Truro City vs Merthyr Town Prediction

FA Cup · 2nd Round Qualifying

Post on X

Truro City

Home

2 : 0

HT 1 - 0

1st leg 1-1 · Aggregate 3-1

Merthyr Town

Away

AI call Truro City or draw

45%

27%

28%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Truro City vs Merthyr Town prediction: Sportiko gives Truro City a 45% chance of winning, Merthyr Town 28% and the draw 27%. Last updated 22 Sep 2026, 22:01.

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Our lean

Truro City or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.6%

Both teams to score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

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Truro City

WDDDW

Merthyr Town

LDDWW

Last 1 meetings Truro City · 0W 1D 0L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

45%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

28%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Merthyr Town goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	5	4	2	1
1	7	13	7	3	1
2	7	9	6	3	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	2	2	1	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Truro City goals · most likely 1–1 (12.6%)

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Away Win

28%

Draw

27%

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS Yes 39% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Away Win

28%

Draw

27%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

62% Home (No Draw) 38% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

24% Home Win by 2+ 12% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Home Scores More 28% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS Yes 39% BTTS No

Exact Goals

12%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	5.1%	4.2%	1.8%	0.6%
1	7.2%	12.6%	7.2%	3.1%	1.0%
2	7.3%	9.5%	6.1%	2.6%	0.9%
3	4.2%	5.4%	3.5%	1.5%	0.5%
4	1.8%	2.3%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

46%

1.5

54%

74%

2.5

26%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

19%

27%

28%

16%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Truro City	Draw	Merthyr Town
Truro City	24.4%	3.7%	1.6%
Draw	18.5%	15.9%	10.0%
Merthyr Town	3.7%	5.3%	16.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

50%

1.5

50%

76%

2.5

24%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Truro City vs Merthyr Town

0 Truro City Wins

1 Draws

0 Merthyr Town Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 Sep 2026	Merthyr Town	1 - 1	Truro City

Truro City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
22 Sep	H Merthyr Town	W	2 - 0
19 Sep	A Merthyr Town	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Salisbury	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	H Walton & Hersham	D	1 - 1
08 Sep	H Leicester City U21	W	4 - 1

Merthyr Town — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
22 Sep	A Truro City	L	2 - 0
19 Sep	H Truro City	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Scarborough Athletic	D	0 - 0
08 Sep	A Chester	W	0 - 1
05 Sep	H Macclesfield	W	2 - 1

FA Cup Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Truro City

Coach: Emiliano Té

Merthyr Town

Coach: P. Michael