Sturm Graz vs Marseille Prediction
Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction: Sportiko gives Sturm Graz a 31% chance of winning, Marseille 42% and the draw 27%. Last updated 22 Oct 2026, 18:38.
Match Report
Sturm Graz claimed a hard-fought 1–0 victory over Marseille in the UEFA Europa League league stage, with Oumar Diakité's 13th-minute strike proving the decisive moment of the contest. The Austrian side defended their lead for the remainder of the match, going into half-time with their advantage intact despite Marseille enjoying the lion's share of possession throughout.
The second half saw Marseille push hard to find an equaliser, and the statistics reflected their dominance — the visitors generated an expected goals figure of 1.47 compared to Sturm's 0.62, and registered five shots on target to the hosts' one. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Marseille win as the most likely outcome at 42%, a call that ultimately did not materialise. A flurry of substitutions and yellow cards punctuated the closing stages, with five bookings handed out across both sides, but Sturm's defensive resolve held firm.
The result is a significant one for Sturm Graz, who secured all three points despite being outplayed for long periods. Marseille will be frustrated to leave empty-handed given the chances they created, with their inability to convert proving costly.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Sturm Graz
Match Stats
Sturm Graz
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oumar Diakité F | 7.6 | 46' | 1 | – | 2 | 7 (7%) | – |
| 39 Luca Weinhandl M | 7.4 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 26 (18%) | 3 |
| 2 Joshua Quarshie D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (20%) | – |
| 5 Albert Vallci D | 7.0 | 3' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 78 Valmir Matoshi M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 22 (14%) | 1 |
| 30 Paul Koller D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 32 (19%) | – |
| 23 Arjan Malić D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 44 (31%) | 3 |
| 4 Jon Gorenc Stanković M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 24 (20%) | – |
| 26 Belmin Beganović F | 6.6 | 44' | – | – | 2 | 13 (10%) | 1 |
| 22 Ammar Helac G | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (13%) | – |
| 19 Simon Seidl F | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 23 (15%) | 1 |
| 27 L. Balbo M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 16 (9%) | 2 |
| 43 Jacob Hödl M | 6.2 | 87' | – | – | 1 | 17 (8%) | 1 |
Marseille
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Ulisses Garcia D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 62 (58%) | 7 |
| 12 Jeffrey de Lange G | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 60 (46%) | – |
| 23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg M | 7.0 | 25' | – | – | – | 36 (34%) | – |
| 21 Nayef Aguerd D | 7.0 | 65' | – | – | 1 | 76 (69%) | 1 |
| 4 Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley D | 6.8 | 25' | – | – | – | 30 (29%) | 1 |
| 8 Himad Abdelli M | 6.7 | 44' | – | – | – | 39 (35%) | – |
| 14 Igor Paixão F | 6.6 | 44' | – | – | 4 | 27 (25%) | – |
| 9 Amine Gouiri M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 28 (25%) | 3 |
| 19 Geoffrey Kondogbia M | 6.5 | 65' | – | – | 1 | 41 (37%) | 1 |
| 22 Tim Weah F | 6.3 | 7' | – | – | – | 10 (9%) | – |
| 11 Neal Maupay F | 6.3 | 46' | – | – | 2 | 16 (10%) | – |
| 18 Bamo Meïté D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 76 (74%) | 1 |
| 7 Angel Gomes M | 6.2 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 12 (9%) | – |
| 74 K. Bezahaf D | 6.1 | 83' | – | – | – | 58 (52%) | 2 |
| 48 Keyliane Abdallah M | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 49 (39%) | 1 |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowAdvanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
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O. Diakité
3 gls
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Sturm Graz vs Marseille
No head-to-head history found between these teams.
Sturm Graz — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | H Celje | L | 2 - 3 |
| 01 Nov | A Wolfsberger AC | D | 1 - 1 |
| 29 Oct | A Austria Lustenau | L | 3 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | H Ried | D | 2 - 2 |
| 22 Oct | H Marseille | W | 1 - 0 |
Marseille — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | A Bayer Leverkusen | W | 0 - 1 |
| 01 Nov | H Toulouse | W | 2 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | H Le Havre | W | 4 - 3 |
| 22 Oct | A Sturm Graz | L | 1 - 0 |
| 18 Oct | A Angers | W | 2 - 5 |
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benfica
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |
Bournemouth
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |
Ferencvarosi TC
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |
Union St. Gilloise
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |
Juventus
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |
Olympiakos Piraeus
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |
Beşiktaş
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |
Dinamo Zagreb
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |
Levski Sofia
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |
Sunderland
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |
NEC Nijmegen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |
Lyon
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |
Anderlecht
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |
OFI
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |
Rennes
|
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |
Omonia Nicosia
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |
Torreense
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |
Real Sociedad
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |
Crystal Palace
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |
Sparta Praha
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |
Sturm Graz
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |
Celje
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |
Red Bull Salzburg
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |
Celta Vigo
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |
AC Milan
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |
Jagiellonia
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |
Plzen
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |
Marseille
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |
Celtic
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |
Hapoel Beer Sheva
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |
Lillestrom
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |
Lech Poznan
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |
Ararat-Armenia
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 0 |
Marseille
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Bruno Genesio
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | J. de Lange | G |
| 74 | K. Bezahaf | D |
| 18 | B. Meité | D |
| 21 | N. Aguerd | D |
| 25 | U. Garcia | D |
| 42 | Nouhoum Kamissoko | M |
| 19 | G. Kondogbia | M |
| 48 | K. Abdallah | M |
| 7 | A. Gomes | M |
| 9 | A. Gouiri | M |
| 11 | N. Maupay | F |
Substitutes
| 23 | P. Højbjerg | M |
| 43 | T. Mmadi | F |
| 6 | T. Nnadi | M |
| 14 | Igor Paixão | F |
| 22 | T. Weah | F |
| 44 | Antoine Valero | F |
| 8 | H. Abdelli | M |
| 77 | A. Harit | M |
| 33 | Emerson | D |
| 4 | C. Egan-Riley | D |
| 41 | Ibrahim Gomis | G |
| 40 | J. Van Neck | G |
Sturm Graz
Formation: 3-4-1-2
Coach: F. Ingolitsch
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | A. Helac | G |
| 23 | A. Malic | D |
| 2 | J. Quarshie | D |
| 30 | P. Koller | D |
| 43 | Jacob Peter Hödl | M |
| 4 | J. Gorenc Stankovič | M |
| 78 | V. Matoshi | M |
| 27 | L. Balbo | M |
| 39 | Luca Weinhandl | M |
| 19 | S. Seidl | F |
| 14 | O. Diakité | F |
Substitutes
| 26 | B. Beganović | F |
| 25 | M. Grgic | M |
| 40 | J. Halwachs | M |
| 11 | A. Kayombo | F |
| 41 | E. Lorenz | G |
| 21 | P. Petrović | D |
| 5 | A. Vallci | D |
| 32 | C. Wiener-Pucher | G |