Qarabag vs Twente Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

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Qarabag

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1 : 4

HT 0 - 0

1st leg 1-0 · Aggregate 2-4

Twente

Away

AI call Twente or draw

35%

28%

38%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Qarabag vs Twente prediction: Sportiko gives Qarabag a 35% chance of winning, Twente 38% and the draw 28%. Last updated 27 Aug 2026, 18:57.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 74%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%

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Match Report

Qarabag dominated possession and created the majority of chances throughout a tightly contested match, but it was Twente who proved clinical in the second half to advance. A goalless first half gave way to a decisive opening when Kady Borges broke the deadlock on 59 minutes, and Marko Pjaca extended the lead to 2–0 on 79 minutes despite Qarabag enjoying 60% of the ball and registering nine shots on goal to Twente's one.

The closing stages saw Twente put the tie beyond doubt, with Max Bruns adding a third in stoppage time before Wout Weghorst converted a fourth in the 94th minute. Qarabag's task was further complicated when Marko Janković received a second yellow card in extra time, reducing the hosts to ten men. Younes Taha pulled one back for Qarabag in the 114th minute, but it proved merely a consolation.

Our pre-match AI model rated a Twente win as the most likely outcome at 38%, a call that proved correct. The Dutch side advance on a 4–1 scoreline despite being outplayed in terms of possession and territory throughout.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 22'

Ramiz Zerrouki Yellow Card

Bruno Langa Yellow Card

23' ▮

HT 0–0

Samuel Lobato Yellow Card

58' ▮

Kady Borges assist: Musa Qurbanlı

59' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 70'

Sondre Ørjasæter ⇄ Marko Pjaca

⇄ 70'

Robin Pröpper ⇄ Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink

Musa Qurbanlı ⇄ Cebrail Makreckis

70' ⇄

Samuel Lobato ⇄ Pedro Bicalho

70' ⇄

Bruno Langa ⇄ Dani Bolt

76' ⇄

⚽ 1–1 79'

Marko Pjaca assist: W. Weghorst

Kady Borges ⇄ Joni Montiel

86' ⇄

Marko Janković Yellow Card

90' ▮

⚽ 1–2 90+2'

Max Bruns assist: Marko Pjaca

Yellow Card

90+4' ▮

⇄ 90+5'

Ruud Nijstad ⇄ Aske Adelgaard

⇄ 91'

Daan Rots ⇄ Thomas Van den Belt

Jaly Mouaddib Yellow Card

92' ▮

⚽ 1–3 94'

W. Weghorst assist: Daouda Weidmann

⇄ 97'

Daouda Weidmann ⇄ Mathias Kjølø

Marko Janković Yellow Card

106' ▮

Marko Janković Red Card

106' ▮

▮ 106'

W. Weghorst Yellow Card

⇄ 109'

W. Weghorst ⇄ Filip Thorvaldsen

⚽ 1–4 114'

Younes Taha

Bədavi Hüseynov ⇄ Bahlul Mustafazada

114' ⇄

Jaly Mouaddib ⇄ Hikmat Cabrayilzada

114' ⇄

▮ 116'

Younes Taha Yellow Card

FT 1–4

Qarabag

Match Stats

Twente

40% Ball Possession 60%

Expected Goals (xG)

9 Total Shots 28

1 Shots on Goal 9

4 Shots off Goal 8

4 Blocked Shots 11

5 Shots insidebox 17

4 Shots outsidebox 11

0 Corner Kicks 9

2 Offsides 2

20 Fouls 15

6 Yellow Cards 2

1 Red Cards 0

4 Goalkeeper Saves 0

401 Total passes 597

304 Passes accurate 503

76% Passes % 84%

goals_prevented

Qarabag

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Kady Borges M	7.9	86'	1	–	2	20 (16%)	–
5 Bruno Langa D	7.2	76'	–	–	–	20 (15%)	2
88 Samuel Lobato M	7.0	70'	–	–	–	18 (15%)	3
22 Musa Qurbanlı F	6.9	70'	–	1	–	9 (7%)	2
21 Olexiy Kashchuk M	6.7	114'	–	–	–	26 (25%)	3
7 Jaly Mouaddib M	6.6	114'	–	–	3	25 (19%)	2
9 Joni Montiel M	6.5	28'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	1
8 Marko Janković M	6.3	106'	–	–	–	44 (33%)	1
35 Pedro Bicalho M	6.3	44'	–	–	–	16 (14%)	1
25 Cebrail Makreckis M	6.2	44'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	1
55 Bədavi Hüseynov D	6.0	114'	–	–	–	61 (49%)	2
4 Bence Várkonyi D	6.0	114'	–	–	–	50 (42%)	2
2 Matheus Silva D	5.9	114'	–	–	–	32 (24%)	4
18 Dani Bolt D	5.7	38'	–	–	–	8 (4%)	–
23 Martin Zlomislić G	5.0	114'	–	–	–	45 (19%)	–

Twente

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Younes Taha M	8.3	114'	1	–	2	49 (37%)	5
7 Marko Pjaca F	8.0	44'	1	1	2	17 (13%)	2
38 Max Bruns D	7.9	114'	1	–	3	91 (77%)	–
6 Ramiz Zerrouki M	7.7	114'	–	–	1	74 (68%)	1
42 Daouda Weidmann M	7.5	97'	–	1	3	62 (56%)	1
11 Daan Rots M	7.3	90'	–	–	1	37 (34%)	4
9 W. Weghorst F	7.2	109'	1	1	2	24 (17%)	–
27 Sondre Ørjasæter M	7.2	70'	–	–	2	24 (21%)	1
3 Robin Pröpper D	7.2	70'	–	–	–	48 (41%)	–
43 Ruud Nijstad D	6.9	95'	–	–	–	38 (33%)	2
20 Thomas Van den Belt M	6.9	24'	–	–	–	17 (15%)	–
28 Bart van Rooij D	6.7	114'	–	–	–	52 (44%)	1
4 Mathias Kjølø M	6.7	17'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–
29 Aske Adelgaard D	6.7	19'	–	–	–	15 (13%)	–
25 Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink F	6.3	44'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	1
1 Lars Unnerstall G	5.9	114'	–	–	–	29 (18%)	–
17 Filip Thorvaldsen F	—	5'	–	–	1	–	–

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Confidence Low (38%)

At a glance

Our lean

Twente or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.5%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Qarabag

WDWWL

Twente

WWWDW

Last 3 meetings Qarabag · 1W 2D 0L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

35%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

38%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Twente goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	8	5	2	1
1	10	14	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Qarabag goals · most likely 1–1 (14.5%)

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Players in form

Qarabag

No scorer data.

Twente

M. Pjaca 4 gls

M. Bruns 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

35%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

35%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

58% Home (No Draw) 42% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 12% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

41% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals 29% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	7.8%	5.3%	2.0%	0.6%
1	9.8%	14.5%	7.2%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.8%	8.7%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%
3	3.5%	4.0%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.2%	1.3%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

71%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Qarabag	Draw	Twente
Qarabag	23.7%	4.4%	1.7%
Draw	16.0%	19.5%	12.3%
Twente	2.1%	4.3%	16.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Qarabag vs Twente

1 Qarabag Wins

2 Draws

0 Twente Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
20 Aug 2026	Twente	0 - 1	Qarabag
28 Aug 2014	Twente	1 - 1	Qarabag
21 Aug 2014	Qarabag	0 - 0	Twente

Qarabag — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Safa Baku	W	1 - 0
13 Sep	A Zira	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Araz	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A Sumqayıt	W	0 - 1
27 Aug	H Twente	L	1 - 4

Twente — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H PSV Eindhoven	W	3 - 2
12 Sep	H ADO Den Haag	W	2 - 0
09 Sep	H Telstar	W	1 - 0
06 Sep	A Groningen	D	2 - 2
30 Aug	A Cambuur	W	1 - 4

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Twente

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: J. van den Brom

1 Unnerstall

43 Nijstad

3 Pröpper

38 Bruns

28 Rooij

6 Zerrouki

42 Weidmann

27 Ørjasæter

11 Rots

19 Taha

9 Weghorst

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Lars Unnerstall	G
28	Bart van Rooij	D
38	Max Bruns	D
3	Robin Pröpper	D
43	Ruud Nijstad	D
42	Daouda Weidmann	M
6	Ramiz Zerrouki	M
19	Younes Taha	M
11	Daan Rots	M
27	Sondre Ørjasæter	M
9	Wout Weghorst	F

Substitutes

7	Marko Pjaca	F
25	Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink	F
29	Aske Adelgaard	D
20	Thomas Van den Belt	M
16	Joël Drommel	G
22	Remko Pasveer	G
12	Guilherme Peixoto	D
24	Krzysztof Kurowski	D
39	Jip Meilink	D
4	Mathias Kjølø	M
17	Filip Thorvaldsen	F
26	Benjamin Nagel	M

Qarabag

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

23 Zlomislić

5 Langa

4 Várkonyi

55 Hüseynov

2 Silva

8 Janković

88 Lobato

7 Mouaddib

20 Borges

21 Kashchuk

22 Qurbanlı

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Martin Zlomislić	G
2	Matheus Silva	D
55	Bədavi Hüseynov	D
4	Bence Várkonyi	D
5	Bruno Langa	D
88	Samuel Lobato	M
8	Marko Janković	M
21	Olexiy Kashchuk	M
20	Kady Borges	M
7	Jaly Mouaddib	M
22	Musa Qurbanlı	F

Substitutes

25	Cebrail Makreckis	M
35	Pedro Bicalho	M
18	Dani Bolt	D
9	Joni Montiel	M
1	Shakhrudin Magomedaliyev	G
99	Mateusz Kochalski	G
13	Bahlul Mustafazada	D
32	Hikmat Cabrayilzada	D
49	Ali Bashirov	M