France vs Italy Prediction

UEFA Nations League · League A - 3

02 Oct 2026, 18:45

Post on X

France

Home

18:45

02 Oct 2026

Italy

Away

AI call Difficult France win or draw

55%

26%

19%

Home Win Draw Away Win

France vs Italy prediction: Sportiko gives France a 55% chance of winning, Italy 19% and the draw 26%. Last updated 29 Sep 2026, 02:58.

Free account

Unlock all of today's AI predictions — free

You've seen today's free previews. Create a free account for the AI call, win probabilities and confidence on every match — plus follow your teams and get the daily digest.

Already have an account? Log in

Premium

Unlock the AI's full read on France vs Italy

All 70+ probability markets
AI Deep-Dive match report
Value Edge — model vs market
Pick types you choose

Go Premium

At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.3%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

France

WWLLW

Italy

WLLDL

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

55%

45%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

19%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Italy goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	4	3	1
1	10	12	5	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	6	6	3	1
4	3	3	1
5	1	1	1

↑ France goals · most likely 1–1 (12.3%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Why this pick? · Premium AI Deep-Dive · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

26%

Away Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

26%

Away Win

19%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Winner

75% Home (No Draw) 25% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

32% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

55% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 19% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

Premium

1-3 Goals

Premium

2-3 Goals

Premium

3-5 Goals

Premium

1-2 Goals

Premium

4-6 Goals

Premium

Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

Premium

BTTS & Under 3.5

Premium

BTTS & Over 3.5

Premium

Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Draw & Over 2.5

Premium

Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Away & Over 2.5

Premium

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

Premium

Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4%	4.5%	2.9%	1.0%	0.2%
1	9.6%	12.3%	5.4%	1.8%	0.4%
2	10.1%	10.0%	5.0%	1.6%	0.4%
3	6.2%	6.1%	3.0%	1.0%	0.3%
4	2.9%	2.8%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

Premium

1st Half Home Win

Premium

1st Half Away Win

Premium

1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

Premium

1st Half Draw or Away

Premium

1st Half Home or Away

Premium

1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

Premium

1h Exact Goals

32%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

Premium

2nd Half Draw

Premium

2nd Half Away Win

Premium

2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

Premium

2nd Half Home or Away

Premium

2nd Half Draw or Away

Premium

2h Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

49%

1.5

51%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

Premium

2h Exact Goals

20%

29%

28%

15%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	France	Draw	Italy
France	30.4%	3.0%	0.9%
Draw	22.5%	15.6%	6.7%
Italy	4.0%	5.1%	11.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

46%

1.5

54%

73%

2.5

27%

90%

3.5

11%

Home Exact Goals

16%

30%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

Premium

Home +1 Win

Premium

Away +2 Win

Premium

Away +1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Win

Premium

Away -1 Draw

Premium

Away -1 Win

Premium

Away -2 Draw

Premium

Away -2 Win

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: France vs Italy

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

France — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
28 Sep	A Belgium	W	0 - 1
25 Sep	A Türkiye	W	0 - 1
18 Jul	H England	L	4 - 6
14 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 2
09 Jul	H Morocco	W	2 - 0

Italy — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
28 Sep	A Türkiye	W	1 - 4
25 Sep	H Belgium	L	0 - 2
29 Jun	A Switzerland	L	2 - 0
24 Jun	A Croatia	D	1 - 1
20 Jun	A Spain	L	1 - 0

UEFA Nations League Standings

League A - Group A

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	2	2	0	2	0	+2	6
2	Belgium	2	1	1	2	1	+1	3
3	Italy	2	1	1	4	3	+1	3
4	Türkiye	2	0	2	1	5	-4	0

League A - Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Greece	2	2	0	0	3	1	+2	6
2	Netherlands	2	1	1	0	3	2	+1	4
3	Germany	2	0	1	1	1	2	-1	1
4	Serbia	2	0	0	2	2	4	-2	0

League A - Group C

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	1	1	0	3	2	+1	3
2	Croatia	1	1	0	2	1	+1	3
3	England	1	0	1	2	3	-1	0
4	Czechia	1	0	1	1	2	-1	0

League A - Group D

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	2	2	0	3	1	+2	6
2	Norway	2	1	1	4	4	0	3
3	Denmark	2	1	1	4	3	+1	3
4	Wales	2	0	2	0	3	-3	0

League B - Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	1	1	0	0	3	0	+3	3
2	Slovenia	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
3	Scotland	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
4	FYR Macedonia	1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0

League B - Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Ukraine	2	1	1	0	1	0	+1	4
2	Northern Ireland	2	1	1	0	1	0	+1	4
3	Hungary	2	0	1	1	0	1	-1	1
4	Georgia	2	0	1	1	0	1	-1	1

League B - Group C

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Austria	2	2	0	6	2	+4	6
2	Kosovo	2	1	1	2	3	-1	3
3	Rep. Of Ireland	2	1	1	3	1	+2	3
4	Israel	2	0	2	1	6	-5	0

League B - Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Sweden	2	2	0	0	5	2	+3	6
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	2	1	1	0	4	2	+2	4
3	Poland	2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1
4	Romania	2	0	0	2	3	6	-3	0

League C - Group A

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Finland	1	1	0	7	0	+7	3
2	Albania	1	1	0	2	0	+2	3
3	Belarus	1	0	1	0	2	-2	0
4	San Marino	1	0	1	0	7	-7	0

League C - Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Montenegro	2	2	0	0	5	3	+2	6
2	Armenia	2	1	0	1	4	3	+1	3
3	Cyprus	2	0	1	1	1	2	-1	1
4	Latvia	2	0	1	1	0	2	-2	1

League C - Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Slovakia	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
2	Kazakhstan	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
3	Faroe Islands	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
4	Moldova	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0

League C - Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Luxembourg	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
2	Estonia	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
3	Iceland	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
4	Bulgaria	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0

League D - Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Malta	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
2	Gibraltar	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
3	Andorra	2	0	1	1	1	2	-1	1

League D - Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lithuania	2	1	1	0	3	1	+2	4
2	Azerbaijan	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
3	Liechtenstein	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.