Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

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Maccabi Tel Aviv

Home

1 : 1

HT 0 - 0

1st leg 1-2 · Aggregate 2-3

FC Lugano

Away

AI call FC Lugano or draw

32%

26%

42%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano prediction: Sportiko gives Maccabi Tel Aviv a 32% chance of winning, FC Lugano 42% and the draw 26%. Last updated 27 Aug 2026, 17:53.

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Match Report

Maccabi Tel Aviv and FC Lugano played out a tense 1–1 draw in their UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round encounter, with the first half ending goalless despite the home side enjoying the better of possession. A yellow card apiece for Antonios Papadopoulos and Mattia Zanotti added early needle to proceedings.

The match turned decisively in the second half when Lugano's Zanotti received a second yellow card on 58 minutes, reducing the Swiss side to ten men. Maccabi capitalised almost immediately, with Dor Peretz converting a penalty on 69 minutes to put the hosts ahead. However, Lugano showed considerable resilience, and Dereck Moncada levelled with a fine finish on 79 minutes to earn his side a valuable away goal. Maccabi finished the stronger on paper, recording 16 total shots to Lugano's eight and six shots on target to two, yet could not find a winner.

The result leaves the tie finely poised heading into the second leg. Notably, our pre-match AI model had rated a Lugano win as the most likely outcome at 42%, a call that proved correct given the visitors' point on the road.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 27'

Antonios Papadopoulos Yellow Card

▮ 36'

Mattia Zanotti Yellow Card

HT 0–0

▮ 58'

Mattia Zanotti Yellow Card

▮ 58'

Mattia Zanotti Red Card

⇄ 63'

Kevin Behrens ⇄ Dereck Moncada

⇄ 63'

Daniel Dos Santos ⇄ Damian Kelvin

Tyrese Asante ⇄ Noam Ben Harosh

65' ⇄

Ester Sokler ⇄ Elad Madmon

65' ⇄

▮ 68'

Renato Steffen Yellow Card

Dor Peretz Penalty

69' ⚽ 1–0

Mohamed Camara Yellow Card

70' ▮

⚽ 1–1 79'

Dereck Moncada assist: Yanis Cimignani

Ido Shahar ⇄ Hisham Layous

81' ⇄

⇄ 82'

Renato Steffen ⇄ Bekhruz Karimov

⇄ 82'

Antonios Papadopoulos ⇄ Ahmed Kendouci

▮ 90+2'

Uran Bislimi Yellow Card

FT 1–1

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Match Stats

FC Lugano

59% Ball Possession 41%

Expected Goals (xG)

16 Total Shots 8

6 Shots on Goal 2

4 Shots off Goal 5

6 Blocked Shots 1

10 Shots insidebox 2

6 Shots outsidebox 6

5 Corner Kicks 2

1 Offsides 2

10 Fouls 9

1 Yellow Cards 4

0 Red Cards 1

1 Goalkeeper Saves 5

490 Total passes 352

426 Passes accurate 277

87% Passes % 79%

goals_prevented

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
13 Raz Shlomo D	7.3	73'	–	–	–	72 (66%)	–
5 Mohamed Camara D	7.2	73'	–	–	–	58 (53%)	3
42 Dor Peretz M	7.2	73'	1	–	3	14 (9%)	–
29 Hélio Varela F	7.0	73'	–	–	–	22 (18%)	1
3 Roy Revivo D	7.0	73'	–	–	1	53 (48%)	1
19 Elad Madmon F	7.0	8'	–	–	1	1	–
6 Tyrese Asante D	6.9	65'	–	–	–	63 (57%)	–
28 Issouf Sissokho M	6.9	73'	–	–	–	49 (46%)	3
36 Ido Shahar M	6.9	73'	–	–	1	23 (19%)	–
9 Ester Sokler F	6.9	65'	–	–	1	7 (6%)	1
77 Osher Davida F	6.6	73'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	1
22 Ofek Melika G	6.5	73'	–	–	–	23 (13%)	–
21 Noam Ben Harosh D	6.3	8'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	–

FC Lugano

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Anto Grgić M	6.9	73'	–	–	1	50 (45%)	2
25 Uran Bislimi M	6.9	73'	–	–	1	43 (37%)	1
17 Lars Lukas Mai D	6.7	73'	–	–	–	41 (36%)	–
11 Renato Steffen F	6.7	73'	–	–	–	30 (23%)	–
91 Kevin Behrens F	6.7	63'	–	–	–	14 (9%)	–
30 Dereck Moncada F	6.7	10'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	–
16 David von Ballmoos G	6.6	73'	–	–	–	29 (15%)	–
21 Yanis Cimignani M	6.6	73'	–	–	–	31 (22%)	2
6 Antonios Papadopoulos D	6.5	73'	–	–	2	19 (17%)	1
27 Daniel Dos Santos M	6.5	63'	–	–	2	23 (18%)	1
3 Hannes Delcroix D	6.3	73'	–	–	–	42 (38%)	–
4 Damian Kelvin D	6.2	10'	–	–	–	–	–
46 Mattia Zanotti M	5.6	58'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	3

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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Our lean

FC Lugano or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.6%

Both teams to score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

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Maccabi Tel Aviv

WWWWD

FC Lugano

WWDWW

Last 1 meetings Maccabi Tel Aviv · 0W 0D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

32%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

42%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FC Lugano goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	8	9	6	3	1
1	4	12	10	7	3	1
2	3	6	6	4	2	1
3	1	2	2	1	1
4		1	1
5

↑ Maccabi Tel Aviv goals · most likely 1–1 (11.6%)

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Players in form

Maccabi Tel Aviv

No scorer data.

FC Lugano

K. Behrens 6 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Home Win

32%

Draw

26%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

41%

2.5

59%

64%

3.5

36%

82%

4.5

18%

92%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Home Win

32%

Draw

26%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

73% Away (No Draw) 27% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

33% Away Win by 2+ 8% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

55% Away Scores More 25% Equal Goals 20% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

41%

2.5

59%

64%

3.5

36%

82%

4.5

18%

92%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Exact Goals

12%

24%

23%

17%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	7.9%	9.1%	5.9%	2.9%
1	3.9%	11.6%	10.1%	6.6%	3.2%
2	2.9%	5.7%	5.6%	3.7%	1.8%
3	1.1%	2.1%	2.1%	1.4%	0.7%
4	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Maccabi Tel Aviv	Draw	FC Lugano
Maccabi Tel Aviv	11.1%	3.9%	2.6%
Draw	7.8%	14.5%	17.1%
FC Lugano	1.6%	4.4%	37.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

42%

1.5

58%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Away Exact Goals

14%

28%

27%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs FC Lugano

0 Maccabi Tel Aviv Wins

0 Draws

1 FC Lugano Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
20 Aug 2026	FC Lugano	2 - 1	Maccabi Tel Aviv

Maccabi Tel Aviv — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Maccabi Netanya	W	1 - 2
14 Sep	H Hapoel Tel Aviv	W	4 - 1
07 Sep	A Hapoel Beer Sheva	W	1 - 4
31 Aug	H Maccabi Haifa	W	3 - 1
27 Aug	H FC Lugano	D	1 - 1

FC Lugano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Lausanne	W	0 - 4
16 Sep	H FC ST. Gallen	W	4 - 1
12 Sep	H BSC Young Boys	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	A FC Basel 1893	W	1 - 3
03 Sep	H Servette FC	W	1 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Kenny Miller

22 Melika

3 Revivo

13 Shlomo

5 Camara

6 Asante

36 Shahar

28 Sissokho

42 Peretz

29 Varela

9 Sokler

77 Davida

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
22	Ofek Melika	G
6	Tyrese Asante	D
5	Mohamed Camara	D
13	Raz Shlomo	D
3	Roy Revivo	D
42	Dor Peretz	M
28	Issouf Sissokho	M
36	Ido Shahar	M
77	Osher Davida	F
9	Ester Sokler	F
29	Hélio Varela	F

Substitutes

51	Shalev Saadia	G
90	Roi Mishpati	G
21	Noam Ben Harosh	D
25	Shahar Rosen	D
41	Itai Ben Hamo	D
18	Dan Glazer	M
30	Itamar Noy	M
33	Hisham Layous	F
59	Lotem Asres	M
60	Ilay Ben Simon	F
19	Elad Madmon	F

FC Lugano

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti

16 Ballmoos

3 Delcroix

17 Mai

6 Papadopoulos

21 Cimignani

27 Santos

8 Grgić

25 Bislimi

46 Zanotti

91 Behrens

11 Steffen

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	David von Ballmoos	G
6	Antonios Papadopoulos	D
17	Lars Lukas Mai	D
3	Hannes Delcroix	D
46	Mattia Zanotti	M
25	Uran Bislimi	M
8	Anto Grgić	M
27	Daniel Dos Santos	M
21	Yanis Cimignani	M
11	Renato Steffen	F
91	Kevin Behrens	F

Substitutes

4	Damian Kelvin	D
39	Ahmadou Ndiaye	G
28	Felix Gebhardt	G
2	Bekhruz Karimov	D
18	Joel Bichsel	D
26	Martim Marques	D
14	Ahmed Kendouci	M
22	Beckham Castro	F
23	Gjan Ajdin	M
24	Elias Pihlström	F
30	Dereck Moncada	F