Mortágua vs Leça Prediction

Taça de Portugal · Round of 128

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Mortágua

Home

0 : 2

HT 0 - 1

Leça

Away

AI call Leça or draw

22%

28%

50%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Mortágua vs Leça prediction: Sportiko gives Mortágua a 22% chance of winning, Leça 50% and the draw 28%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 16:00.

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Under 3.5 Goals 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 73%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 39'

HT 0–1

⚽ 0–2 58'

FT 0–2

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Confidence Low (50%)

At a glance

Our lean

Leça or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.6%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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Mortágua

LDWDW

Leça

WWLWL

Live insights

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Leça leads 0-2. Win probability: 99.2%. Comeback chance: 0.8%.

58' Goal 85% sure

Leça now leads 0-2 with 97.1% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 58.9%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-1. Leça leads. Win probability: 80.6%. Over 0.5 more goals: 70.9%.

39' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 0-1. Leça win: 79.9%. BTTS: 42.6%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Leça goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	11	10	5	2	1
1	6	14	10	5	2	1
2	4	6	5	2	1
3	1	2	2	1
4
5

↑ Mortágua goals · most likely 1–1 (13.6%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

50%

Draw

28%

Home Win

22%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

50%

Draw

28%

Home Win

22%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

70% Away (No Draw) 31% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Away Win by 2+ 8% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

50% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals 22% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	10.7%	9.7%	5.2%	2.1%
1	6.0%	13.6%	9.5%	5.1%	2.0%
2	3.7%	5.9%	4.7%	2.5%	1.0%
3	1.2%	1.9%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Mortágua	Draw	Leça
Mortágua	12.7%	4.1%	2.2%
Draw	8.7%	18.0%	17.1%
Leça	1.3%	4.2%	31.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

53%

1.5

47%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Mortágua vs Leça

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Mortágua — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Leça	L	0 - 2
13 Sep	A UD da Serra	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Fazendense	W	2 - 1
30 Aug	A SC Covilha	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Sertanense	W	1 - 3

Leça — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Mortágua	W	0 - 2
12 Sep	A Trofense	W	1 - 4
06 Sep	H Fafe	L	0 - 3
23 Aug	A Paredes	W	1 - 2
15 Aug	A Guimaraes B	L	2 - 0

Taça de Portugal Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.