Rīgas FS vs FK Jablonec Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

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Rīgas FS

Home

1 : 2

HT 1 - 2

1st leg 0-2 · Aggregate 1-4

FK Jablonec

Away

AI call Rīgas FS or draw

45%

27%

28%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Rīgas FS vs FK Jablonec prediction: Sportiko gives Rīgas FS a 45% chance of winning, FK Jablonec 28% and the draw 27%. Last updated 13 Aug 2026, 18:21.

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1st Half Over 0.5 74%

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Match Report

FK Jablonec secured a 2–1 victory over Rīgas FS in the UEFA Europa Conference League third qualifying round, with the tie effectively settled before the break. Richard Sedláček opened the scoring in the fourth minute, and Sebastian Nebyla doubled the advantage from the penalty spot on 22 minutes. A Rīgas FS goal at 38 minutes pulled one back before half-time, but Jablonec held firm to preserve their lead heading into the interval.

The second half was a fractious affair, with five yellow cards and a red card distributed across both sides, the dismissal arriving in the 83rd minute adding further tension to the closing stages. Despite Rīgas FS enjoying 59 percent possession and five shots on goal to Jablonec's two, the Latvian hosts could not find an equaliser, their dominance of the ball failing to translate into the necessary cutting edge.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Rīgas FS win as the most likely outcome at 45 percent, a call that did not materialise. Jablonec advance on the strength of a disciplined defensive display in the second half.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 4'

Richard Sedláček assist: Matěj Polidar

⚽ 0–2 22'

Sebastian Nebyla Penalty

38' ⚽ 1–2

HT 1–2

Yellow Card

50' ▮

Yellow Card

56' ▮

⇄ 61'

Filip Zorvan ⇄ Antonín Růsek

⇄ 61'

Matěj Polidar ⇄ Jan Suchan

▮ 68'

Richard Sedláček Yellow Card

72' ⇄

Yellow Card

79' ▮

⇄ 79'

Lamin Jawo ⇄ Nelson Okeke

Yellow Card

83' ▮

Red Card

83' ▮

84' ⇄

⇄ 86'

Vakhtang Chanturishvili ⇄ Daniel Souček

⇄ 86'

Sebastian Nebyla ⇄ Filip Vecheta

▮ 89'

Filip Vecheta Yellow Card

FT 1–2

Rīgas FS

Match Stats

FK Jablonec

59% Ball Possession 41%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

5 Shots on Goal 2

8 Shots off Goal 4

6 Blocked Shots 0

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

4 Corner Kicks 5

2 Offsides 1

15 Fouls 14

4 Yellow Cards 1

1 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Our lean

Rīgas FS or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.8%

Both teams to score

60%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

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Rīgas FS

DWDLW

FK Jablonec

DLWLD

Last 1 meetings Rīgas FS · 0W 0D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FK Jablonec goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	5	4	2	1
1	7	13	7	3	1
2	7	9	6	3	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	2	2	1	1
5	1	1

↑ Rīgas FS goals · most likely 1–1 (12.8%)

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Away Win

28%

Draw

27%

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Away Win

28%

Draw

27%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

61% Home (No Draw) 39% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Home Win by 2+ 13% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

44% Home Scores More 29% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

25%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.8%	5.4%	4.4%	1.9%	0.6%
1	7.3%	12.8%	7.3%	3.2%	1.0%
2	7.3%	9.4%	6.0%	2.6%	0.8%
3	4.0%	5.2%	3.3%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.7%	2.1%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Rīgas FS	Draw	FK Jablonec
Rīgas FS	27.6%	4.4%	1.8%
Draw	15.1%	16.1%	10.1%
FK Jablonec	2.6%	4.7%	17.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

51%

1.5

49%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

19%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Rīgas FS vs FK Jablonec

0 Rīgas FS Wins

0 Draws

1 FK Jablonec Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
06 Aug 2026	FK Jablonec	2 - 0	Rīgas FS

Rīgas FS — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Auda	D	1 - 1
13 Sep	A BFC Daugavpils	W	1 - 2
07 Sep	H FK Liepaja	D	0 - 0
03 Sep	H Riga	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Ogre United	W	0 - 3

FK Jablonec — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Zlin	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Sparta Praha	L	2 - 0
09 Sep	H Baník Ostrava	W	3 - 0
06 Sep	H Slovan Liberec	L	1 - 2
02 Sep	A Bohemians 1905	D	1 - 1

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Rīgas FS

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Viktors Morozs

1 Matrevics

18 Zelenkovs

43 Lipušček

23 Prenga

6 Filipović

26 Panić

66 Saidy

8 Odisharia

10 Ikaunieks

19 Baldé

15 Ndjiki

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Rihards Matrevics	G
6	Aleksandar Filipović	D
23	Herdi Prenga	D
43	Žiga Lipušček	D
18	Dmitrijs Zelenkovs	M
66	Modou Saidy	M
26	Stefan Panić	M
19	Alfa Baldé	M
10	Jānis Ikaunieks	M
8	Lasha Odisharia	M
15	Rostand Ndjiki	F

Substitutes

40	Mareks Muizzemnieks	G
4	Roberts Veips	D
5	Niks Sliede	D
14	Mamadou Sylla	M
21	Niks Dusalijevs	M
77	Gauthier Mankenda	M
81	Strahinja Rakić	M
9	Duje Korač	F
22	Darko Lemajić	F

FK Jablonec

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Lubos Kozel

1 Hanuš

15 Pavlović

4 Tekijaški

18 Cedidla

20 Sláma

8 Zorvan

13 Sedláček

25 Nebyla

7 Chanturishvili

21 Polidar

44 Jawo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Jan Hanuš	G
18	Martin Cedidla	D
4	Nemanja Tekijaški	D
15	Dušan Pavlović	D
7	Vakhtang Chanturishvili	M
25	Sebastian Nebyla	M
13	Richard Sedláček	M
8	Filip Zorvan	M
20	Jiří Sláma	D
44	Lamin Jawo	F
21	Matěj Polidar	M

Substitutes

99	Klemen Mihelak	G
14	Daniel Souček	D
57	Filip Novák	D
6	Nelson Okeke	M
10	Jan Suchan	M
16	Hugo Ahl	M
23	Eduard Sobol	M
9	Antonín Růsek	F
19	Jan Chramosta	F
27	Filip Vecheta	F