FC Thun vs Lech Poznan Prediction

UEFA Europa League · Play-offs

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FC Thun

Home

2 : 2

HT 2 - 1

1st leg 0-7 · Aggregate 2-9

Lech Poznan

Away

AI call Lech Poznan or draw

34%

25%

40%

Home Win Draw Away Win

FC Thun vs Lech Poznan prediction: Sportiko gives FC Thun a 34% chance of winning, Lech Poznan 40% and the draw 25%. Last updated 27 Aug 2026, 19:52.

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1st Half Over 0.5 73%

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Match Report

FC Thun and Lech Poznan played out a lively 2–2 draw in their UEFA Europa League play-off encounter, with the Polish side coming from behind to level late on. Lech made a bright start, with Robert Gumny opening the scoring in the 17th minute, only for Thun to respond swiftly through Simon Lengen five minutes later. The Swiss hosts then took control when Furkan Dursun struck in the 43rd minute to give them a 2–1 lead at the break.

The second half saw Lech push for an equaliser, and it arrived through Patrik Wålemark in the 68th minute, cancelling out Thun's advantage and leaving the tie finely poised. The match was not short of incident, with five yellow cards distributed across both sides and a flurry of substitutions shaping the contest's closing stages.

The draw keeps both sides in contention ahead of the second leg. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lech Poznan win as the most likely outcome at 40%, and the visitors will feel they did enough to justify that assessment by salvaging a valuable away point.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 17'

Robert Gumny assist: Luis Palma

Simon Lengen assist: Furkan Dursun

22' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 26'

Daniel Håkans ⇄ Patrik Wålemark

Nico Maier Yellow Card

32' ▮

▮ 40'

Gustav Berggren Yellow Card

Furkan Dursun assist: Nico Maier

43' ⚽ 2–1

HT 2–1

Tom Strannegård ⇄ Fabio Fehr

46' ⇄

⇄ Justin Roth

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

Antoni Kozubal ⇄ Radosław Murawski

▮ 53'

Patrik Wålemark Yellow Card

Nico Maier ⇄ Adam Ilic

56' ⇄

Furkan Dursun ⇄ Riccardo Braschi

61' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Allahyar Sayyadmanesh ⇄ Pablo Rodríguez

⚽ 2–2 68'

Patrik Wålemark assist: Mateusz Lis

Simon Lengen ⇄ Nils Reichmuth

73' ⇄

Louis Passavant Yellow Card

75' ▮

⇄ 80'

Wojciech Mońka ⇄ Terry Yegbe

⇄ 80'

Yannick Agnero ⇄ Filip Jagiełło

▮ 90+1'

Mateusz Skrzypczak Yellow Card

FT 2–2

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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Our lean

Lech Poznan or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.6%

Both teams to score

66%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

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FC Thun

WLLLD

Lech Poznan

WLLWW

Last 1 meetings FC Thun · 0W 0D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lech Poznan goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	5	5	3	1
1	5	12	9	5	2	1
2	5	8	7	4	2	1
3	3	4	4	2	1
4	1	2	1	1
5		1

↑ FC Thun goals · most likely 1–1 (11.6%)

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Home Win

34%

Draw

25%

Both Teams To Score

66% BTTS Yes 34% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

15%

1.5

85%

37%

2.5

63%

59%

3.5

41%

78%

4.5

22%

90%

5.5

10%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Home Win

34%

Draw

25%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

52% Away (No Draw) 48% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Away Win by 2+ 18% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

39% Away Scores More 35% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

15%

1.5

85%

37%

2.5

63%

59%

3.5

41%

78%

4.5

22%

90%

5.5

10%

Both Teams To Score

66% BTTS Yes 34% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

22%

18%

12%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.2%	5.1%	5.4%	3.0%	1.3%
1	4.8%	11.6%	8.6%	4.8%	2.0%
2	4.9%	8.2%	6.9%	3.9%	1.6%
3	2.6%	4.4%	3.7%	2.1%	0.9%
4	1.0%	1.8%	1.5%	0.8%	0.4%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

41%

1.5

59%

70%

2.5

30%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

16%

25%

29%

17%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FC Thun	Draw	Lech Poznan
FC Thun	18.9%	4.1%	2.4%
Draw	14.0%	14.7%	13.2%
Lech Poznan	3.2%	5.3%	24.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

53%

1.5

47%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

33%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

50%

1.5

50%

77%

2.5

23%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

19%

32%

27%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: FC Thun vs Lech Poznan

0 FC Thun Wins

0 Draws

1 Lech Poznan Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
20 Aug 2026	Lech Poznan	7 - 0	FC Thun

FC Thun — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A FC Vaduz	W	1 - 2
16 Sep	H Servette FC	L	2 - 4
12 Sep	H Grasshoppers	L	0 - 1
06 Sep	A FC Sion	L	3 - 2
02 Sep	H Lausanne	D	0 - 0

Lech Poznan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Radomiak Radom	W	5 - 1
17 Sep	A Crystal Palace	L	4 - 0
12 Sep	A Gornik Zabrze	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Raków Częstochowa	W	1 - 0
03 Sep	H Jagiellonia	W	2 - 1

UEFA Europa League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Juventus	1	1	0	0	5	0	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	4	0	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	1	0	0	4	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	1	0	0	4	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	1	0	0	3	0	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	1	0	0	3	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
9	OFI	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
28	Celtic	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
30	AC Milan	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
31	Celje	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
32	Marseille	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0
34	Plzen	1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0

Lech Poznan

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Niels Frederiksen

1 Lis

15 Gurgul

72 Skrzypczak

27 Mońka

20 Gumny

4 Berggren

43 Kozubal

11 Håkans

77 Palma

17 Sayyadmanesh

7 Agnero

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Mateusz Lis	G
20	Robert Gumny	D
27	Wojciech Mońka	D
72	Mateusz Skrzypczak	D
15	Michal Gurgul	D
43	Antoni Kozubal	M
4	Gustav Berggren	M
17	Allahyar Sayyadmanesh	M
77	Luis Palma	M
11	Daniel Håkans	M
7	Yannick Agnero	F

Substitutes

31	Wiktor Obremski	G
35	Mateusz Pruchniewski	G
59	Terry Yegbe	D
2	Joel Pereira	D
24	Filip Jagiełło	M
53	Karol Delikat	M
22	Radosław Murawski	M
10	Patrik Wålemark	M
21	Pablo Rodríguez	M
56	Wojciech Szymczak	F

FC Thun

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian

25 Spycher

16 Strannegård

23 Bürki

54 Passavant

37 Dähler

21 Derbaci

13 Zoukit

8 Saiz

30 Maier

9 Dursun

80 Lengen

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
25	Tim Spycher	G
37	Lucien Dähler	D
54	Louis Passavant	D
23	Marco Bürki	D
16	Tom Strannegård	D
30	Nico Maier	F
8	Fabio Saiz	M
13	Nassim Zoukit	M
21	Dorian Derbaci	M
80	Simon Lengen	F
9	Furkan Dursun	F

Substitutes

1	Niklas Steffen	G
22	Dario Walti	G
5	Nicolas Bürgy	D
19	Jan Bamert	D
47	Fabio Fehr	D
16	Justin Roth	M
52	Adam Ilic	M
70	Nils Reichmuth	M
58	Amir Maaroufi	M
21	Riccardo Braschi	F
96	Brighton Labeau	F