Riga vs Gyori ETO FC Prediction
Riga vs Gyori ETO FC prediction: Sportiko gives Riga a 48% chance of winning, Gyori ETO FC 26% and the draw 26%. Last updated 6 Aug 2026, 18:54.
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Match Report
Riga secured a narrow but significant 1–0 victory over Győri ETO FC in the UEFA Europa Conference League third qualifying round, with the decisive moment arriving as early as the third minute when Bálint Selyem turned the ball into his own net to hand the hosts an early advantage. The Latvian side carried that lead into half-time and ultimately protected it for the full ninety minutes.
Győri dominated possession at 60% and mustered 17 total shots to Riga's four, yet managed only five on target and were further frustrated in the 72nd minute when a goal was ruled out for offside following a VAR review. Riga's two shots on goal proved far more clinical, and a yellow card for Raki Aouani shortly after the disallowed goal added to Győri's difficult evening. Both sides made multiple substitutions in the final half-hour as the Hungarian visitors pushed for an equaliser that never came.
The result was a notable upset given Győri's statistical dominance throughout the match. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Riga win as the most likely outcome at 48%, a call that proved correct. Riga advance to the next round of European competition.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Riga
Match Stats
Riga
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Iago Siqueira Augusto M | 7.9 | 88' | – | – | – | 49 (44%) | 3 |
| 21 B. Musah D | 7.2 | 92' | – | – | 1 | 72 (66%) | – |
| 40 A. Ankrah M | 7.0 | 92' | – | – | – | 55 (47%) | 3 |
| 33 Paulo D | 6.9 | 92' | – | – | 1 | 79 (72%) | – |
| 22 M. Diop M | 6.9 | 77' | – | – | – | 20 (19%) | – |
| 17 A. Salazar D | 6.9 | 88' | – | – | 1 | 74 (58%) | 1 |
| 13 R. Jurkovskis D | 6.9 | 92' | – | – | 3 | 52 (45%) | – |
| 4 O. Galo M | 6.9 | 92' | – | – | 3 | 45 (40%) | 1 |
| 19 M. Badamosi F | 6.6 | 26' | – | – | 1 | 5 (3%) | – |
| 91 Frenks Orols G | 6.6 | 92' | – | – | – | 14 (13%) | – |
| 34 A. Černomordijs D | 6.5 | 15' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | – |
| 25 A. Taiwo F | 6.3 | 15' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 10 Reginaldo Ramires F | 6.2 | 66' | – | – | 2 | 15 (13%) | 1 |
| 7 Raki Aouani M | 6.2 | 77' | – | – | 3 | 24 (20%) | – |
| 23 Maksims Tonisevs D | — | 4' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 18 Salah Oulad M'Hand M | — | 4' | – | – | – | – | – |
Gyori ETO FC
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Ádám Umathum D | 7.3 | 92' | – | – | – | 40 (30%) | 1 |
| 24 Miljan Krpić D | 7.0 | 92' | – | – | – | 60 (54%) | – |
| 11 Nfansu Njie F | 7.0 | 80' | – | – | – | 17 (12%) | – |
| 37 Norbert Urblík D | 7.0 | 92' | – | – | – | 35 (30%) | 2 |
| 99 Samuel Petráš G | 6.9 | 92' | – | – | – | 41 (26%) | – |
| 23 Daniel Štefulj D | 6.5 | 12' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | – |
| 17 Szabolcs Schön M | 6.5 | 91' | – | – | 1 | 22 (20%) | 1 |
| 10 Claudiu Bumba F | 6.5 | 61' | – | – | 1 | 24 (15%) | – |
| 96 Marcell Huszár F | 6.5 | 31' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 53 Bálint Selyem M | 6.3 | 92' | – | – | – | 20 (14%) | 2 |
| 47 Ádám Décsy M | 6.3 | 92' | – | – | – | 32 (28%) | – |
| 34 Viktor Đukanović F | 6.3 | 92' | – | – | 1 | 13 (8%) | – |
| 14 Márton Szép M | 6.2 | 92' | – | – | – | 27 (22%) | 1 |
| 75 Noel Csorba D | — | 1' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
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At a glance
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Live insights
Min 75: Riga leads 1-0. Win probability: 86.6%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 13.4%.
Riga now leads 2-0 with 98.5% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 42.9%.
Half-time: 1-0. Riga leads. Win probability: 79.1%. Over 0.5 more goals: 78.3%.
Goal! Score now 1-0. Riga win: 77.3%. BTTS: 69%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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No scorer data.
N. Njie
2 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Riga vs Gyori ETO FC
No head-to-head history found between these teams.
Riga — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug | H Gyori ETO FC | W | 1 - 0 |
| 02 Aug | H Grobiņa | W | 4 - 0 |
| 28 Jul | H Vardar Skopje | W | 5 - 2 |
| 22 Jul | A Vardar Skopje | W | 2 - 3 |
| 14 Jul | H Ararat-Armenia | W | 3 - 2 |
Gyori ETO FC — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug | A Riga | L | 1 - 0 |
| 02 Aug | H Nyiregyhaza | W | 4 - 0 |
| 30 Jul | H Atert Bissen | D | 1 - 1 |
| 26 Jul | A Vasas | D | 2 - 2 |
| 21 Jul | A Atert Bissen | W | 2 - 6 |
UEFA Europa Conference League Standings
League standings are not available for this competition.
Gyori ETO FC
Formation: 3-4-3
Coach: Efrain Juarez
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 99 | Samuel Petráš | G |
| 26 | Ádám Umathum | D |
| 37 | Norbert Urblík | D |
| 24 | Miljan Krpić | D |
| 53 | Bálint Selyem | M |
| 47 | Ádám Décsy | M |
| 14 | Márton Szép | M |
| 17 | Szabolcs Schön | M |
| 11 | Nfansu Njie | F |
| 34 | Viktor Đukanović | F |
| 10 | Claudiu Bumba | F |
Substitutes
| 96 | Marcell Huszár | F |
| 16 | Balázs Megyeri | G |
| 64 | Dániel Brecska | G |
| 23 | Daniel Štefulj | D |
| 20 | Barnabás Bíró | D |
| 2 | Ștefan Vlădoiu | D |
| 75 | Noel Csorba | D |
| 90 | Kevin Bánáti | M |
| 70 | Imre Tollár | M |
| 18 | Modou Lamin Mass | M |
| 55 | Krisztián Kószás | D |
Riga
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Adrian Gula
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 91 | Frenks Orols | G |
| 13 | Raivis Jurkovskis | D |
| 21 | Baba Musah | D |
| 33 | Paulo | D |
| 17 | Andrés Salazar | D |
| 40 | Ahmed Ankrah | M |
| 4 | Orlando Galo | M |
| 22 | Meïssa Diop | M |
| 8 | Iago Siqueira Augusto | M |
| 7 | Raki Aouani | M |
| 10 | Reginaldo Ramires | F |
Substitutes
| 19 | Muhammed Badamosi | F |
| 1 | Krišjānis Zviedris | G |
| 44 | Marcis Kazainis | G |
| 3 | Abner | D |
| 5 | Karl Gameni Wassom | D |
| 23 | Maksims Tonisevs | D |
| 34 | Antonijs Černomordijs | D |
| 6 | Coli Saco | M |
| 18 | Salah Oulad M'Hand | M |
| 25 | Abdulrahman Taiwo | F |
| 99 | Caio Ferreira | M |