KuPS vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

Post on X

KuPS

Home

1 : 0

HT 0 - 0

1st leg 1-1 · Aggregate 2-1

Shamrock Rovers

Away

AI call KuPS or draw

44%

30%

26%

Home Win Draw Away Win

KuPS vs Shamrock Rovers prediction: Sportiko gives KuPS a 44% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers 26% and the draw 30%. Last updated 27 Aug 2026, 16:53.

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Match Report

KuPS secured a narrow but deserved 1–0 victory over Shamrock Rovers in their UEFA Europa Conference League playoff first leg, with the decisive moment arriving in unfortunate circumstances for the visitors. The first half passed without a goal despite KuPS enjoying the greater share of possession, and the game remained level heading into the final half-hour.

The match turned on 75 minutes when Shamrock Rovers defender Pico, who had already been cautioned two minutes earlier, turned the ball into his own net to hand the Finnish side the advantage. Both managers had been active in making changes throughout the second half, with a flurry of substitutions on either side reshaping the contest. Our pre-match AI model had identified a KuPS win as the most likely outcome at 44%, a call that proved accurate.

KuPS finished the stronger side, registering four shots on target to Rovers' two and commanding 62% of possession across the ninety minutes. Shamrock Rovers, who collected four yellow cards on the night including a late booking for goalkeeper Ed McGinty, will need to overturn the deficit in the second leg to progress.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 29'

Yellow Card

HT 0–0

J. Luyeye-Lutumba ⇄ G. Engvall

59' ⇄

⇄ 63'

J. Afolabi ⇄ Graham Burke

⇄ 63'

⇄ Jack Byrne

▮ 65'

Matthew Healy Yellow Card

S. Savolainen

69' ⇄

V. Gasc ⇄ S. Touray

69' ⇄

▮ 73'

Pico Yellow Card

Pico Own Goal

75' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 82'

Aaron Greene ⇄ Michael Noonan

⇄ 82'

Dylan Watts ⇄ Adam Brennan

Yellow Card

87' ▮

P. Parzyszek

88' ⇄

▮ 90+3'

Ed McGinty Yellow Card

FT 1–0

KuPS

Match Stats

Shamrock Rovers

62% Ball Possession 38%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

4 Shots on Goal 2

3 Shots off Goal 3

2 Blocked Shots 0

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

3 Corner Kicks 2

2 Offsides 2

12 Fouls 10

1 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Low (44%)

At a glance

Our lean

KuPS or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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KuPS

WDDLW

Shamrock Rovers

WLDDL

Last 1 meetings KuPS · 0W 1D 0L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Shamrock Rovers goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	8	6	2	1
1	10	15	7	3	1
2	7	8	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ KuPS goals · most likely 1–1 (14.7%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

30%

Away Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

30%

Away Win

26%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

55% Home (No Draw) 45% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

18% Home Win by 2+ 13% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

38% Home Scores More 31% Away Scores More 31% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.4%	8.4%	5.8%	2.2%	0.6%
1	9.6%	14.7%	7.5%	2.9%	0.8%
2	7.3%	8.4%	4.8%	1.8%	0.5%
3	3.1%	3.6%	2.1%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.0%	1.2%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	KuPS	Draw	Shamrock Rovers
KuPS	26.5%	5.6%	2.2%
Draw	11.4%	19.5%	13.1%
Shamrock Rovers	1.2%	3.4%	17.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

32%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: KuPS vs Shamrock Rovers

0 KuPS Wins

1 Draws

0 Shamrock Rovers Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
20 Aug 2026	Shamrock Rovers	1 - 1	KuPS

KuPS — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A VPS	W	0 - 2
13 Sep	H HJK Helsinki	D	0 - 0
08 Sep	A Gnistan	D	1 - 1
31 Aug	A Inter Turku	L	1 - 0
27 Aug	H Shamrock Rovers	W	1 - 0

Shamrock Rovers — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Waterford	W	3 - 2
11 Sep	A St Patrick's Athl.	L	2 - 0
04 Sep	H Shelbourne	D	0 - 0
30 Aug	A Derry City	D	3 - 3
27 Aug	A KuPS	L	1 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

KuPS

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Miika Nuutinen

1 Kreidl

25 Antwi

4 Adams

28 Magassa

6 Savolainen

8 Pennanen

10 Gasc

24 Armah

16 Jyry

21 Luyeye-Lutumba

20 Parzyszek

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Johannes Kreidl	G
6	Saku Savolainen	D
28	Brahima Magassa	D
4	Kasim Adams	D
25	Clinton Antwi	D
10	Valentín Gasc	M
8	Petteri Pennanen	M
21	Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba	M
16	Tommi Jyry	M
24	Bob Nii Armah	D
20	Piotr Parzyszek	F

Substitutes

12	Hemmo Riihimäki	G
37	Kasperi Silen	G
23	Arttu Lötjönen	D
29	Akseli Puukko	D
33	Taneli Hämäläinen	D
30	Jorginho	D
13	Niilo Kujasalo	M
17	Arttu Heinonen	M
14	Samuel Pasanen	M
22	Saikou Touray	M
9	Gustav Engvall	F
11	Jaime Moreno	F

Shamrock Rovers

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Stephen Bradley

1 McGinty

3 Stevens

4 Pico

5 Grace

24 Fitzgerald

26 O'Sullivan

8 Healy

7 Watts

22 Sobowale

9 Greene

18 Afolabi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ed McGinty	G
5	Lee Grace	D
4	Pico	D
3	Enda Stevens	D
22	Tunmise Sobowale	D
7	Dylan Watts	M
8	Matthew Healy	M
26	John O'Sullivan	M
24	William Fitzgerald	M
18	Jonathan Afolabi	F
9	Aaron Greene	F

Substitutes

25	Lee Steacy	G
41	Alex Noonan	G
17	Luke O'Regan	D
27	Cory O'Sullivan	D
29	Jack Byrne	M
11	Jake Mulraney	M
19	Adam Brennan	M
10	Graham Burke	F
15	Maleace Asamoah	F
31	Michael Noonan	F
34	Ben Mahon	F