Oliveirense vs Penafiel Prediction

Taça de Portugal · Round of 128

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Oliveirense

Home

1 : 2

HT 1 - 0

Penafiel

Away

AI call Penafiel or draw

29%

42%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Oliveirense vs Penafiel prediction: Sportiko gives Oliveirense a 29% chance of winning, Penafiel 42% and the draw 29%. Last updated 19 Sep 2026, 17:59.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Under 3.5 Goals 73%

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Timeline

32' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⚽ 1–1 46'

Claudio Mendes

⚽ 1–2 69'

Penalty

FT 1–2

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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Our lean

Penafiel or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.9%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Oliveirense

LWLWW

Penafiel

WWWWW

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Penafiel leads 1-2. Win probability: 86.1%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 13.9%.

70' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-2. Penafiel win: 83.3%. BTTS: 100%.

48' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 43.9%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. Oliveirense leads. Win probability: 66.8%. Over 0.5 more goals: 71.9%.

33' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Oliveirense win: 63.6%. BTTS: 60.6%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Penafiel goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	9	8	4	1
1	7	14	9	4	2
2	5	7	5	3	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Oliveirense goals · most likely 1–1 (13.9%)

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

29%

Home Win

29%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

29%

Home Win

29%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

59% Away (No Draw) 41% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

21% Away Win by 2+ 12% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

42% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals 29% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.7%	8.8%	7.7%	3.8%	1.4%
1	6.8%	13.9%	9.1%	4.4%	1.6%
2	5.0%	7.3%	5.3%	2.6%	1.0%
3	2.0%	2.9%	2.1%	1.0%	0.4%
4	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Oliveirense	Draw	Penafiel
Oliveirense	13.6%	3.0%	1.3%
Draw	13.4%	17.8%	12.3%
Penafiel	2.8%	6.2%	29.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Oliveirense vs Penafiel

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Oliveirense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Penafiel	L	1 - 2
12 Sep	H Mafra	W	2 - 1
06 Sep	A Atlético CP	L	3 - 1
29 Aug	H Penalva Castelo	W	4 - 0
23 Aug	H Vitória de Sernache	W	3 - 2

Penafiel — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Oliveirense	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	A Felgueiras 1932	W	1 - 2
05 Sep	H Academica	W	4 - 1
30 Aug	A FC Porto B	W	0 - 3
23 Aug	H Sporting CP B	W	2 - 0

Taça de Portugal Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Oliveirense

Coach: Pedro Ribeiro

Penafiel

Coach: Manuel Aira Jose