Sevilla vs Real Madrid Prediction
Sevilla vs Real Madrid prediction: Sportiko gives Sevilla a 8% chance of winning, Real Madrid 77% and the draw 15%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Real Madrid secured a narrow but deserved victory at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, with Vinícius Júnior's 15th-minute strike proving the decisive moment. The Brazilian latched on to his opportunity early and gave the visitors a lead they would protect for the entirety of the contest, heading into half-time with the advantage intact.
Sevilla dominated possession in the second half and generated the greater volume of shots — 14 in total compared to Real Madrid's 12 — yet managed only a single shot on target fewer than the visitors, whose expected goals figure of 1.00 edged Sevilla's 0.72 despite the home side's pressure. Gudelj's yellow card shortly after the restart led to his immediate substitution, disrupting Sevilla's midfield, while a flurry of bookings late on — Alexis Sánchez, Juanlu Sánchez, and Agoumé — reflected growing frustration from the hosts.
Real Madrid managed the game efficiently through their substitutions, withdrawing Vinícius and Tchouaméni in the second half as the result was well in hand. The pre-match AI model had rated a Real Madrid win as the most likely outcome at 77%, a call that proved accurate as Carlo Ancelotti's side collected three points on the road.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Sevilla
Match Stats
Sevilla
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 Andres Castrin D | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 31 (28%) | 4 |
| 20 Djibril Sow M | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 42 (38%) | 5 |
| 4 Kike Salas D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 37 (28%) | 6 |
| 18 Lucien Agoumé M | 7.2 | 36' | – | – | – | 20 (17%) | 3 |
| 2 José Ángel Carmona D | 7.0 | 70' | – | – | – | 28 (25%) | 1 |
| 21 Chidera Ejuke F | 7.0 | 36' | – | – | – | 15 (12%) | 1 |
| 1 Odysseas Vlachodimos G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (18%) | – |
| 36 Oso M | 6.9 | 78' | – | – | 2 | 20 (15%) | – |
| 9 Akor Adams F | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 16 (9%) | 1 |
| 16 Juanlu Sánchez M | 6.7 | 20' | – | – | – | 13 (9%) | – |
| 12 Gabriel Suazo D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 44 (37%) | 1 |
| 11 Rubén Vargas M | 6.6 | 54' | – | – | 1 | 15 (11%) | 2 |
| 7 Isaac Romero F | 6.6 | 12' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | – |
| 6 Nemanja Gudelj M | 6.3 | 54' | – | – | – | 20 (14%) | 1 |
| 10 Alexis Sánchez F | 6.3 | 37' | – | – | – | 15 (9%) | – |
| 17 Neal Maupay F | 6.3 | 53' | – | – | 2 | 13 (12%) | – |
Real Madrid
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Thibaut Courtois G | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 60 (48%) | – |
| 14 Aurélien Tchouaméni M | 7.5 | 70' | – | – | – | 51 (45%) | 3 |
| 24 Dean Huijsen D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 73 (67%) | – |
| 7 Vinícius Júnior F | 7.3 | 77' | 1 | – | 2 | 22 (16%) | – |
| 2 Daniel Carvajal D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 41 (37%) | 1 |
| 22 Antonio Rüdiger D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 66 (61%) | 2 |
| 5 Jude Bellingham M | 7.2 | 87' | – | – | – | 33 (28%) | 5 |
| 6 Eduardo Camavinga M | 6.7 | 20' | – | – | – | 9 (8%) | 1 |
| 30 Franco Mastantuono F | 6.7 | 20' | – | – | 1 | 6 (6%) | – |
| 21 Brahim Díaz F | 6.6 | 77' | – | – | – | 29 (26%) | – |
| 12 Trent Alexander-Arnold D | 6.6 | 13' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 20 Fran García D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 45 (37%) | – |
| 16 Gonzalo García F | 6.3 | 13' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
| 45 Thiago Pitarch M | 6.2 | 70' | – | – | 1 | 55 (51%) | – |
| 10 Kylian Mbappé F | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 31 (27%) | – |
| 46 Alvaro Leiva F | — | 3' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Sevilla vs Real Madrid
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec 2025 | Real Madrid | 2 - 0 | Sevilla |
| 18 May 2025 | Sevilla | 0 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Real Madrid | 4 - 2 | Sevilla |
Sevilla — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug | A Utrecht | W | 0 - 1 |
| 31 Jul | A NEC Nijmegen | W | 1 - 2 |
| 26 Jul | H AD Ceuta FC | W | 2 - 1 |
| 23 Jul | A Cordoba | D | 0 - 0 |
| 19 Jul | A Cracovia Krakow | L | 1 - 0 |
Real Madrid — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Aug | H Fiorentina | D | 2 - 2 |
| 28 Jul | H Leganes | W | 2 - 1 |
| 23 May | H Athletic Club | W | 4 - 2 |
| 17 May | A Sevilla | W | 0 - 1 |
| 14 May | H Oviedo | W | 2 - 0 |
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Athletic Club
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |
Atletico Madrid
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |
Osasuna
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |
Alaves
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |
Elche
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |
Barcelona
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |
Getafe
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |
Levante
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |
Malaga
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
Racing Santander
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |
Celta Vigo
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
Deportivo La Coruna
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |
Espanyol
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |
Real Betis
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |
Real Madrid
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |
Real Sociedad
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
Sevilla
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |
Valencia
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
Villarreal
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sevilla
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: Luis Garcia Plaza
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | O. Vlachodimos | G |
| 2 | J. A. Carmona | D |
| 32 | Castrin | D |
| 4 | K. Salas | D |
| 12 | G. Suazo | D |
| 11 | R. Vargas | M |
| 6 | N. Gudelj | M |
| 20 | D. Sow | M |
| 36 | Oso | M |
| 9 | A. Adams | F |
| 17 | N. Maupay | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | O. Nyland | G |
| 3 | C. Azpilicueta | D |
| 10 | A. Sanchez | F |
| 21 | C. Ejuke | F |
| 18 | L. Agoume | M |
| 5 | T. Nianzou | D |
| 15 | F. Cardoso | D |
| 8 | Joan Jordan | M |
| 19 | B. Mendy | M |
| 14 | Peque | F |
| 16 | J. Sanchez | M |
| 7 | I. Romero | F |
Real Madrid
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | T. Courtois | G |
| 2 | D. Carvajal | D |
| 22 | A. Rudiger | D |
| 24 | D. Huijsen | D |
| 20 | F. Garcia | D |
| 5 | J. Bellingham | M |
| 14 | A. Tchouameni | M |
| 45 | T. Pitarch | M |
| 21 | B. Diaz | F |
| 10 | K. Mbappe | F |
| 7 | Vinicius Junior | F |
Substitutes
| 43 | S. Mestre | G |
| 29 | J. Navarro Jimenez | G |
| 4 | D. Alaba | D |
| 6 | E. Camavinga | M |
| 18 | A. Carreras | D |
| 30 | F. Mastantuono | F |
| 12 | T. Alexander-Arnold | D |
| 46 | A. Leiva | F |
| 17 | R. Asencio | D |
| 16 | G. Garcia | F |
| 47 | D. Mesonero | - |