Oviedo vs Alaves Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 37

Post on X

Alaves

Away

Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

AI call Alaves or draw

31%

32%

38%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Oviedo vs Alaves prediction: Sportiko gives Oviedo a 31% chance of winning, Alaves 38% and the draw 32%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Alaves claimed all three points at Oviedo thanks to an early Toni Martínez goal, the striker finding the net in the 17th minute to give the visitors a lead they would protect for the remainder of the contest. The scoreline remained 0–1 at the interval, with Alaves already in control of the tempo.

The second half saw both sides ring the changes, with a combined ten substitutions across the two teams as managers looked to either consolidate or find a breakthrough. Oviedo collected three yellow cards — shown to Thiago Fernández, Federico Viñas, and Lucas Ahijado — reflecting the frustration of a side unable to convert their pressure into clear opportunities. The home side actually posted the higher expected goals figure of 1.46 compared to Alaves's 0.45, yet managed just one shot on target all match.

Alaves's disciplined defensive display, backed by 70 percent possession, proved sufficient to see out a narrow but deserved victory. The result aligned with the pre-match assessment from our AI model, which had identified an Alaves win as the most probable outcome at 38 percent.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 17'

Toni Martínez assist: Abderrahman Rebbach

HT 0–1

Nicolas Fonseca ⇄ Thiago Fernández

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

Abderrahman Rebbach ⇄ Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim

Thiago Fernández Yellow Card

48' ▮

Federico Viñas Yellow Card

65' ▮

Santiago Colombatto ⇄ Ilyas Chaira

66' ⇄

⇄ 68'

Ibrahim Diabaté

⇄ 69'

Denis Suarez ⇄ Pablo Ibáñez

Lucas Ahijado Yellow Card

71' ▮

Haissem Hassan ⇄ Thiago Borbas

79' ⇄

Federico Viñas ⇄ Álex Forés

79' ⇄

⇄ 82'

Toni Martínez ⇄ Lucas Boyé

Lucas Ahijado ⇄ Nacho Vidal

85' ⇄

⇄ 87'

Jon Guridi ⇄ Carlos Benavídez

▮ 90+4'

Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim Yellow Card

FT 0–1

Oviedo

Match Stats

Alaves

70% Ball Possession 30%

0.45 Expected Goals (xG) 1.46

8 Total Shots 7

0 Shots on Goal 1

5 Shots off Goal 4

3 Blocked Shots 2

5 Shots insidebox 5

3 Shots outsidebox 2

5 Corner Kicks 2

Offsides

13 Fouls 18

3 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

553 Total passes 248

488 Passes accurate 177

88% Passes % 71%

0.00 goals_prevented 0.00

Oviedo

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Santi Cazorla M	7.6	90'	–	–	–	65 (59%)	3
12 Dani Calvo D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	68 (66%)	2
5 Alberto Reina M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	51 (45%)	1
10 Haissem Hassan M	6.9	79'	–	–	–	26 (22%)	–
11 Santiago Colombatto M	6.9	66'	–	–	–	51 (49%)	1
4 David Costas D	6.9	90'	–	–	2	62 (55%)	–
9 Federico Viñas F	6.7	79'	–	–	1	19 (14%)	1
23 Nicolas Fonseca M	6.7	45'	–	–	–	31 (26%)	1
17 Thiago Borbas F	6.7	11'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
22 Nacho Vidal D	6.6	10'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
7 Ilyas Chaira F	6.6	24'	–	–	1	7 (6%)	–
15 Thiago Fernández F	6.5	45'	–	–	–	17 (14%)	1
1 Horațiu Moldovan G	6.5	90'	–	–	–	35 (30%)	–
19 Álex Forés F	6.3	11'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
24 Lucas Ahijado D	6.2	85'	–	–	1	52 (44%)	–
25 Javi López D	5.6	90'	–	–	–	58 (48%)	–

Alaves

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
21 Abderrahman Rebbach M	7.6	45'	–	1	–	12 (6%)	2
7 Ángel Pérez M	7.3	90'	–	–	1	14 (10%)	1
24 Victor Parada D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	–
14 Nahuel Tenaglia D	7.2	90'	–	–	2	21 (18%)	4
18 Jon Guridi M	7.2	87'	–	–	1	25 (23%)	3
16 Ville Koski D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	20 (17%)	1
1 Antonio Sivera G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	32 (18%)	–
3 Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim D	6.9	45'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	2
19 Pablo Ibáñez M	6.9	21'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	4
4 Denis Suarez M	6.7	69'	–	–	–	19 (13%)	1
23 Carlos Benavídez M	6.7	8'	–	–	–	4 (1%)	–
8 Antonio Blanco M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	32 (23%)	2
34 Aitor Mañas F	6.5	22'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
22 Ibrahim Diabaté F	6.3	68'	–	–	–	11 (4%)	1
11 Toni Martínez F	6.2	82'	1	–	1	14 (8%)	–
15 Lucas Boyé F	6.2	8'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–

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Confidence Medium (50%)

At a glance

Our lean

Alaves or draw

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Oviedo

LWDLL

Alaves

DWLWW

Last 1 meetings Oviedo · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

In this La Liga clash, Oviedo will host Alaves on May 17, 2026. Oviedo has shown resilience at home, with a strong defensive record, conceding an average of just 1 goal per game in their last five home fixtures. Conversely, Alaves has struggled on the road, managing only 1 win in their last five away matches. Both teams are fighting to solidify their positions in the league, making this a crucial encounter. Key players to watch include Oviedo's top scorer, who will be pivotal in breaking down Alaves' defense, which has been inconsistent this season. Expect a tightly contested match with both teams aiming for critical points.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Alaves goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	15	15	8	3	1
1	13	13	7	2	1
2	6	6	3	1
3	2	2	1
4
5

↑ Oviedo goals · most likely 0–1 (15.1%)

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Head to Head: Oviedo vs Alaves

0 Oviedo Wins

1 Draws

0 Alaves Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Jan 2026	Alaves	1 - 1	Oviedo

Oviedo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A 1. FC Nürnberg	L	2 - 1
29 Jul	H Ponferradina	W	4 - 0
25 Jul	H Deportivo La Coruna	D	0 - 0
23 May	A Mallorca	L	3 - 0
17 May	H Alaves	L	0 - 1

Alaves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Aug	A Racing Santander	D	1 - 1
25 Jul	A Girona	W	0 - 1
23 May	H Rayo Vallecano	L	1 - 2
17 May	A Oviedo	W	0 - 1
13 May	H Barcelona	W	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0