Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki Prediction

Veikkausliiga · Championship Group - 25

Post on X

Gnistan

Home

1 : 1

HT 1 - 1

HJK Helsinki

Away

Mustapekka Areena, Helsinki

AI call HJK Helsinki or draw

25%

50%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki prediction: Sportiko gives Gnistan a 25% chance of winning, HJK Helsinki 50% and the draw 25%. Last updated 18 Sep 2026, 17:56.

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Home to Score 72%
1st Half Over 0.5 73%

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Timeline

A. Obileye assist: E. Arko-Mensah

22' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 24'

P. Mentu

HT 1–1

⇄ 50'

T. Cissokho ⇄ M. Bogićević

J. Latonen ⇄ G. Europaeus

60' ⇄

R. Eremenko ⇄ S. Ylätupa

60' ⇄

⇄ 63'

M. Kirilov ⇄ M. Borchers

⇄ 63'

L. Lappalainen ⇄ S. Haarala

D. Pérez

79' ⇄

A. Obileye ⇄ J. Ojala

81' ⇄

Yellow Card

84' ▮

⇄ 87'

L. Montano ⇄ N. Alho

⇄ 87'

A. Ring ⇄ L. Lingman

FT 1–1

Gnistan

Match Stats

HJK Helsinki

42% Ball Possession 58%

14 Total Shots 15

2 Shots on Goal 5

9 Shots off Goal 7

3 Blocked Shots 3

10 Shots insidebox 10

4 Shots outsidebox 5

5 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 4

9 Fouls 8

1 Yellow Cards 0

0 Red Cards 0

5 Goalkeeper Saves 1

283 Total passes 586

183 Passes accurate 474

8 Free Kicks 9

Gnistan

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
67 A. Obileye D	7.6	81'	1	–	1	26 (20%)	1
26 R. Eremenko F	7.2	60'	–	–	2	23 (18%)	1
1 O. Virtanen G	7.0	90'	–	–	–	30 (10%)	–
40 J. Ojala D	6.7	9'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
11 D. Pérez F	6.6	79'	–	–	3	10 (9%)	2
14 S. Eremenko D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	27 (20%)	7
24 P. Gnanou M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	16 (12%)	–
23 S. Ylätupa F	6.4	30'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–
15 G. Europaeus M	6.4	30'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–
12 E. Arko-Mensah M	6.3	90'	–	1	1	27 (17%)	1
7 A. Atarah F	6.3	90'	–	–	3	29 (14%)	1
Seamus Maughan	6.2	11'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
27 O. Hannula M	6.1	90'	–	–	1	23 (14%)	–
3 Ruxi D	6.1	90'	–	–	2	27 (16%)	1
10 J. Latonen M	5.8	60'	–	–	–	23 (16%)	–

HJK Helsinki

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 P. Mentu M	8.2	90'	1	–	1	74 (63%)	2
7 Alfie Cicale F	7.1	90'	–	–	2	35 (28%)	3
29 S. Haarala F	6.8	27'	–	–	1	14 (10%)	1
6 V. Tikkanen D	6.8	90'	–	–	–	82 (71%)	1
26 L. Lappalainen F	6.7	63'	–	–	–	27 (21%)	1
9 M. Borchers F	6.6	27'	–	–	4	7 (5%)	–
10 L. Lingman M	6.6	3'	–	–	1	11 (9%)	–
31 M. Bogićević D	6.5	40'	–	–	–	41 (38%)	–
3 T. Cissokho D	6.4	50'	–	–	–	54 (46%)	–
17 N. Alho D	6.4	3'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	1
13 K. Simojoki D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	50 (38%)	2
4 A. Ring M	6.3	87'	–	–	1	60 (50%)	1
20 T. Pukki F	6.2	90'	–	–	3	19 (15%)	–
11 M. Kirilov M	6.2	63'	–	–	–	22 (18%)	–
1 J. Öst G	6.1	90'	–	–	–	45 (29%)	–
14 L. Montano D	6.0	87'	–	–	2	39 (27%)	1

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Confidence Low (50%)

At a glance

Our lean

HJK Helsinki or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.6%

Both teams to score

63%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

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Gnistan

DWDDW

HJK Helsinki

DDWLW

Last 1 meetings Gnistan · 1W 0D 0L

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 64%. Late goal chance: 40.6%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-1. Teams level going into the 2nd half. Home win 2H: 22.4%, Away win 2H: 39.5%.

26' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 31.3%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

23' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Gnistan win: 54.5%. BTTS: 75.4%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

25%

10%

Draw

25%

45%

Away

50%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

HJK Helsinki goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	7	8	5	2	1
1	4	12	10	6	3	1
2	4	7	6	4	2	1
3	2	3	3	2	1
4		1	1	1
5

↑ Gnistan goals · most likely 1–1 (11.6%)

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Players in form

Gnistan

A. Akinyemi 3 gls

HJK Helsinki

M. Borchers 4 gls

T. Pukki 3 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

50%

Draw

25%

Home Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS Yes 37% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

16%

1.5

84%

39%

2.5

61%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

91%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

50%

Draw

25%

Home Win

25%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

67% Away (No Draw) 33% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

28% Away Win by 2+ 11% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

50% Away Scores More 25% Equal Goals 25% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

16%

1.5

84%

39%

2.5

61%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

91%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS Yes 37% BTTS No

Exact Goals

11%

23%

18%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.6%	6.6%	7.5%	4.8%	2.2%
1	4.1%	11.6%	9.7%	6.1%	2.9%
2	3.5%	6.6%	6.3%	4.0%	1.9%
3	1.5%	2.9%	2.7%	1.7%	0.8%
4	0.5%	0.9%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

44%

1.5

56%

73%

2.5

27%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

18%

26%

29%

16%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Gnistan	Draw	HJK Helsinki
Gnistan	13.6%	4.2%	2.9%
Draw	9.8%	14.6%	16.7%
HJK Helsinki	2.1%	4.6%	31.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

44%

1.5

56%

72%

2.5

28%

89%

3.5

11%

Away Exact Goals

15%

29%

27%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki

1 Gnistan Wins

0 Draws

0 HJK Helsinki Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
23 Aug 2026	HJK Helsinki	2 - 3	Gnistan

Gnistan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H HJK Helsinki	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A AC Oulu	W	1 - 2
08 Sep	H KuPS	D	1 - 1
31 Aug	H Turku PS	D	1 - 1
23 Aug	A HJK Helsinki	W	2 - 3

HJK Helsinki — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Gnistan	D	1 - 1
13 Sep	A KuPS	D	0 - 0
09 Sep	H Inter Turku	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Inter Turku	L	1 - 0
31 Aug	A Ilves	W	1 - 2

Veikkausliiga Standings

Champion Additional

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	25	13	9	3	41	24	+17	48
2	Inter Turku	25	13	9	3	32	18	+14	48
3	HJK Helsinki	25	12	6	7	39	29	+10	42
4	Gnistan	25	11	8	6	40	32	+8	41
5	VPS	25	10	6	9	30	25	+5	36
6	AC Oulu	25	10	4	11	26	29	-3	34

Relegation Play-Off

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lahti	25	10	6	9	30	24	+6	36
2	Ilves	25	10	4	11	42	38	+4	34
3	Turku PS	25	8	8	9	28	27	+1	32
4	SJK	25	5	9	11	28	35	-7	24
5	Mariehamn	25	4	5	16	20	47	-27	17
6	FF Jaro	25	3	8	14	20	48	-28	17

HJK Helsinki

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: J. Rantanen

1 Öst

14 Montano

3 Cissokho

6 Tikkanen

13 Simojoki

8 Mentu

4 Ring

11 Kirilov

7 Cicale

20 Pukki

26 Lappalainen

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	J. Öst	G
13	K. Simojoki	D
6	V. Tikkanen	D
3	T. Cissokho	D
14	L. Montano	D
11	M. Kirilov	M
4	A. Ring	M
8	P. Mentu	M
26	L. Lappalainen	F
20	T. Pukki	F
7	Alfie Cicale	F

Substitutes

10	L. Lingman	M
30	J. Samooja	G
15	J. Kallinen	M
29	S. Haarala	F
32	Mouhamed Guèye II	M
9	M. Borchers	F
31	M. Bogićević	D
17	N. Alho	D

Gnistan

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Horacio Melgarejo

1 Virtanen

3 Ruxi

67 Obileye

14 Eremenko

12 Arko-Mensah

10 Latonen

24 Gnanou

27 Hannula

26 Eremenko

7 Atarah

11 Pérez

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	O. Virtanen	G
14	S. Eremenko	D
67	A. Obileye	D
3	Ruxi	D
27	O. Hannula	M
24	P. Gnanou	M
10	J. Latonen	M
12	E. Arko-Mensah	M
11	D. Pérez	F
7	A. Atarah	F
26	R. Eremenko	F

Substitutes

2	B. Dahlström	D
15	G. Europaeus	M
45	Kosmo Launiala	F
13	O. Lyberopoulos	G
40	J. Ojala	D
25	Noah Rossi	D
23	S. Ylätupa	F