Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim Prediction

Taça de Portugal · Round of 128

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Vitória de Sernache

Home

2 : 1

HT 1 - 0

Varzim

Away

AI call Varzim or draw

22%

29%

48%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim prediction: Sportiko gives Vitória de Sernache a 22% chance of winning, Varzim 48% and the draw 29%. Last updated 19 Sep 2026, 16:01.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%

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Timeline

16' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⚽ 1–1 75'

Red Card

84' ▮

90' ⚽ 2–1

▮ 90+5'

Red Card

FT 2–1

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Confidence Low (48%)

At a glance

Our lean

Varzim or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.8%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Vitória de Sernache

WLLWL

Varzim

LLLWW

Live insights

90' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 2-1! Vitória de Sernache win probability: 95.4%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 9.5%.

84' time check 80% sure

Min 84: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 85.4%. Late goal chance: 15.3%.

77' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 72.4%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Vitória de Sernache leads 1-0. Win probability: 80.8%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 19.2%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. Vitória de Sernache leads. Win probability: 62.8%. Over 0.5 more goals: 70%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Varzim goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	11	10	5	2	1
1	6	14	9	5	2	1
2	4	6	5	2	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Vitória de Sernache goals · most likely 1–1 (13.8%)

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Match Result

Away Win

48%

Draw

29%

Home Win

22%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

48%

Draw

29%

Home Win

22%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

68% Away (No Draw) 32% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

25% Away Win by 2+ 8% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

48% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals 22% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.9%	11.0%	9.7%	4.9%	1.9%
1	6.4%	13.8%	9.4%	4.8%	1.8%
2	3.9%	5.9%	4.5%	2.3%	0.9%
3	1.3%	1.9%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Vitória de Sernache	Draw	Varzim
Vitória de Sernache	13.1%	4.3%	2.4%
Draw	8.9%	18.6%	18.0%
Varzim	1.2%	4.0%	29.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Vitória de Sernache — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Varzim	W	2 - 1
13 Sep	A Caldas	L	2 - 0
06 Sep	H CF Os Belenenses	L	1 - 3
30 Aug	A Nazarenos	W	0 - 3
23 Aug	A Oliveirense	L	3 - 2

Varzim — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Vitória de Sernache	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	H Vianense	L	1 - 2
05 Sep	H Paredes	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	H Trofense	W	5 - 1
16 Aug	H AD Marco 09	W	2 - 1

Taça de Portugal Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.