KuPS vs Universitatea Craiova Prediction

UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Post on X

Universitatea Craiova

Away

AI call KuPS or draw

43%

26%

31%

Home Win · 3.54 Draw · 3.50 Away Win · 2.15

KuPS vs Universitatea Craiova prediction: Sportiko gives KuPS a 43% chance of winning, Universitatea Craiova 31% and the draw 26%. Last updated 6 Aug 2026, 16:57.

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Over 1.5 Goals 76% @ 1.30
1st Half Over 0.5 73%
2nd Half Over 0.5 72%

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Match Report

KuPS and Universitatea Craiova played out a 1–1 draw in their UEFA Europa League third qualifying round first leg, with the Romanian side taking the lead before the hosts hit back in the second half. Craiova broke the deadlock on 38 minutes through Ștefan Baiaram, giving them a 1–0 advantage at the interval.

Both teams made multiple changes around the hour mark, with Craiova withdrawing Baiaram along with Alexandru Cicâldău and Steven Nsimba on 59 minutes. KuPS responded positively to the tactical reshuffling, and an unnamed scorer levelled the tie on 72 minutes to restore parity. Despite Craiova's superior shot accuracy — registering four shots on goal to KuPS's one — the Finnish side's 54 percent possession helped them control large spells of the contest. Yellow cards were shown to C. Antwi, Adrian Rus, and S. Heiskanen across the 90 minutes.

The draw leaves the tie finely balanced ahead of the second leg. Notably, our pre-match AI model had rated a KuPS win as the most likely outcome at 43 percent, a call that ultimately proved correct on the night.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

C. Antwi Yellow Card

36' ▮

⚽ 0–1 38'

Ștefan Baiaram assist: Adrian Rus

HT 0–1

⇄ 59'

Alexandru Cicâldău ⇄ Samuel Teles

⇄ 59'

Steven Nsimba

⇄ 59'

Ștefan Baiaram ⇄ David Matei

B. Armah

60' ⇄

V. Gasc ⇄ S. Savolainen

60' ⇄

⇄ P. Parzyszek

60' ⇄

▮ 68'

Adrian Rus Yellow Card

72' ⚽ 1–1

J. Luyeye-Lutumba ⇄ A. Heinonen

73' ⇄

⇄ 73'

Monday Etim ⇄ Heriberto Tavares

C. Antwi ⇄ S. Heiskanen

83' ⇄

S. Heiskanen Yellow Card

88' ▮

⇄ 90+5'

Anzor Mekvabishvili ⇄ Tudor Băluță

FT 1–1

KuPS

Match Stats

Universitatea Craiova

54% Ball Possession 46%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

1 Shots on Goal 4

2 Shots off Goal 3

1 Blocked Shots 1

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

6 Corner Kicks 2

7 Offsides 0

17 Fouls 11

2 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Low (43%)

At a glance

Our lean

KuPS or draw

Most likely score

2:0 · 13.7%

Both teams to score

45%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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KuPS

DWLWL

Universitatea Craiova

DWDLL

Match summary

In the UEFA Europa League clash, KuPS will face Universitatea Craiova. KuPS has shown resilience in their domestic league, leveraging a solid defense that has conceded an average of only 1 goal per match in their last five fixtures. Conversely, Universitatea Craiova maintains a potent attack, scoring an average of 2 goals per match in their recent outings. Both teams will need to capitalize on set pieces, as both have shown vulnerabilities in defending corners. The outcome may hinge on KuPS's ability to withstand Craiova's offensive pressure while finding opportunities on the counterattack.

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 66.9%. Late goal chance: 35.9%.

73' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 63.9%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-1. Universitatea Craiova leads. Win probability: 49.8%. Over 0.5 more goals: 72.9%.

39' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 0-1. Universitatea Craiova win: 46.8%. BTTS: 67.8%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Universitatea Craiova goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	8	4	2
1	12	11	3	1
2	14	10	3	1
3	9	6	2	1
4	5	3	1
5	2	1

↑ KuPS goals · most likely 2–0 (13.7%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

43%

Away Win

31%

Draw

26%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

43%

Away Win

31%

Draw

26%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

86% Home (No Draw) 14% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

42% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

66% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 11% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.1%	3.5%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
1	12.4%	10.8%	3.4%	0.8%	0.1%
2	13.7%	9.6%	3.4%	0.8%	0.1%
3	9.1%	6.4%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%
4	4.6%	3.2%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

33%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	KuPS	Draw	Universitatea Craiova
KuPS	51.1%	4.5%	1.1%
Draw	15.5%	14.3%	5.7%
Universitatea Craiova	1.2%	2.0%	4.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

41%

1.5

59%

69%

2.5

31%

87%

3.5

13%

Home Exact Goals

14%

28%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

97%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

50%

35%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

77%

0.5

23%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: KuPS vs Universitatea Craiova

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

KuPS — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	H Universitatea Craiova	D	1 - 1
01 Aug	A Gnistan	W	0 - 1
28 Jul	H Sabah FA	L	0 - 2
25 Jul	H VPS	W	3 - 1
21 Jul	A Sabah FA	L	1 - 0

Universitatea Craiova — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	A KuPS	D	1 - 1
01 Aug	H Petrolul Ploiesti	W	4 - 0
29 Jul	H Levski Sofia	D	2 - 2
25 Jul	A Dinamo Bucuresti	L	5 - 1
22 Jul	A Levski Sofia	L	1 - 0

UEFA Europa League Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

KuPS

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Miika Nuutinen

12 Riihimäki

25 Antwi

4 Adams

28 Magassa

29 Puukko

22 Touray

10 Gasc

24 Armah

16 Jyry

21 Luyeye-Lutumba

11 Moreno

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Hemmo Riihimäki	G
29	Akseli Puukko	D
28	Brahima Magassa	D
4	Kasim Adams	D
25	Clinton Antwi	D
10	Valentín Gasc	M
22	Saikou Touray	M
21	Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba	M
16	Tommi Jyry	M
24	Bob Nii Armah	D
11	Jaime Moreno	F

Substitutes

6	Saku Savolainen	D
19	Calvin Kabuye	F
20	Piotr Parzyszek	F
37	Kasperi Silen	G
33	Taneli Hämäläinen	D
23	Arttu Lötjönen	D
13	Niilo Kujasalo	M
17	Arttu Heinonen	M
3	Saku Heiskanen	M

Universitatea Craiova

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Filipe Coelho

21 Popescu

6 Screciu

24 Stevanović

28 Rus

11 Bancu

5 Mekvabishvili

20 Cicâldău

17 Mora

10 Baiaram

7 Nsimba

12 Etim

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
21	Laurenţiu Popescu	G
28	Adrian Rus	D
24	Nikola Stevanović	D
6	Vladimir Screciu	D
17	Carlos Mora	M
20	Alexandru Cicâldău	M
5	Anzor Mekvabishvili	M
11	Nicușor Bancu	M
12	Monday Etim	F
7	Steven Nsimba	F
10	Ștefan Baiaram	F

Substitutes

23	Samuel Teles	M
30	David Matei	M
9	Assad Al-Hamlawi	F
90	Răzvan Sava	G
1	Alexandru Maxim	G
3	Oleksandr Romanchuk	D
29	Luca Băsceanu	M
4	Alexandru Crețu	M
8	Tudor Băluță	M
18	Mihnea Rădulescu	M
22	Simon Elisor	F
19	Heriberto Tavares	F