Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 37

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Villarreal

Away

Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

AI call Difficult Villarreal win or draw

22%

25%

53%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal prediction: Sportiko gives Rayo Vallecano a 22% chance of winning, Villarreal 53% and the draw 25%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Rayo Vallecano secured a comfortable 2–0 home victory over Villarreal in matchday 37 of La Liga, despite the visitors dominating much of the statistical picture. Sergio Camello broke the deadlock on 28 minutes with a well-taken finish, giving the hosts a deserved lead at the break. Alemão then struck almost immediately after half-time, converting in the 47th minute to effectively settle the contest early in the second half.

The result was something of an upset on paper — our pre-match AI model had rated a Villarreal win as the most likely outcome at 53%, a call that proved wide of the mark. Villarreal did enjoy the greater share of possession at 53% and registered seven shots on target compared to Rayo's two, but the hosts were ruthlessly efficient, converting from an expected goals tally of just 0.97. Rayo also won nine corners to Villarreal's one, reflecting their territorial resilience in key moments.

Florian Lejeune and Unai López both picked up yellow cards for Villarreal, with López booked and substituted in the same minute, summing up a frustrating afternoon for the away side.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Sergio Camello assist: Andrei Rațiu

28' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⇄ 46'

Tajon Buchanan ⇄ Alfon González

Alemão assist: Oscar Trejo

47' ⚽ 2–0

Florian Lejeune Yellow Card

61' ▮

⇄ 63'

Tani Oluwaseyi ⇄ Gerard Moreno

⇄ 64'

Santi Comesaña ⇄ Thomas Partey

Oscar Trejo ⇄ Pedro Díaz

66' ⇄

⇄ 72'

Pape Gueye ⇄ Dani Parejo

Sergio Camello ⇄ Fran Pérez

73' ⇄

Alemão ⇄ Carlos Martín

74' ⇄

⇄ 77'

Willy Kambwala ⇄ Logan Costa

Josep Chavarría ⇄ Pacha

81' ⇄

Unai López Yellow Card

82' ▮

Unai López ⇄ Abdul Mumin

82' ⇄

▮ 90+6'

Santiago Mouriño Yellow Card

FT 2–0

Rayo Vallecano

Match Stats

Villarreal

53% Ball Possession 47%

1.49 Expected Goals (xG) 0.97

15 Total Shots 11

7 Shots on Goal 2

5 Shots off Goal 4

3 Blocked Shots 5

8 Shots insidebox 6

7 Shots outsidebox 5

1 Corner Kicks 9

1 Offsides 0

12 Fouls 10

2 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 5

474 Total passes 401

405 Passes accurate 338

85% Passes % 84%

-0.21 goals_prevented -0.21

Rayo Vallecano

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
2 Andrei Rațiu D	8.2	90'	–	1	–	44 (36%)	4
24 Florian Lejeune D	8.0	90'	–	–	2	61 (57%)	4
19 Jorge de Frutos M	7.9	90'	–	–	2	22 (14%)	2
10 Sergio Camello M	7.9	73'	1	–	4	25 (19%)	2
8 Oscar Trejo M	7.9	66'	–	1	–	43 (40%)	3
13 Augusto Batalla G	7.7	90'	–	–	–	41 (30%)	–
23 Óscar Valentín M	7.7	90'	–	–	–	37 (33%)	6
6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss D	7.6	90'	–	–	–	56 (51%)	2
9 Alemão F	7.5	74'	1	–	2	6 (4%)	–
3 Josep Chavarría D	7.3	81'	–	–	–	51 (46%)	1
17 Unai López M	7.3	82'	–	–	–	61 (53%)	3
22 Pacha D	7.2	9'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	2
16 Abdul Mumin D	6.9	8'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
4 Pedro Díaz M	6.3	24'	–	–	1	11 (6%)	–
14 Carlos Martín F	6.3	16'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
21 Fran Pérez M	6.3	17'	–	–	1	4 (4%)	1

Villarreal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
25 Arnau Tenas G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	31 (23%)	–
2 Logan Costa D	6.9	13'	–	–	–	12 (12%)	–
14 Santi Comesaña M	6.9	64'	–	–	–	26 (23%)	1
7 Gerard Moreno F	6.9	27'	–	–	–	20 (17%)	–
22 Ayoze Pérez F	6.9	90'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	2
18 Pape Gueye M	6.7	72'	–	–	–	37 (27%)	1
15 Santiago Mouriño D	6.7	90'	–	–	1	48 (43%)	3
10 Dani Parejo M	6.6	18'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	–
17 Tajon Buchanan M	6.5	45'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	2
11 Alfon González F	6.5	45'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	–
21 Tani Oluwaseyi F	6.3	63'	–	–	1	7 (5%)	2
16 Thomas Partey M	6.3	26'	–	–	2	25 (21%)	–
23 Sergi Cardona D	6.2	90'	–	–	2	40 (38%)	2
5 Willy Kambwala D	6.2	77'	–	–	–	35 (30%)	–
4 Rafa Marín D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	31 (26%)	–
20 Alberto Moleiro M	5.6	90'	–	–	–	41 (34%)	1

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Confidence Medium (59%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Villarreal win or draw

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Rayo Vallecano

WDWWD

Villarreal

WWLLD

Last 3 meetings Rayo Vallecano · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga match, Rayo Vallecano hosts Villarreal on May 17, 2026. Rayo Vallecano has shown resilience at home, boasting a strong defensive record with an average of 1.1 goals conceded per game. Conversely, Villarreal's away performance has been inconsistent, with a tendency to struggle against high-pressing teams, averaging 1.2 goals scored away from home. The key battle will be in midfield, where Rayo's ability to disrupt Villarreal's build-up play could be crucial. Overall, this match promises to be tightly contested, with both teams vying for important points as the season approaches its climax.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Villarreal goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	12	10	5	2	1
1	7	12	10	5	2	1
2	4	6	5	2	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Rayo Vallecano goals · most likely 0–1 (12.4%)

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Head to Head: Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal

0 Rayo Vallecano Wins

1 Draws

2 Villarreal Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Nov 2025	Villarreal	4 - 0	Rayo Vallecano
22 Feb 2025	Rayo Vallecano	0 - 1	Villarreal
18 Dec 2024	Villarreal	1 - 1	Rayo Vallecano

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Rayo Vallecano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Charleroi	W	2 - 3
26 Jul	A Feyenoord	D	1 - 1
23 May	A Alaves	W	1 - 2
17 May	H Villarreal	W	2 - 0
14 May	A Valencia	D	1 - 1

Villarreal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jul	A PSV Eindhoven	W	1 - 3
24 May	H Atletico Madrid	W	5 - 1
17 May	A Rayo Vallecano	L	2 - 0
13 May	H Sevilla	L	2 - 3
10 May	A Mallorca	D	1 - 1

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0