Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe Prediction
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe prediction: Sportiko gives Sturm Graz a 23% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe 53% and the draw 25%. Last updated 11 Aug 2026, 20:22.
Match Report
Fenerbahçe edged past Sturm Graz 1–0 in the UEFA Champions League third qualifying round, securing a hard-fought victory in a tightly contested first leg. The opening 45 minutes produced little in the way of clear-cut chances, with both sides cancelling each other out and the half ending goalless, though yellow cards for Nélson Semedo and Archie Brown added some edge to proceedings before the break.
The decisive moment arrived in the 66th minute when Talisca converted a penalty to give Fenerbahçe the lead, a goal that came shortly after a flurry of substitutions from both benches reshaped the contest. The Turkish side's greater attacking intent was reflected in their 19 total shots compared to Sturm Graz's 11, though the Austrian hosts edged the shots on target count at 6–2, suggesting Fenerbahçe were clinical rather than dominant.
Our pre-match AI model had rated a Fenerbahçe win as the most likely outcome at 53%, a call that proved correct. Talisca was withdrawn in the 77th minute, with Fenerbahçe managing the closing stages despite late bookings for Mitchell and Aktürkoğlu as Sturm Graz pushed for an equaliser that never came.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Sturm Graz
Match Stats
Sturm Graz
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 Daniil Khudyakov G | 7.9 | 92' | – | – | – | 24 (14%) | – |
| 2 Jeyland Mitchell D | 7.6 | 92' | – | – | – | 25 (21%) | 1 |
| 4 Jon Gorenc Stanković M | 7.5 | 70' | – | – | 1 | 47 (39%) | 5 |
| 18 Emran Soglo D | 7.3 | 92' | – | – | 2 | 42 (37%) | 4 |
| 43 Jacob Hödl M | 7.3 | 92' | – | – | – | 30 (23%) | 3 |
| 30 Paul Koller D | 6.9 | 13' | – | – | – | 9 (9%) | – |
| 23 Arjan Malić D | 6.6 | 61' | – | – | – | 24 (19%) | 2 |
| 28 Jurgen Heil M | 6.6 | 31' | – | – | – | 17 (15%) | 2 |
| 19 Simon Seidl M | 6.6 | 92' | – | – | – | 42 (32%) | 1 |
| 39 Luca Weinhandl M | 6.6 | 92' | – | – | 1 | 40 (29%) | 5 |
| 80 Ryan Fosso M | 6.6 | 22' | – | – | – | 15 (14%) | – |
| 44 Nelson Weiper F | 6.6 | 31' | – | – | – | 7 (6%) | 1 |
| 20 Seedy Jatta F | 6.2 | 61' | – | – | 1 | 6 (5%) | – |
| 11 Axel Kayombo F | 6.2 | 61' | – | – | 3 | 7 (3%) | – |
| 21 Petar Petrović D | 6.2 | 79' | – | – | 1 | 43 (40%) | 2 |
| 26 Belmin Beganović F | 6.2 | 31' | – | – | 1 | 5 (5%) | – |
Fenerbahçe
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94 Talisca F | 7.9 | 77' | 1 | – | 4 | 8 (6%) | – |
| 34 Mert Günok G | 7.7 | 92' | – | – | – | 34 (18%) | – |
| 37 Milan Škriniar D | 7.5 | 92' | – | – | – | 42 (37%) | 5 |
| 9 Kerem Aktürkoğlu M | 7.3 | 92' | – | – | 3 | 23 (20%) | 3 |
| 6 Mattéo Guendouzi M | 7.2 | 92' | – | – | – | 48 (42%) | 2 |
| 15 N. Aké D | 7.0 | 92' | – | – | – | 38 (32%) | 1 |
| 91 N'Golo Kanté M | 6.9 | 73' | – | – | 1 | 39 (34%) | 9 |
| 3 Archie Brown D | 6.9 | 92' | – | – | – | 18 (15%) | 3 |
| 27 Nélson Semedo D | 6.7 | 62' | – | – | – | 33 (28%) | 1 |
| 5 İsmail Yüksek M | 6.6 | 19' | – | – | – | 6 (6%) | 2 |
| 19 Vedat Muriqi F | 6.6 | 15' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | – |
| 18 Mert Müldür D | 6.3 | 30' | – | – | – | 10 (7%) | 1 |
| 70 Oğuz Aydın F | 6.3 | 29' | – | – | – | 17 (10%) | – |
| 10 Marco Asensio M | 6.3 | 63' | – | – | 1 | 26 (23%) | – |
| 7 Fred M | 6.2 | 29' | – | – | – | 16 (10%) | 1 |
| 11 Mason Greenwood M | 6.0 | 63' | – | – | – | 35 (28%) | – |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowAdvanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
No scorer data.
Talisca
4 gls
M. Greenwood
2 gls
A. Brown
2 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug 2026 | Fenerbahçe | 2 - 0 | Sturm Graz |
| 03 Aug 2017 | Fenerbahçe | 1 - 1 | Sturm Graz |
| 27 Jul 2017 | Sturm Graz | 1 - 2 | Fenerbahçe |
Sturm Graz — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Red Bull Salzburg | L | 3 - 0 |
| 16 Sep | H Rennes | D | 0 - 0 |
| 13 Sep | H Lask Linz | W | 2 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | A Voitsberg | W | 1 - 4 |
| 30 Aug | A Rapid Vienna | L | 3 - 1 |
Fenerbahçe — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Eyüpspor | W | 8 - 0 |
| 14 Sep | A Gaziantep FK | D | 0 - 0 |
| 10 Sep | H AS Roma | D | 1 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | H Beşiktaş | L | 1 - 2 |
| 30 Aug | A Samsunspor | W | 0 - 2 |
UEFA Champions League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 |
Bayern München
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 |
Barcelona
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 |
Manchester United
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 |
Como
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 |
Sporting CP
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 |
Manchester City
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 |
Aston Villa
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 |
Lens
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 |
Real Betis
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 |
Liverpool
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 |
Real Madrid
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 |
Arsenal
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 |
AEK Athens FC
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 |
AS Roma
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 |
Shakhtar Donetsk
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 |
Fenerbahçe
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 |
Villarreal
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 |
Lille
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 |
Slavia Praha
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 |
Club Brugge KV
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 |
Inter
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 |
Atletico Madrid
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 |
Napoli
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 |
Lask Linz
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 |
Viking
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 |
Galatasaray
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 |
FC Porto
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 |
RB Leipzig
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 |
Feyenoord
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 |
Sabah FA
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 |
Slovan Bratislava
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |
Bodo/Glimt
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Fenerbahçe
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Ismail Kartal
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Mert Günok | G |
| 27 | Nélson Semedo | D |
| 37 | Milan Škriniar | D |
| 15 | Nathan Aké | D |
| 3 | Archie Brown | D |
| 6 | Mattéo Guendouzi | M |
| 91 | N'Golo Kanté | M |
| 11 | Mason Greenwood | M |
| 10 | Marco Asensio | M |
| 9 | Kerem Aktürkoğlu | M |
| 94 | Talisca | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | Tarık Çetin | G |
| 75 | Kuzey Sapaz | G |
| 14 | Yiğit Efe Demir | D |
| 18 | Mert Müldür | D |
| 4 | Çağlar Söyüncü | D |
| 7 | Fred | M |
| 17 | İrfan Can Kahveci | M |
| 70 | Oğuz Aydın | F |
| 5 | İsmail Yüksek | M |
| 19 | Vedat Muriqi | F |
| 26 | Sidiki Cherif | F |
Sturm Graz
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: F. Ingolitsch
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 53 | Daniil Khudyakov | G |
| 23 | Arjan Malić | D |
| 2 | Jeyland Mitchell | D |
| 21 | Petar Petrović | D |
| 18 | Emran Soglo | D |
| 19 | Simon Seidl | M |
| 4 | Jon Gorenc Stanković | M |
| 39 | Luca Weinhandl | M |
| 43 | Jacob Hödl | M |
| 11 | Axel Kayombo | F |
| 20 | Seedy Jatta | F |
Substitutes
| 22 | Ammar Helac | G |
| 41 | Elias Lorenz | G |
| 5 | Albert Vallci | D |
| 27 | Luís Balbo | D |
| 30 | Paul Koller | D |
| 15 | Gizo Mamageishvili | M |
| 40 | Julian Halwachs | M |
| 80 | Ryan Fosso | M |
| 28 | Jurgen Heil | M |
| 17 | Szymon Włodarczyk | F |
| 26 | Belmin Beganović | F |
| 44 | Nelson Weiper | F |