Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo Prediction

Taça de Portugal · 1/128-finals

Post on X

Oliveirense

Home

4 : 0

HT 3 - 0

Penalva Castelo

Away

Estádio Carlos Osório, Oliveira de Azeméis

AI call Oliveirense to win

86%

10%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo prediction: Sportiko gives Oliveirense a 86% chance of winning, Penalva Castelo 4% and the draw 10%. Last updated 29 Aug 2026, 17:00.

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Confidence High (86%)

At a glance

Our lean

Oliveirense to win

Most likely score

2:0 · 10.3%

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

70%

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Oliveirense

LWLWW

Penalva Castelo

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Penalva Castelo goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	3	1	1
1	6	7	3	1
2	10	9	4	1
3	10	9	4	1
4	7	6	3	1
5	4	4	2

↑ Oliveirense goals · most likely 2–0 (10.3%)

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Match Result

Home Win

86%

Draw

10%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

97%

11%

1.5

89%

30%

2.5

70%

52%

3.5

48%

73%

4.5

27%

88%

5.5

12%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

86%

Draw

10%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

89% Home (No Draw) 11% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

54% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

75% Home Scores More 16% Equal Goals 9% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

97%

11%

1.5

89%

30%

2.5

70%

52%

3.5

48%

73%

4.5

27%

88%

5.5

12%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Exact Goals

19%

22%

21%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	1.4%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%
1	6.4%	7.3%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%
2	10.3%	9.2%	4.2%	1.3%	0.3%
3	9.8%	8.8%	4.0%	1.2%	0.3%
4	7.0%	6.3%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

48%

1.5

52%

76%

2.5

24%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

20%

29%

28%

15%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

38%

1.5

62%

67%

2.5

33%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

14%

24%

28%

19%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Oliveirense	Draw	Penalva Castelo
Oliveirense	54.2%	2.7%	0.8%
Draw	19.9%	8.8%	3.2%
Penalva Castelo	3.2%	2.7%	4.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

24%

1.5

76%

49%

2.5

51%

73%

3.5

27%

Home Exact Goals

18%

25%

24%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

63%

1.5

37%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

41%

37%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Oliveirense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Penafiel	L	1 - 2
12 Sep	H Mafra	W	2 - 1
06 Sep	A Atlético CP	L	3 - 1
29 Aug	H Penalva Castelo	W	4 - 0
23 Aug	H Vitória de Sernache	W	3 - 2

Penalva Castelo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
29 Aug	A Oliveirense	L	4 - 0

Taça de Portugal Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.