Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 37

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Celta Vigo

Away

AI call Too close to call

38%

26%

36%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo prediction: Sportiko gives Athletic Club a 38% chance of winning, Celta Vigo 36% and the draw 26%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Athletic Club and Celta Vigo shared the spoils in a 1–1 draw at San Mamés on matchday 37 of La Liga, though the result flattered the visitors considerably. Celta struck early through Williot Swedberg in the fourth minute, and despite Athletic dominating possession and territory for much of the first half, they could not find an equaliser before the break. The hosts finished with 27 total shots to Celta's three and an expected goals figure of 2.49 against just 0.15 for the away side — a statistical mismatch that underlined how one-sided the contest was in practical terms.

Athletic finally drew level shortly after the restart when Iñaki Williams converted in the 52nd minute, and the home side continued to press for a winner without success. Both teams made a flurry of substitutions in the second half, and a yellow card for Aymeric Laporte added some late tension, but neither side could find a decisive moment.

Our pre-match AI model rated an Athletic Club win as the most likely outcome at 38%, a call that was left unsettled by a resolute Celta rearguard that produced little going forward yet escaped with a point.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 4'

Williot Swedberg assist: Ilaix Moriba

▮ 10'

Javier Rueda Yellow Card

Yuri Berchiche Yellow Card

38' ▮

▮ 42'

Ionuț Radu Yellow Card

HT 0–1

Unai Gómez ⇄ Robert Navarro

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

Javier Rueda ⇄ Óscar Mingueza

Iñaki Williams assist: Yuri Berchiche

52' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 59'

Borja Iglesias ⇄ Iago Aspas

⇄ 59'

Ferran Jutglà ⇄ Pablo Durán

Aymeric Laporte Yellow Card

68' ▮

Mikel Jauregizar ⇄ Alejandro Rego

71' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Williot Swedberg ⇄ Hugo Álvarez

Álex Berenguer ⇄ Nico Serrano

82' ⇄

Gorka Guruzeta ⇄ Maroan Sannadi

82' ⇄

Iñaki Williams ⇄ Urko Izeta

86' ⇄

⇄ 90+1'

Fer López ⇄ Matías Vecino

FT 1–1

Athletic Club

Match Stats

Celta Vigo

58% Ball Possession 42%

2.49 Expected Goals (xG) 0.15

27 Total Shots 3

9 Shots on Goal 2

14 Shots off Goal 0

4 Blocked Shots 1

19 Shots insidebox 1

8 Shots outsidebox 2

5 Corner Kicks 0

1 Offsides 4

14 Fouls 11

2 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 8

528 Total passes 392

448 Passes accurate 309

85% Passes % 79%

0.73 goals_prevented 0.73

Athletic Club

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Yuri Berchiche D	9.2	90'	–	1	1	77 (71%)	–
16 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta M	7.6	90'	–	–	–	79 (69%)	–
23 Robert Navarro M	7.3	45'	–	–	–	29 (26%)	–
2 Andoni Gorosabel D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	52 (48%)	2
5 Yeray Álvarez D	7.0	90'	–	–	1	65 (58%)	–
22 Nico Serrano F	7.0	8'	–	–	1	8 (7%)	1
9 Iñaki Williams M	6.9	86'	1	–	6	17 (11%)	1
30 Alejandro Rego M	6.9	19'	–	–	1	19 (19%)	2
1 Unai Simón G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	25 (12%)	–
14 Aymeric Laporte D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	67 (60%)	1
7 Álex Berenguer M	6.3	82'	–	–	1	29 (23%)	1
21 Maroan Sannadi F	6.3	8'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
18 Mikel Jauregizar M	6.2	71'	–	–	4	28 (22%)	–
20 Unai Gómez M	6.2	45'	–	–	5	8 (7%)	1
25 Urko Izeta F	6.2	11'	–	–	1	2 (2%)	–
11 Gorka Guruzeta F	5.9	82'	–	–	2	19 (10%)	–

Celta Vigo

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
13 Ionuț Radu G	7.5	90'	–	–	–	35 (15%)	–
19 Williot Swedberg F	7.3	74'	1	–	1	9 (6%)	1
32 Javi Rodríguez D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	52 (44%)	1
20 Marcos Alonso D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	55 (51%)	–
6 Ilaix Moriba M	6.9	90'	–	1	–	37 (34%)	5
8 Fer López M	6.9	89'	–	–	1	39 (34%)	2
10 Iago Aspas F	6.9	31'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	1
18 Pablo Durán F	6.7	31'	–	–	–	9 (6%)	2
23 Hugo Álvarez M	6.7	16'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
5 Sergio Carreira M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	42 (32%)	1
9 Ferran Jutglà F	6.5	59'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	1
7 Borja Iglesias F	6.3	59'	–	–	–	11 (6%)	–
3 Óscar Mingueza D	6.3	45'	–	–	–	23 (19%)	1
17 Javier Rueda M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	11 (7%)	1
29 Yoel Lago D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	35 (27%)	2
15 Matías Vecino M	—	1'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

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Confidence Medium (57%)

At a glance

Our lean

Too close to call

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Athletic Club

WDWLD

Celta Vigo

WWWDL

Last 3 meetings Athletic Club · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga clash, Athletic Club hosts Celta Vigo on May 17, 2026. Athletic Club has a strong home record, boasting a win rate of around 65% at San Mamés this season, with key players like Iñaki Williams contributing significantly to their attack. Celta Vigo, while showing resilience, has struggled on the road with only 30% of their away matches resulting in victories. Their reliance on Iago Aspas for goals could be a decisive factor, but they will need to improve their defensive solidity, having conceded an average of 2 goals per away game. Expect a tightly contested match, with Athletic likely to leverage their home advantage.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Celta Vigo goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	9	6	3	1
1	10	13	8	3	1
2	7	8	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Athletic Club goals · most likely 1–1 (12.5%)

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Head to Head: Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo

2 Athletic Club Wins

0 Draws

1 Celta Vigo Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Dec 2025	Celta Vigo	2 - 0	Athletic Club
19 Jan 2025	Celta Vigo	1 - 2	Athletic Club
22 Sep 2024	Athletic Club	3 - 1	Celta Vigo

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Athletic Club — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
29 Jul	A Racing Santander	W	0 - 3
25 Jul	H Eibar	D	2 - 2
15 Jul	A Derio	W	0 - 3
23 May	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 2
17 May	H Celta Vigo	D	1 - 1

Celta Vigo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Aug	A Sassuolo	W	1 - 4
25 Jul	H Sporting Gijon	W	1 - 0
23 May	H Sevilla	W	1 - 0
17 May	A Athletic Club	D	1 - 1
12 May	H Levante	L	2 - 3

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Athletic Club

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Ernesto Valverde

1 Simon

17 Berchiche

14 Laporte

5 Alvarez

2 Gorosabel

18 Jauregizar

16 Galarreta

7 Berenguer

20 Gomez

9 Williams

11 Guruzeta

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	U. Simon	G
2	A. Gorosabel	D
5	Y. Alvarez	D
14	A. Laporte	D
17	Y. Berchiche	D
16	I. Ruiz de Galarreta	M
18	M. Jauregizar	M
9	I. Williams	M
20	U. Gomez	M
7	A. Berenguer	M
11	G. Guruzeta	F

Substitutes

27	A. Padilla	G
15	I. Lekue	D
12	J. Areso	D
23	R. Navarro	M
4	A. Paredes	D
22	N. Serrano	F
30	A. Rego	M
6	M. Vesga	M
25	Izeta	F
19	A. Boiro	D
21	M. Sannadi	F
44	S. Sanchez	M

Celta Vigo

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Claudio Giraldez

13 Radu

20 Alonso

29 Lago

32 Rodriguez

5 Carreira

6 Moriba

8 Lopez

17 Rueda

19 Swedberg

7 Iglesias

9 Jutgla

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	I. Radu	G
32	J. Rodriguez	D
29	Y. Lago	D
20	M. Alonso	D
17	J. Rueda	M
8	F. Lopez	M
6	I. Moriba	M
5	S. Carreira	M
9	F. Jutgla	F
7	B. Iglesias	F
19	W. Swedberg	F

Substitutes

1	I. Villar	G
15	M. Vecino	M
39	J. El Abdellaoui	F
12	M. Fernandez	D
10	I. Aspas	F
21	M. Ristic	D
4	J. Aidoo	D
3	O. Mingueza	D
14	A. Nunez	D
22	H. Sotelo	M
18	P. Duran	F
23	H. Alvarez	M