu Nnadi M | 6.4 | 19' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | 2 |
| 25 Ulisses Garcia D | 6.3 | 84' | – | – | – | 37 (32%) | 1 |
| 46 E. Mbondo D | 6.3 | 6' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 14 Igor Paixão M | 6.2 | 71' | – | – | 1 | 23 (15%) | 1 |
Unlock the AI's full read on Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
- All 70+ probability markets
- AI Deep-Dive match report
- Pick types you choose
At a glance
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowLive insights
Min 82: Marseille leads 0-1. Win probability: 79.9%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 20.1%.
Late goal makes it 0-1! Marseille win probability: 72.5%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 39.2%.
Min 75: Still level at 0-0. Draw looking likely at 58.5%. Late goal chance: 46.2%.
Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 83.5%. Over 1.5 remaining: 57.6%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowMost likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowYou're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.
Unlock all modelsUnlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowHead to Head: Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
No head-to-head history found between these teams.
Bayer Leverkusen — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | H Marseille | L | 0 - 1 |
| 31 Oct | H VfB Stuttgart | L | 2 - 4 |
| 28 Oct | H 1. FC Nürnberg | W | 5 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | A 1899 Hoffenheim | L | 3 - 0 |
| 22 Oct | A OFI | W | 0 - 2 |
Marseille — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | A Bayer Leverkusen | W | 0 - 1 |
| 01 Nov | H Toulouse | W | 2 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | H Le Havre | W | 4 - 3 |
| 22 Oct | A Sturm Graz | L | 1 - 0 |
| 18 Oct | A Angers | W | 2 - 5 |
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benfica
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |
Bournemouth
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |
Ferencvarosi TC
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |
Union St. Gilloise
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |
Juventus
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |
Olympiakos Piraeus
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |
Beşiktaş
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |
Dinamo Zagreb
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |
Levski Sofia
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |
Sunderland
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |
NEC Nijmegen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |
Lyon
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |
Anderlecht
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |
OFI
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |
Rennes
|
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |
Omonia Nicosia
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |
Torreense
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |
Real Sociedad
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |
Crystal Palace
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |
Sparta Praha
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |
Sturm Graz
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |
Celje
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |
Red Bull Salzburg
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |
Celta Vigo
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |
AC Milan
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |
Jagiellonia
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |
Plzen
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |
Marseille
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |
Celtic
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |
Hapoel Beer Sheva
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |
Lillestrom
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |
Lech Poznan
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |
Ararat-Armenia
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 0 |
Marseille
Formation: 4-1-4-1
Coach: Bruno Genesio
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | J. de Lange | G |
| 74 | K. Bezahaf | D |
| 4 | C. Egan-Riley | D |
| 21 | N. Aguerd | D |
| 25 | U. Garcia | D |
| 23 | P. Højbjerg | M |
| 22 | T. Weah | M |
| 19 | G. Kondogbia | M |
| 8 | H. Abdelli | M |
| 14 | Igor Paixão | M |
| 9 | A. Gouiri | F |
Substitutes
| 42 | Nouhoum Kamissoko | M |
| 11 | N. Maupay | F |
| 18 | B. Meité | D |
| 43 | T. Mmadi | F |
| 6 | T. Nnadi | M |
| 44 | Antoine Valero | F |
| 7 | A. Gomes | M |
| 48 | K. Abdallah | F |
| 92 | T. Vermot | G |
| 41 | Ibrahim Gomis | G |
| 46 | E. Mbondo | D |
Bayer Leverkusen
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Carles Martínez
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. Flekken | G |
| 4 | J. Quansah | D |
| 12 | E. Tapsoba | D |
| 2 | F. Medina | D |
| 3 | Miguel Gutiérrez | D |
| 24 | Aleix García | M |
| 8 | R. Andrich | M |
| 17 | Lucas Vázquez | M |
| 30 | I. Maza | M |
| 7 | J. Hofmann | M |
| 14 | P. Schick | F |
Substitutes
| 5 | L. Badé | D |
| 28 | J. Blaswich | G |
| 42 | M. Culbreath | M |
| 6 | E. Fernández | M |
| 43 | B. Hawighorst | D |
| 36 | N. Lomb | G |
| 9 | Afonso Moreira | F |
| 10 | M. Tillman | M |