Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe Prediction

UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

11 Aug 2026, 18:30

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Sturm Graz

Home

18:30

11 Aug 2026

1st leg 0-2

Fenerbahçe

Away

AI call Difficult Fenerbahçe win or draw

23%

25%

52%

Home Win · 4.04 Draw · 3.91 Away Win · 1.91

Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe prediction: Sportiko gives Sturm Graz a 23% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe 52% and the draw 25%. Last updated 6 Aug 2026, 06:05.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.1%

Both teams to score

60%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

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Sturm Graz

LDWWW

Fenerbahçe

WDWWW

Last 3 meetings Sturm Graz · 0W 1D 2L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

23%

10%

Draw

25%

45%

Away

52%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Fenerbahçe goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	7	9	6	3	1
1	4	11	10	7	3	1
2	3	6	6	4	2	1
3	1	2	2	1	1
4		1	1
5

↑ Sturm Graz goals · most likely 1–1 (11.1%)

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Players in form

Sturm Graz

Luca Weinhandl 1 gls

J. Gorenc Stankovič 1 gls

J. Mitchell 1 gls

Fenerbahçe

Talisca 3 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

52%

Draw

25%

Home Win

23%

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

16%

1.5

84%

39%

2.5

61%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

91%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

52%

Draw

25%

Home Win

23%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

74% Away (No Draw) 26% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

34% Away Win by 2+ 8% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

56% Away Scores More 24% Equal Goals 20% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

16%

1.5

84%

39%

2.5

61%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

91%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Exact Goals

11%

23%

18%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.5%	7.4%	8.8%	6.0%	3.1%
1	3.6%	11.1%	10.1%	6.8%	3.5%
2	2.8%	5.6%	5.7%	3.9%	2.0%
3	1.1%	2.1%	2.2%	1.5%	0.8%
4	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

22%

30%

27%

13%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Sturm Graz	Draw	Fenerbahçe
Sturm Graz	10.6%	3.5%	2.2%
Draw	7.8%	13.8%	15.3%
Fenerbahçe	1.8%	4.8%	40.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

32%

37%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

40%

1.5

60%

68%

2.5

32%

87%

3.5

13%

Away Exact Goals

13%

27%

28%

19%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe

0 Sturm Graz Wins

1 Draws

2 Fenerbahçe Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
05 Aug 2026	Fenerbahçe	2 - 0	Sturm Graz
03 Aug 2017	Fenerbahçe	1 - 1	Sturm Graz
27 Jul 2017	Sturm Graz	1 - 2	Fenerbahçe

Sturm Graz — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Aug	A Fenerbahçe	L	2 - 0
01 Aug	A WSG Wattens	D	1 - 1
28 Jul	A Heart Of Midlothian	W	0 - 2
24 Jul	A Seekirchen	W	0 - 3
21 Jul	H Heart Of Midlothian	W	4 - 0

Fenerbahçe — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Aug	H Sturm Graz	W	2 - 0
29 Jul	A Gornik Zabrze	D	1 - 1
21 Jul	H Gornik Zabrze	W	1 - 0
14 Jul	A Lask Linz	W	1 - 2
08 Jul	A Admira Wacker	W	0 - 5

UEFA Champions League Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.