Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Prediction

UEFA Champions League UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round
FT
Post on X
0 : 1
HT 0 - 1
1st leg 0-1 · Aggregate 0-2
AI call Difficult Levski Sofia win or draw
24%
25%
51%
Home Win Draw Away Win

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia prediction: Sportiko gives Kairat Almaty a 24% chance of winning, Levski Sofia 51% and the draw 25%. Last updated 11 Aug 2026, 16:59.

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Match Report

Levski Sofia claimed a narrow but crucial away victory at Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Champions League third qualifying round, with the single goal arriving early to set the tone for the entire contest. Reinaldo broke the deadlock in the 13th minute, giving the Bulgarian side a lead they would carry into half-time and ultimately protect throughout the ninety minutes. Our pre-match AI model rated a Levski Sofia win as the most likely outcome at 51%, and that call proved correct.

Kairat dominated large portions of the match in terms of possession and attacking volume, finishing with 56% of the ball, nine corner kicks, and 20 total shots compared to Levski's nine. However, the Kazakh side managed only six shots on target and were unable to convert their territorial advantage into an equaliser, with Levski's defensive discipline proving decisive.

Discipline was a recurring theme, with six yellow cards distributed across both teams. Kairat made multiple substitutions in search of a breakthrough, but Levski held firm to secure a vital one-goal advantage heading into the second leg.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

7'
Everton Bala Yellow Card
0–1 13'
Reinaldo assist: Everton Bala
Olzhas Baibek Yellow Card
45+6'
HT 0–1
Olzhas Baibek ⇄ Ismail Bekbolat
46'
Damir Kasabulat Yellow Card
60'
Damir Kasabulat ⇄ Edmilson
64'
74'
Aldair Yellow Card
79'
Aldair ⇄ Mazire Soula
79'
Everton Bala ⇄ Maicon
79'
A. Oko-Flex ⇄ Hevertton Santos
83'
Reinaldo ⇄ J. Perea
Marc Gual ⇄ Mansur Birkurmanov
84'
88'
N. Serafimov Yellow Card
90'
J. Perea Yellow Card
90+2'
Serginho ⇄ Asen Ivanov Mitkov
Yellow Card
90+5'
FT 0–1
Kairat Almaty

Match Stats

Levski Sofia
56% Ball Possession 44%
Expected Goals (xG)
20 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Goal 2
7 Shots off Goal 5
7 Blocked Shots 2
13 Shots insidebox 7
7 Shots outsidebox 2
9 Corner Kicks 4
3 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
Red Cards
1 Goalkeeper Saves 6
490 Total passes 411
418 Passes accurate 342
85% Passes % 83%
goals_prevented
Kairat Almaty
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
44 Lucas Áfrico D 7.5 93' 3 73 (70%) 2
13 Jaakko Oksanen M 7.3 93' 1 66 (60%) 1
19 Oiva Jukkola M 7.3 93' 2 21 (13%) 2
28 Marc Gual F 7.2 84' 3 46 (36%) 3
25 Aleksandr Shirobokov D 7.0 93' 1 77 (67%) 1
4 Damir Kasabulat D 6.9 64' 32 (26%) 1
24 Aleksandr Mrynskiy M 6.9 93' 1 22 (19%) 1
9 Edmilson F 6.7 29' 7 (6%)
22 Gustavo Mendonca M 6.5 93' 35 (28%) 4
15 Mansur Birkurmanov F 6.5 9' 2 1
1 Temirlan Anarbekov G 6.2 93' 23 (21%)
3 Luís Mata D 6.2 93' 50 (41%)
8 Olzhas Baibek M 6.2 45' 27 (23%) 2
81 Ismail Bekbolat F 6.2 48' 8 (7%) 1
Levski Sofia
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
92 S. Vutsov G 8.2 93' 42 (28%)
50 K. Dimitrov D 7.3 93' 37 (34%)
7 Reinaldo F 7.3 83' 1 4 19 (13%)
18 G. Trdin M 7.2 93' 31 (24%) 4
19 El Mehdi Moubarik M 7.2 93' 42 (36%) 3
31 N. Serafimov D 7.0 93' 40 (34%) 1
21 Aldair D 7.0 79' 35 (31%) 2
20 Álex Centelles D 6.9 93' 42 (36%) 2
11 A. Oko-Flex M 6.7 79' 28 (24%)
35 Serginho M 6.7 92' 1 44 (36%) 1
17 Everton Bala M 6.6 79' 1 2 30 (29%) 1
3 Maicon D 6.5 14' 4 (4%)
2 Hevertton Santos D 6.3 14' 2 (2%)
9 J. Perea F 6.2 10' 4 (3%)
22 Mazire Soula F 6.2 14' 7 (5%)
10 Asen Ivanov Mitkov M 1' 1
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Confidence Medium (51%)

At a glance

Our lean
Difficult Levski Sofia win or draw
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Kairat Almaty
LLWWW
Levski Sofia
LDLWW
Last 1 meetings Kairat Almaty · 0W 0D 1L
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
24%
10%
Draw
25%
45%
Away
51%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Kairat Almaty

No scorer data.

Levski Sofia
Reinaldo 3 gls
A. Oko-Flex 2 gls

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Head to Head: Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia

0 Kairat Almaty Wins
0 Draws
1 Levski Sofia Wins
Date Home Score Away
04 Aug 2026 Levski Sofia 1 - 0 Kairat Almaty

Kairat Almaty — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
17 Sep A FC Astana L 1 - 0
13 Sep H FK Tobol Kostanay L 1 - 4
09 Sep H Zhenys W 3 - 0
05 Sep A Kaspiy W 0 - 3
31 Aug A Yelimay Semey W 0 - 2

Levski Sofia — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
17 Sep H Red Bull Salzburg L 0 - 1
13 Sep A Botev Vratsa D 0 - 0
09 Sep H CSKA Sofia L 2 - 4
05 Sep H CSKA 1948 W 1 - 0
02 Sep A Slavia Sofia W 1 - 2

UEFA Champions League Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Paris Saint Germain
1 1 0 0 +5 3
2
Bayern München
1 1 0 0 +5 3
3
Barcelona
1 1 0 0 +4 3
4
Manchester United
1 1 0 0 +4 3
5
Como
1 1 0 0 +3 3
6
VfB Stuttgart
1 1 0 0 +2 3
7
Sporting CP
1 1 0 0 +2 3
8
Manchester City
1 1 0 0 +2 3
9
Aston Villa
1 1 0 0 +1 3
10
Lens
1 1 0 0 +1 3
11
Real Betis
1 1 0 0 +1 3
12
Borussia Dortmund
1 1 0 0 +1 3
13
Liverpool
1 1 0 0 +1 3
14
Real Madrid
1 1 0 0 +1 3
15
Arsenal
1 1 0 0 +1 3
16
AEK Athens FC
1 1 0 0 +1 3
17
AS Roma
1 0 1 0 0 1
18
Shakhtar Donetsk
1 0 1 0 0 1
19
PSV Eindhoven
1 0 1 0 0 1
20
Fenerbahçe
1 0 1 0 0 1
21
Villarreal
1 0 0 1 -1 0
22
Lille
1 0 0 1 -1 0
23
Slavia Praha
1 0 0 1 -1 0
24
Club Brugge KV
1 0 0 1 -1 0
25
Inter
1 0 0 1 -1 0
26
Atletico Madrid
1 0 0 1 -1 0
27
Napoli
1 0 0 1 -1 0
28
Lask Linz
1 0 0 1 -1 0
29
Viking
1 0 0 1 -2 0
30
Galatasaray
1 0 0 1 -2 0
31
FC Porto
1 0 0 1 -2 0
32
RB Leipzig
1 0 0 1 -3 0
33
Feyenoord
1 0 0 1 -4 0
34
Sabah FA
1 0 0 1 -4 0
35
Slovan Bratislava
1 0 0 1 -5 0
36
Bodo/Glimt
1 0 0 1 -5 0

Kairat Almaty

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Rafael Urazbakhtin
1 Anarbekov
3 Mata
44 Áfrico
25 Shirobokov
4 Kasabulat
13 Oksanen
8 Baibek
19 Jukkola
22 Mendonca
24 Mrynskiy
28 Gual

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 Temirlan Anarbekov G
4 Damir Kasabulat D
25 Aleksandr Shirobokov D
44 Lucas Áfrico D
3 Luís Mata D
8 Olzhas Baibek M
13 Jaakko Oksanen M
24 Aleksandr Mrynskiy M
22 Gustavo Mendonca M
19 Oiva Jukkola M
28 Marc Gual F

Substitutes

81 Ismail Bekbolat F
9 Edmilson F
30 Danila Buch G
82 Sherkhan Kalmurza G
5 Lev Kurgin D
20 Erkin Tapalov D
32 Adlan Nurgaliev D
59 Daniyar Tashpulatov D
6 Adilet Sadybekov M
17 Azamat Tuyakbayev M
27 Mukhamedali Abish M
15 Mansur Birkurmanov F

Levski Sofia

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Julio Velazquez
92 Vutsov
20 Centelles
31 Serafimov
50 Dimitrov
21 Aldair
19 Moubarik
18 Trdin
17 Bala
35 Serginho
11 Oko-Flex
7 Reinaldo

Starting XI

# Player Pos
92 Svetoslav Vutsov G
21 Aldair D
50 Kristian Dimitrov D
31 Nikola Serafimov D
20 Álex Centelles D
18 Gašper Trdin M
19 El Mehdi Moubarik M
11 Armstrong Oko-Flex M
35 Serginho M
17 Everton Bala M
7 Reinaldo F

Substitutes

1 Ognyan Vladimirov G
78 Martin Lukov G
2 Hevertton Santos D
3 Maicon D
4 Christian Makoun D
22 Mazire Soula F
10 Asen Ivanov Mitkov M
27 David Kusso F
77 Adrian Raychev F
9 Juan Perea F
28 Steven Stoyanchov F

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