Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 38

Post on X

Athletic Club

Away

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

AI call Real Madrid to win

77%

15%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Real Madrid vs Athletic Club prediction: Sportiko gives Real Madrid a 77% chance of winning, Athletic Club 9% and the draw 15%. Last updated 31 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Real Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Kylian Mbappé F	8.2	90'	1	–	5	39 (31%)	–
5 Jude Bellingham M	7.6	74'	1	–	2	55 (51%)	–
16 Gonzalo García F	7.5	74'	1	–	1	13 (13%)	–
21 Brahim Díaz M	7.3	16'	1	–	1	4 (4%)	–
45 Thiago Pitarch M	7.3	90'	–	2	2	87 (79%)	2
8 Federico Valverde M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	95 (89%)	–
4 David Alaba D	6.9	70'	–	–	1	97 (90%)	–
18 Álvaro Carreras D	6.9	90'	–	1	–	83 (71%)	–
15 Arda Güler M	6.7	16'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
17 Raúl Asencio D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	93 (87%)	–
30 Franco Mastantuono M	6.6	74'	–	–	–	31 (26%)	–
2 Daniel Carvajal D	6.6	84'	–	1	–	52 (44%)	–
19 Dani Ceballos M	6.5	16'	–	–	–	12 (12%)	–
1 Thibaut Courtois G	6.3	90'	–	–	–	54 (51%)	–
24 Dean Huijsen D	6.2	20'	–	–	–	18 (15%)	–
51 Manuel Serrano Salazar D	6.2	8'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	–

Athletic Club

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
25 Urko Izeta F	7.3	16'	1	–	1	2 (2%)	–
11 Gorka Guruzeta F	7.2	74'	1	–	4	21 (13%)	–
9 Iñaki Williams M	6.9	90'	–	2	–	14 (5%)	1
30 Alejandro Rego M	6.7	30'	–	–	–	15 (14%)	–
23 Robert Navarro M	6.5	90'	–	–	1	25 (20%)	–
16 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta M	6.3	60'	–	–	–	23 (15%)	–
15 Íñigo Lekue D	6.3	30'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
5 Yeray Álvarez D	6.2	45'	–	–	–	10 (5%)	–
18 Mikel Jauregizar M	6.2	85'	–	–	–	24 (13%)	4
20 Unai Gómez M	6.0	60'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
19 Adama Boiro D	6.0	90'	–	–	1	16 (14%)	–
2 Andoni Gorosabel D	5.9	45'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
3 Daniel Vivian D	5.7	90'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	3
4 Aitor Paredes D	5.7	90'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	–
27 Alex Padilla G	5.2	90'	–	–	–	31 (11%)	–
6 Mikel Vesga M	—	5'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–

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Confidence Medium (63%)

At a glance

Our lean

Real Madrid to win

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Real Madrid

DWWWW

Athletic Club

WDWLD

Last 3 meetings Real Madrid · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga clash on May 24, 2026, Real Madrid will host Athletic Club at the Santiago Bernabéu. Real Madrid has a strong home record, securing an average of 2.4 goals per game this season, driven by their potent attacking trio. Conversely, Athletic Club has struggled defensively on the road, conceding 1.8 goals per game, which could be a significant vulnerability. Historically, Real Madrid has dominated this fixture, winning 75% of their last 12 encounters. Expect Madrid to leverage their home advantage, aiming for a decisive victory to bolster their title ambitions.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Athletic Club goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	3	3	1
1	9	7	3	1
2	12	9	4	1
3	11	8	3	1
4	7	6	2	1
5	4	3	1

↑ Real Madrid goals · most likely 2–0 (12.2%)

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Head to Head: Real Madrid vs Athletic Club

2 Real Madrid Wins

0 Draws

1 Athletic Club Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
03 Dec 2025	Athletic Club	0 - 3	Real Madrid
20 Apr 2025	Real Madrid	1 - 0	Athletic Club
04 Dec 2024	Athletic Club	2 - 1	Real Madrid

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Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Fiorentina	D	2 - 2
28 Jul	H Leganes	W	2 - 1
23 May	H Athletic Club	W	4 - 2
17 May	A Sevilla	W	0 - 1
14 May	H Oviedo	W	2 - 0

Athletic Club — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
29 Jul	A Racing Santander	W	0 - 3
25 Jul	H Eibar	D	2 - 2
15 Jul	A Derio	W	0 - 3
23 May	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 2
17 May	H Celta Vigo	D	1 - 1

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0