Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 36

Post on X

Atletico Madrid

Away

AI call Atletico Madrid or draw

28%

23%

49%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid prediction: Sportiko gives Osasuna a 28% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid 49% and the draw 23%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Atletico Madrid claimed a hard-fought 2–1 victory at Osasuna in La Liga matchday 36, with the visitors dominant for much of the contest. Atletico took the lead as early as the 15th minute through a penalty converted by Ademola Lookman, awarded after VAR confirmed a foul on Antoine Griezmann. The visitors controlled possession at 59% and generated 23 total shots across the 90 minutes, reflecting their clear territorial superiority throughout.

The second half grew increasingly fractious, with yellow cards distributed freely to both sides. Osasuna levelled through Alexander Sørloth on 71 minutes, briefly threatening an equaliser, but Atletico's numerical advantage was soon restored when Marcos Llorente was dismissed with a second yellow card on 79 minutes. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Atletico win as the most likely outcome at 49%, a call that proved correct.

Osasuna grabbed a late consolation through Kike Barja in stoppage time, but it was not enough to salvage a point. Atletico's xG of 2.30 against Osasuna's 1.56 underlined their overall superiority, as Simeone's side secured a valuable three points in the title race.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

🖵 13'

Antoine Griezmann Penalty confirmed

Javi Galán Yellow Card

14' ▮

⚽ 0–1 15'

Ademola Lookman Penalty

⇄ 18'

Rodrigo Mendoza ⇄ Robin Le Normand

Rubén García Yellow Card

30' ▮

Raúl Moro ⇄ Kike Barja

37' ⇄

Ante Budimir Penalty cancelled

45+3' 🖵

Ante Budimir Yellow Card

45+9' ▮

HT 0–1

⇄ 46'

Thiago Almada ⇄ Alexander Sørloth

▮ 52'

Marcos Llorente Yellow Card

Kike Barja Yellow Card

57' ▮

▮ 57'

Koke Yellow Card

▮ 59'

Marc Pubill Yellow Card

Rubén García ⇄ Raúl García de Haro

60' ⇄

Javi Galán ⇄ Abel Bretones

60' ⇄

⚽ 0–2 71'

Alexander Sørloth assist: Marcos Llorente

Lucas Torró ⇄ Aimar Oroz

72' ⇄

Moi Gómez ⇄ Asier Osambela

72' ⇄

▮ 79'

Marcos Llorente Yellow Card

▮ 79'

Marcos Llorente Red Card

⇄ 82'

Ademola Lookman ⇄ Clément Lenglet

Alejandro Catena Yellow Card

85' ▮

▮ 85'

Robin Le Normand Yellow Card

Kike Barja assist: Raúl García de Haro

90' ⚽ 1–2

Flavien Boyomo Yellow Card

90+2' ▮

FT 1–2

Osasuna

Match Stats

Atletico Madrid

59% Ball Possession 41%

2.30 Expected Goals (xG) 1.56

23 Total Shots 5

5 Shots on Goal 4

14 Shots off Goal 1

4 Blocked Shots 0

18 Shots insidebox 4

5 Shots outsidebox 1

8 Corner Kicks 4

0 Offsides 2

15 Fouls 12

6 Yellow Cards 5

0 Red Cards 1

2 Goalkeeper Saves 4

480 Total passes 358

417 Passes accurate 287

87% Passes % 80%

0.20 goals_prevented 0.20

Osasuna

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Kike Barja F	8.5	53'	1	–	3	16 (14%)	–
16 Moi Gómez M	7.5	72'	–	–	–	53 (47%)	3
19 Valentin Rosier D	7.3	90'	–	–	2	58 (52%)	1
7 Jon Moncayola M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	51 (44%)	1
9 Raúl García de Haro F	7.0	30'	–	1	–	11 (7%)	1
13 Aitor Fernández G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	27 (19%)	–
24 Alejandro Catena D	6.7	90'	–	–	1	56 (54%)	2
6 Lucas Torró M	6.7	72'	–	–	2	39 (31%)	2
10 Aimar Oroz M	6.5	18'	–	–	1	11 (10%)	–
23 Abel Bretones D	6.5	30'	–	–	–	13 (13%)	–
20 Javi Galán D	6.3	60'	–	–	–	31 (29%)	1
14 Rubén García M	6.3	60'	–	–	1	29 (24%)	1
18 Raúl Moro M	6.2	37'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	–
22 Flavien Boyomo D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	53 (50%)	–
29 Asier Osambela M	6.2	18'	–	–	2	14 (8%)	–
17 Ante Budimir F	5.9	90'	–	–	7	10 (8%)	–

Atletico Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Juan Musso G	8.0	90'	–	–	–	39 (25%)	–
14 Marcos Llorente D	7.6	79'	–	–	–	18 (14%)	7
22 Ademola Lookman F	7.5	82'	1	–	1	28 (22%)	1
21 Obed Vargas M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	28 (22%)	2
9 Alexander Sørloth F	7.2	45'	1	–	2	14 (10%)	–
18 Marc Pubill D	7.0	90'	–	–	1	22 (19%)	3
17 Dávid Hancko D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	47 (38%)	–
7 Antoine Griezmann F	6.9	90'	–	–	–	37 (31%)	–
11 Thiago Almada M	6.7	45'	–	–	–	15 (13%)	1
24 Robin Le Normand D	6.6	72'	–	–	–	21 (16%)	–
15 Clément Lenglet D	6.5	8'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
4 Rodrigo Mendoza M	6.5	18'	–	–	1	4 (2%)	–
6 Koke M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	47 (42%)	1
3 Matteo Ruggeri D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	36 (32%)	–

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Confidence Medium (59%)

At a glance

Our lean

Atletico Madrid or draw

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Osasuna

DLLLW

Atletico Madrid

WWWLL

Last 3 meetings Osasuna · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga clash on May 13, 2026, Osasuna will host Atletico Madrid at El Sadar. Osasuna, known for their strong home record, will rely on their solid defensive setup, having conceded only 22 goals this season. However, they face a formidable challenge against Atletico, who sit in the top three of the league and boast one of the highest goal-scoring records, averaging 2.1 goals per match. The key battle will likely be in midfield, where Atletico's dominance could dictate the pace of the game. Expect a tactical encounter with Osasuna aiming to stifle Atletico's attack while seeking opportunities on the counter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Atletico Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	8	7	4	2	1
1	6	11	10	6	3	1
2	4	7	6	4	2	1
3	2	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1	1
5

↑ Osasuna goals · most likely 1–1 (10.6%)

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Players in form

Osasuna

A. Budimir 5 gls

Atletico Madrid

Álex Baena 4 gls

J. David 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid

1 Osasuna Wins

0 Draws

2 Atletico Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
16 Sep 2026	Atletico Madrid	4 - 0	Osasuna
18 Oct 2025	Atletico Madrid	1 - 0	Osasuna
15 May 2025	Osasuna	2 - 0	Atletico Madrid

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Osasuna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	4 - 0
12 Sep	H Espanyol	L	0 - 2
06 Sep	A Alaves	L	5 - 2
31 Aug	H Getafe	W	1 - 0

Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Madrid	W	2 - 1
16 Sep	H Osasuna	W	4 - 0
13 Sep	A Real Sociedad	W	0 - 3
09 Sep	A Liverpool	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Athletic Club	L	3 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3