Hammarby FF vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

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Hammarby FF

Home

0 : 1

HT 0 - 1

1st leg 0-0 · Aggregate 0-1

Raków Częstochowa

Away

AI call Difficult Hammarby FF win or draw

51%

27%

22%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Hammarby FF vs Raków Częstochowa prediction: Sportiko gives Hammarby FF a 51% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa 22% and the draw 27%. Last updated 13 Aug 2026, 18:57.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 74%

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Match Report

Raków Częstochowa claimed a narrow but decisive 1–0 victory at Hammarby FF in the UEFA Europa Conference League third qualifying round, with the decisive moment arriving in first-half stoppage time. Stratos Svarnas struck in the 45+2nd minute to give the Polish side the lead they would carry into the break and ultimately protect for the full 90 minutes.

The second half grew increasingly fractious. Amin Boudri, already booked just before the interval, received a second yellow card in the 54th minute to leave Hammarby with ten men, effectively ending the hosts' hopes of a comeback. A flurry of further bookings followed, with yellow cards shown to players on both sides in quick succession, reflecting the tension on the pitch.

Despite dominating possession at 62% and earning eight corners to Raków's two, Hammarby managed only four shots on target and could not find a way through. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Hammarby win as the most likely outcome at 51%, a call that did not materialise. Raków advance on the strength of Svarnas's solitary goal.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Amin Boudri Yellow Card

45+1' ▮

⚽ 0–1 45+2'

Stratos Svarnas assist: Oskar Repka

HT 0–1

▮ 53'

Yellow Card

Amin Boudri Yellow Card

54' ▮

Amin Boudri Red Card

54' ▮

▮ 57'

Kacper Trelowski Yellow Card

Frederik Winther Yellow Card

58' ▮

Nahir Besara ⇄ Victor Lind

60' ⇄

Tesfaldet Tekie ⇄ Frank Junior Adjei

60' ⇄

⇄ 65'

Oliwier Kwiatkowski ⇄ Tomasz Pieńko

▮ 67'

Mahir Emreli Yellow Card

⇄ 73'

Mahir Emreli

⇄ 73'

Michael Ameyaw ⇄ Jean Carlos Silva

Victor Eriksson ⇄ Ibrahima Fofana

78' ⇄

⇄ 78'

⇄ Karol Struski

Noah Persson ⇄ Oscar Steinke Brånby

78' ⇄

Paulos Abraham ⇄ Suwaibou Kebbeh

89' ⇄

▮ 90+6'

Yellow Card

FT 0–1

Hammarby FF

Match Stats

Raków Częstochowa

62% Ball Possession 38%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

4 Shots on Goal 3

7 Shots off Goal 2

5 Blocked Shots 1

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

8 Corner Kicks 2

0 Offsides 1

8 Fouls 8

3 Yellow Cards 3

1 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Medium (51%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Hammarby FF win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.8%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Hammarby FF

WWDLW

Raków Częstochowa

LLWLL

Last 1 meetings Hammarby FF · 0W 1D 0L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

51%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

22%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Raków Częstochowa goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	6	4	1
1	11	14	6	2
2	10	9	4	1
3	5	5	2	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Hammarby FF goals · most likely 1–1 (13.8%)

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Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

69% Home (No Draw) 31% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

26% Home Win by 2+ 8% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

49% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 22% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.9%	6.4%	3.8%	1.2%	0.3%
1	11.2%	13.8%	5.9%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.8%	9.4%	4.5%	1.4%	0.4%
3	5.0%	4.8%	2.3%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.9%	1.8%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Hammarby FF	Draw	Raków Częstochowa
Hammarby FF	30.8%	4.6%	1.6%
Draw	17.3%	18.7%	10.2%
Raków Częstochowa	1.9%	3.6%	11.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Hammarby FF vs Raków Częstochowa

0 Hammarby FF Wins

1 Draws

0 Raków Częstochowa Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
06 Aug 2026	Raków Częstochowa	0 - 0	Hammarby FF

Hammarby FF — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Degerfors IF	W	0 - 1
13 Sep	H IF Brommapojkarna	W	3 - 1
06 Sep	A Orgryte IS	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	A AIK Stockholm	L	3 - 2
26 Aug	A Stockholm Internazionale	W	0 - 3

Raków Częstochowa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Korona Kielce	L	3 - 2
15 Sep	H Zaglebie Lubin	L	2 - 3
11 Sep	H Motor Lublin	W	2 - 1
06 Sep	A Lech Poznan	L	1 - 0
03 Sep	H Gornik Zabrze	L	1 - 2

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Hammarby FF

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Kalle Karlsson

1 Hahn

16 Persson

3 Winther

4 Eriksson

2 Skoglund

5 Tekie

8 Karlsson

17 Boudri

20 Besara

26 Madjed

7 Abraham

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Warner Hahn	G
2	Hampus Skoglund	D
4	Victor Eriksson	D
3	Frederik Winther	D
16	Noah Persson	D
8	Markus Karlsson	M
5	Tesfaldet Tekie	M
26	Montader Madjed	M
20	Nahir Besara	M
17	Amin Boudri	M
7	Paulos Abraham	F

Substitutes

9	Victor Lind	M
28	Frank Junior Adjei	M
27	Felix Jakobsson	G
50	Benjamin Norell	G
6	Ibrahima Fofana	D
24	Waylon Renecke	D
31	Oscar Steinke Brånby	D
11	Oscar Johansson Schellhas	M
22	Wilson Lindberg Uhrstrom	M
15	Oliver Jordan Hagen	F
30	Suwaibou Kebbeh	F

Raków Częstochowa

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Dawid Kroczek

1 Trelowski

4 Svarnas

25 Racovițan

77 Gaucho

26 Otieno

6 Repka

10 Kocherhin

19 Ameyaw

15 Kwiatkowski

11 Emreli

9 Makuch

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Kacper Trelowski	G
77	Didí Gaucho	D
25	Bogdan Racovițan	D
4	Stratos Svarnas	D
19	Michael Ameyaw	M
10	Wladyslaw Kocherhin	M
6	Oskar Repka	M
26	Erick Otieno	M
9	Patryk Makuch	F
11	Mahir Emreli	F
15	Oliwier Kwiatkowski	M

Substitutes

21	Tomasz Pieńko	M
29	Wiktor Żołneczko	G
71	Tarik Karić	G
20	Jean Carlos Silva	M
2	Jerzy Napieraj	M
17	Jakub Jendryka	M
23	Karol Struski	M
39	Isak Brusberg	M
88	Ádin Molnár	M
80	Mohamed Lamine Diaby	F