HNK Rijeka vs Ilves Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Post on X

Ilves

Away

AI call HNK Rijeka to win

80%

15%

Home Win · 1.18 Draw · 8.65 Away Win · 25.01

HNK Rijeka vs Ilves prediction: Sportiko gives HNK Rijeka a 80% chance of winning, Ilves 5% and the draw 15%. Last updated 6 Aug 2026, 20:41.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Under 3.5 Goals 73% @ 1.58
1st Half Over 0.5 70%

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Match Report

HNK Rijeka secured a 1–0 victory over Finnish side Ilves in their UEFA Europa Conference League third qualifying round first leg, with the decisive moment arriving early. Niko Janković broke the deadlock in the 16th minute to give the Croatian hosts an advantage they would not relinquish, sending Rijeka into the interval with a slender but well-earned lead.

The match statistics told a clear story of Rijeka's dominance. The home side controlled 66% of possession, registered 14 shots on goal to Ilves's solitary effort, and earned nine corner kicks compared to just one for the visitors. Ilves struggled to make any meaningful impression going forward, and despite both sides making multiple substitutions in the second half, the scoreline remained unchanged. A flurry of yellow cards across both teams added some edge to the contest.

The result was in line with pre-match expectations, with our AI model having rated a Rijeka win as the most likely outcome at 80%. Rijeka will now take a one-goal advantage into the second leg as they bid to advance to the play-off round.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Branko Pavić Yellow Card

11' ▮

Niko Janković assist: Tiago Dantas

16' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 27'

J. Kilo Yellow Card

HT 1–0

Toni Fruk ⇄ Samuele Vignato

46' ⇄

Alfonso Barco Yellow Card

50' ▮

⇄ 59'

T. Hytönen ⇄ R. Riski

⇄ 59'

⇄ O. Multala

Daniel Adu-Adjei ⇄ Jakov Puljić

71' ⇄

Tiago Dantas ⇄ Justas Lasickas

71' ⇄

⇄ 72'

S. Väisänen ⇄ T. Miettunen

⇄ 72'

A. Popovitch

▮ 75'

J. Kanga Yellow Card

⇄ 83'

J. Kanga

Mladen Devetak ⇄ Gabriel Rukavina

84' ⇄

Amer Gojak ⇄ Ivan Ćubelić

90' ⇄

▮ 90+2'

Yellow Card

FT 1–0

HNK Rijeka

Match Stats

Ilves

66% Ball Possession 34%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

14 Shots on Goal 1

5 Shots off Goal 1

7 Blocked Shots 1

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

9 Corner Kicks 1

2 Offsides 0

9 Fouls 8

2 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence High (80%)

At a glance

Our lean

HNK Rijeka to win

Most likely score

2:0 · 15.7%

Both teams to score

39%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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HNK Rijeka

WWWWW

Ilves

LLWWL

Match summary

HNK Rijeka faces Ilves in the UEFA Europa Conference League, with both teams aiming to secure a strong start in the competition. Rijeka boasts a solid home record, with a strong emphasis on possession and attacking play, illustrated by their average of 15 shots per game last season. In contrast, Ilves will rely on their defensive organization and counter-attacking capabilities, having averaged 1.5 goals conceded per match. Key players to watch include Rijeka's top scorer from the domestic league and Ilves' playmaker, who can disrupt opposing defenses. This match is pivotal for both teams as they seek to gain momentum in the group stage.

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: HNK Rijeka leads 1-0. Win probability: 93.9%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 6.1%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. HNK Rijeka leads. Win probability: 91.3%. Over 0.5 more goals: 72.9%.

18' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. HNK Rijeka win: 91.9%. BTTS: 36.1%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

80%

45%

Draw

15%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Ilves goals →

	0	1	2
0	8	3	1
1	14	9	2
2	16	9	2
3	11	6	2
4	6	3	1
5	3	1

↑ HNK Rijeka goals · most likely 2–0 (15.7%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

80%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

80%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

91% Home (No Draw) 9% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

48% Home Win by 2+ 2% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

72% Home Scores More 20% Equal Goals 8% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

26%

23%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.0%	2.8%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
1	13.7%	9.4%	2.3%	0.4%	0.1%
2	15.7%	8.8%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%
3	11.2%	6.3%	1.8%	0.3%	0.1%
4	6.0%	3.3%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

32%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	HNK Rijeka	Draw	Ilves
HNK Rijeka	51.6%	2.9%	0.6%
Draw	20.5%	13.3%	3.7%
Ilves	1.7%	2.1%	3.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

38%

1.5

62%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

Home Exact Goals

12%

26%

28%

20%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

57%

32%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: HNK Rijeka vs Ilves

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

HNK Rijeka — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	H Ilves	W	1 - 0
02 Aug	H Rudes	W	2 - 1
30 Jul	A Derry City	W	0 - 1
23 Jul	H Derry City	W	1 - 0
03 Jul	A Radomlje	W	0 - 1

Ilves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	A HNK Rijeka	L	1 - 0
02 Aug	A AC Oulu	L	1 - 0
30 Jul	H Stjarnan	W	1 - 0
26 Jul	H Lahti	W	1 - 0
23 Jul	A Stjarnan	L	1 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

HNK Rijeka

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Matjaz Kek

99 Todorović

34 Devetak

5 Barco

45 Majstorović

22 Oreč

6 Pavić

26 Dantas

4 Janković

10 Fruk

14 Gojak

18 Adu-Adjei

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
99	Aleksa Todorović	G
22	Ante Oreč	D
45	Ante Majstorović	D
5	Alfonso Barco	M
34	Mladen Devetak	D
26	Tiago Dantas	M
6	Branko Pavić	M
14	Amer Gojak	M
10	Toni Fruk	M
4	Niko Janković	M
18	Daniel Adu-Adjei	F

Substitutes

19	Samuele Vignato	M
23	Justas Lasickas	D
21	Jakov Puljić	F
13	Igor Vekič	G
1	Vito Kovač	G
3	Moreno Živković	D
51	Anel Husić	D
91	Noel Bodetić	D
8	Ivan Ćubelić	M
11	Gabriel Rukavina	M
15	Goran Grulović	F
37	Cherno Saho	F

Ilves

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Joni Lehtonen

12 Krkalić

3 Rale

5 Väisänen

24 Kumpu

19 Bamba

15 Ala-Myllymäki

14 Popovitch

28 Kilo

13 Wallius

9 Hytönen

30 Kanga

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Faris Krkalić	G
19	Abdoul Goudouss Bamba	D
24	Ville Kumpu	D
5	Sauli Väisänen	D
3	Matias Rale	D
28	Jesse Kilo	M
14	Anton Popovitch	M
15	Lauri Ala-Myllymäki	M
30	Jardell Kanga	M
9	Teemu Hytönen	F
13	Kalle Wallius	M

Substitutes

22	Oskari Multala	M
10	Roope Riski	F
16	Tatu Miettunen	D
33	Yacouba Sacko	M
1	Otso Virtanen	G
31	Rasmus Leislahti	G
25	Sebastian Suvanne	D
36	Roope Aho	D
17	Stanislav Baranov	M
45	Elias Tamminen	F