Ajax vs Atalanta Prediction
Ajax vs Atalanta prediction: Sportiko gives Ajax a 45% chance of winning, Atalanta 29% and the draw 25%. Last updated 22 Oct 2026, 20:52.
Match Report
Ajax secured a 2–0 victory over Atalanta in the UEFA Europa Conference League league stage, despite being outplayed for much of the contest. The first half ended goalless, with Atalanta's Sofyan Amrabat picking up a yellow card on the stroke of half-time. The Italian side dominated possession at 62% and generated an expected goals figure of 1.74 compared to Ajax's 0.74, yet failed to convert any of their six shots on target.
The match remained tight through a flurry of second-half substitutions from both sides before Ajax broke the deadlock against the run of play. Tolu Arokodare netted in the 87th minute to give the hosts the lead, and Abdellah Ouazane added a second deep into stoppage time to seal the result. Atalanta's frustration was evident, with Lazar Samardžić and Nicola Zalewski both collecting yellow cards in the second half.
Our pre-match AI model had rated an Ajax win as the most likely outcome at 45%, a call that proved correct despite the statistical picture firmly favouring Atalanta throughout.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Ajax
Match Stats
Ajax
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Lucas Rosa D | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 56 (50%) | 4 |
| 15 Youri Baas D | 7.9 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 85 (79%) | 3 |
| 10 Oscar Gloukh M | 7.5 | 62' | – | – | 3 | 52 (45%) | 1 |
| 8 Julian Brandt M | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 76 (65%) | 2 |
| 4 Sofyan Amrabat M | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 90 (85%) | 2 |
| 24 Jorthy Mokio M | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 54 (54%) | – |
| 99 Tolu Arokodare F | 7.2 | 24' | 1 | – | 2 | 3 (2%) | – |
| 1 Marc-André Ter Stegen G | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (37%) | – |
| 30 Aaron Bouwman D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 86 (81%) | 1 |
| 18 Davy Klaassen M | 7.0 | 62' | – | – | 2 | 19 (19%) | 1 |
| 11 Viktor Tsygankov F | 6.7 | 28' | – | – | – | 16 (15%) | 1 |
| 5 Owen Wijndal D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 55 (50%) | – |
| 68 Abdellah Ouazane M | 6.6 | 28' | – | – | – | 11 (10%) | – |
| 38 Marcos Leonardo F | 6.6 | 66' | – | – | 1 | 10 (10%) | – |
Atalanta
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77 Davide Zappacosta D | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 42 (40%) | 3 |
| 70 Gianluca Gaetano M | 7.5 | 80' | – | – | 2 | 42 (38%) | 1 |
| 31 Thomas Kristensen D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 50 (47%) | – |
| 40 Relja Obrić D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (34%) | – |
| 29 Marco Carnesecchi G | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (24%) | – |
| 17 Charles De Ketelaere M | 6.9 | 62' | – | – | – | 21 (19%) | 1 |
| 59 Nicola Zalewski M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 34 (25%) | 1 |
| 90 Nikola Krstović F | 6.9 | 18' | – | – | – | 5 (3%) | – |
| 16 Raoul Bellanova D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (34%) | – |
| 9 Gianluca Scamacca F | 6.9 | 72' | – | – | 2 | 18 (13%) | – |
| 11 Jonathan Rowe F | 6.7 | 10' | – | – | – | 7 (7%) | – |
| 10 Lazar Samardžić M | 6.7 | 28' | – | – | 1 | 11 (11%) | – |
| 13 Éderson M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 38 (34%) | 3 |
| 99 Eljif Elmas M | 6.5 | 80' | – | – | – | 25 (20%) | 1 |
| 8 Mario Pašalić M | 6.3 | 10' | – | – | – | 7 (7%) | 1 |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowAdvanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
T. Arokodare
6 gls
D. Klaassen
6 gls
O. Gloukh
5 gls
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Ajax vs Atalanta
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Dec 2020 | Ajax | 0 - 1 | Atalanta |
| 27 Oct 2020 | Atalanta | 2 - 2 | Ajax |
Ajax — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | A FC Midtjylland | W | 1 - 6 |
| 31 Oct | H AZ Alkmaar | W | 1 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | A Sparta Rotterdam | W | 1 - 2 |
| 22 Oct | H Atalanta | W | 2 - 0 |
| 18 Oct | A Groningen | W | 2 - 5 |
Atalanta — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | H Kairat Almaty | D | 1 - 1 |
| 02 Nov | H Parma | L | 0 - 3 |
| 29 Oct | A Fiorentina | D | 2 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | H Frosinone | D | 4 - 4 |
| 22 Oct | A Ajax | L | 2 - 0 |
UEFA Europa Conference League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Lugano
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |
Panathinaikos
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 |
Twente
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 |
Monaco
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Brighton
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |
Brann
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |
FC Copenhagen
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |
Universitatea Craiova
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 |
Mjallby AIF
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 |
St. Truiden
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ajax
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 |
Trabzonspor
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |
HNK Hajduk Split
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |
SC Freiburg
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 |
FK Crvena Zvezda
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |
Atalanta
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 |
SC Braga
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 |
Gent
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 |
Riga
|
3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |
FC Thun
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 |
Borac Banja Luka
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |
Lincoln Red Imps FC
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 |
FK Jablonec
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |
Aarhus
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 |
FC Nordsjaelland
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 |
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 |
Kairat Almaty
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 |
CSKA Sofia
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 |
FC Iberia 1999
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 |
Pafos
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 |
Getafe
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 |
Heart Of Midlothian
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 |
KuPS
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |
FC Midtjylland
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 |
Inter Club d'Escaldes
|
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |
Kauno Žalgiris
|
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
Atalanta
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Seong-jae Kim
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Marco Carnesecchi | G |
| 16 | Raoul Bellanova | D |
| 31 | Thomas Kristensen | D |
| 40 | Relja Obrić | D |
| 77 | Davide Zappacosta | D |
| 70 | Gianluca Gaetano | M |
| 13 | Éderson | M |
| 99 | Eljif Elmas | M |
| 17 | Charles De Ketelaere | M |
| 59 | Nicola Zalewski | M |
| 9 | Gianluca Scamacca | F |
Substitutes
| 10 | Lazar Samardžić | M |
| 51 | Mattia Sonzogni | G |
| 57 | Marco Sportiello | G |
| 55 | Isaac Isoa | D |
| 8 | Mario Pašalić | M |
| 41 | Javison Idele | M |
| 47 | Lorenzo Bernasconi | D |
| 46 | Sergej Levak | M |
| 48 | Andrea Bonanomi | M |
| 11 | Jonathan Rowe | F |
| 90 | Nikola Krstović | F |
Ajax
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Seong-jae Kim
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marc-André Ter Stegen | G |
| 2 | Lucas Rosa | D |
| 30 | Aaron Bouwman | D |
| 15 | Youri Baas | D |
| 5 | Owen Wijndal | D |
| 24 | Jorthy Mokio | M |
| 4 | Sofyan Amrabat | M |
| 18 | Davy Klaassen | M |
| 8 | Julian Brandt | M |
| 10 | Oscar Gloukh | M |
| 38 | Marcos Leonardo | F |
Substitutes
| 11 | Viktor Tsygankov | F |
| 68 | Abdellah Ouazane | M |
| 99 | Tolu Arokodare | F |
| 22 | Joeri Heerkens | G |
| 26 | Maarten Paes | G |
| 6 | Thilo Kehrer | D |
| 21 | Jofre Torrents | D |
| 36 | Dies Janse | D |
| 67 | Mohamed Abdalla | M |
| 43 | Rayane Bounida | F |
| 49 | Diego Pugno | F |