Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty Prediction
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty prediction: Sportiko gives Atalanta a 77% chance of winning, Kairat Almaty 9% and the draw 14%. Last updated 5 Nov 2026, 19:41.
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Match Report
Atalanta dominated possession and territory throughout this UEFA Europa Conference League encounter against Kairat Almaty, but a goalless first half reflected their inability to convert early pressure into chances of real quality. Three yellow cards were distributed before the break, with Kairat's Kamaldeen Sulemana booked and subsequently withdrawn at half-time.
The deadlock was broken in the second half when Marc Gual put Kairat ahead on 53 minutes against the run of play, a result that belied Atalanta's 70% possession and nine corner kicks. The hosts responded through a flurry of substitutions, and Nikola Krstović levelled matters on 82 minutes to earn Atalanta a share of the points. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Atalanta win as most likely at 77%, though the hosts ultimately fell short of claiming all three points.
Atalanta's expected goals figure of 1.80 compared to Kairat's 0.73 underlined their superiority in chance creation, yet a late booking spree — three yellow cards in the final minutes — capped a frustrating evening for the Italian side, who were left to settle for a draw despite their clear statistical dominance.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Atalanta
Match Stats
Atalanta
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 Relja Obrić D | 8.7 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 73 (71%) | 1 |
| 8 Mario Pašalić M | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 87 (79%) | 3 |
| 11 Jonathan Rowe M | 7.7 | 58' | – | – | 3 | 24 (19%) | 4 |
| 42 Giorgio Scalvini D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 93 (84%) | 1 |
| 90 Nikola Krstović F | 7.2 | 23' | 1 | – | 2 | 1 (1%) | – |
| 99 Eljif Elmas M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 66 (62%) | – |
| 13 Éderson M | 7.0 | 45' | – | – | 1 | 53 (49%) | – |
| 17 Charles De Ketelaere F | 6.9 | 32' | – | – | – | 24 (19%) | – |
| 29 Marco Carnesecchi G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 15 (13%) | – |
| 77 Davide Zappacosta D | 6.9 | 16' | – | – | – | 18 (16%) | – |
| 59 Nicola Zalewski M | 6.9 | 32' | – | – | 1 | 19 (17%) | – |
| 9 Gianluca Scamacca F | 6.9 | 67' | – | – | 1 | 25 (18%) | 1 |
| 47 Lorenzo Bernasconi D | 6.7 | 74' | – | – | – | 59 (56%) | 1 |
| 41 J. Idele D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 59 (55%) | 2 |
| 10 Lazar Samardžić M | 6.3 | 58' | – | – | 1 | 27 (25%) | – |
| 7 Kamaldeen Sulemana M | 6.2 | 45' | – | – | – | 28 (23%) | 1 |
Kairat Almaty
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Temirlan Anarbekov G | 8.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 33 (15%) | – |
| 28 Marc Gual F | 8.3 | 73' | 1 | – | 1 | 21 (13%) | 2 |
| 14 Aleksandr Martynovich D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (21%) | 4 |
| 25 Aleksandr Shirobokov D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 34 (27%) | – |
| 13 Jaakko Oksanen M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 16 (14%) | 3 |
| 9 Edmilson F | 7.0 | 63' | – | 1 | – | 15 (14%) | 1 |
| 4 Damir Kasabulat D | 6.7 | 82' | – | – | – | 31 (24%) | 2 |
| 3 Luís Mata D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (16%) | 2 |
| 81 Ismail Bekbolat F | 6.7 | 27' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | 2 |
| 22 Gustavo Mendonca M | 6.5 | 82' | – | – | 1 | 28 (25%) | – |
| 19 Oiva Jukkola M | 6.5 | 27' | – | – | – | 9 (6%) | – |
| 6 Adilet Sadybekov M | 6.5 | 8' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 8 Olzhas Baibek M | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | – | 4 (1%) | – |
| 24 Aleksandr Mrynskiy D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 26 (19%) | 5 |
| 20 Erkin Tapalov D | 6.2 | 17' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
| 17 Azamat Tuyakbayev M | 6.2 | 63' | – | – | – | 19 (15%) | 1 |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowLive insights
Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 78%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.
Min 82: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 78%. Late goal chance: 23.5%.
Min 75: Kairat Almaty leads 0-1. Win probability: 79.6%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 20.4%.
Goal! Score now 0-1. Kairat Almaty win: 66.1%. BTTS: 51.1%.
Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 76.5%. Over 1.5 remaining: 46.5%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty
No head-to-head history found between these teams.
Atalanta — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | H Kairat Almaty | D | 1 - 1 |
| 02 Nov | H Parma | L | 0 - 3 |
| 29 Oct | A Fiorentina | D | 2 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | H Frosinone | D | 4 - 4 |
| 22 Oct | A Ajax | L | 2 - 0 |
Kairat Almaty — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | A Atalanta | D | 1 - 1 |
| 31 Oct | H Altay | D | 1 - 1 |
| 25 Oct | A Aktobe | D | 2 - 2 |
| 22 Oct | H Panathinaikos | L | 1 - 5 |
| 18 Oct | H Irtysh | W | 5 - 0 |
UEFA Europa Conference League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Lugano
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |
Panathinaikos
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 |
Twente
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 |
Monaco
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Brighton
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |
Brann
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |
FC Copenhagen
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |
Universitatea Craiova
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 |
Mjallby AIF
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 |
St. Truiden
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ajax
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 |
Trabzonspor
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |
HNK Hajduk Split
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |
SC Freiburg
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 |
FK Crvena Zvezda
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |
Atalanta
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 |
SC Braga
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 |
Gent
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 |
Riga
|
3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |
FC Thun
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 |
Borac Banja Luka
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |
Lincoln Red Imps FC
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 |
FK Jablonec
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |
Aarhus
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 |
FC Nordsjaelland
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 |
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 |
Kairat Almaty
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 |
CSKA Sofia
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 |
FC Iberia 1999
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 |
Pafos
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 |
Getafe
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 |
Heart Of Midlothian
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 |
KuPS
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |
FC Midtjylland
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 |
Inter Club d'Escaldes
|
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |
Kauno Žalgiris
|
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
Atalanta
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Seong-jae Kim
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Marco Carnesecchi | G |
| 41 | Javison Idele | D |
| 42 | Giorgio Scalvini | D |
| 40 | Relja Obrić | D |
| 47 | Lorenzo Bernasconi | D |
| 99 | Eljif Elmas | M |
| 8 | Mario Pašalić | M |
| 7 | Kamaldeen Sulemana | M |
| 10 | Lazar Samardžić | M |
| 11 | Jonathan Rowe | M |
| 9 | Gianluca Scamacca | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | Éderson | M |
| 59 | Nicola Zalewski | M |
| 17 | Charles De Ketelaere | F |
| 90 | Nikola Krstović | F |
| 77 | Davide Zappacosta | D |
| 57 | Marco Sportiello | G |
| 51 | Mattia Sonzogni | G |
| 56 | Albert Navarro | D |
| 55 | Isaac Isoa | D |
| 46 | Sergej Levak | M |
| 44 | Federico Steffanoni | M |
Kairat Almaty
Formation: 5-3-2
Coach: Seong-jae Kim
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Temirlan Anarbekov | G |
| 24 | Aleksandr Mrynskiy | D |
| 25 | Aleksandr Shirobokov | D |
| 14 | Aleksandr Martynovich | D |
| 4 | Damir Kasabulat | D |
| 3 | Luís Mata | D |
| 17 | Azamat Tuyakbayev | M |
| 22 | Gustavo Mendonca | M |
| 13 | Jaakko Oksanen | M |
| 9 | Edmilson | F |
| 28 | Marc Gual | F |
Substitutes
| 19 | Oiva Jukkola | M |
| 81 | Ismail Bekbolat | F |
| 20 | Erkin Tapalov | D |
| 82 | Sherkhan Kalmurza | G |
| 5 | Lev Kurgin | D |
| 6 | Adilet Sadybekov | M |
| 8 | Olzhas Baibek | M |
| 15 | Mansur Birkurmanov | F |